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IEA: Low diversity of critical mineral markets can hurt the industry

IEA: Low diversity of critical mineral markets can hurt the industry

The IEA warned in a Wednesday report that the concentration of the mineral market, especially in the refining, processing and export restrictions sectors, could lead to painful disruptions.

In recent years, the use of critical mineral has increased due to energy transition projects, such as electric cars, battery storage, renewables, and grid networks. The industry has also consolidated into a few large players.

Fatih Bibil, Executive Director of the IEA, said: "Even if a market is well-supplied, supply shocks can still be a problem, whether they are caused by extreme weather conditions, a failure in technology or trade disruptions."

He said that a supply-shock can have a far-reaching impact, leading to higher prices for consumers as well as a reduction in industrial competitiveness.

The IEA stated that the average share of top three suppliers will decline marginally to 82% by 2035, returning effectively to the levels of concentration seen in 2020.

China, which is the dominant player in the industry, will continue to expand its refining capability at a faster rate than the rest the world until 2035. It has also added to the global battery recycling capacities by two thirds since 2020.

The IEA stated that this high concentration of minerals increases the supply shock risk on the global market, particularly with the increasing number of export controls on critical mineral.

The mining industry is also expected to follow a similar trend. Copper, nickel, and cobalt are likely to be less diverse, while lithium, graphite, and rare earths will see fewer concentrations.

The IEA stated that the current copper mine project pipeline could lead to a 30% shortfall in supply by 2035, due to declining ore grade, increasing capital costs, limited resources discoveries, and long lead time.

The rapidly increasing demand for lithium as part of the energy transformation is expected to push market deficits by 2030. However, the prospects for developing new projects are better than those for copper.

(source: Reuters)