Latest News

Gold prices record helps keep China's copper-smelters running despite losses

The soaring prices of gold and other byproducts keep China's copper-smelters afloat. They could prevent significant production cuts in this year, despite the fact that a key indicator of profitability is forecast to fall even further.

China's copper industry is suffering from a severe slump as a growing number of furnaces compete for limited concentrate supplies. The smelting capacity has increased by a quarter from 2021, and it is expected to increase around 10% this coming year.

Six traders and analysts believe that the fees smelters pay for refining ore (called concentrate treatment and refinement charges, TC/RCs) are already negative, and will continue to decline. Negative TC/RCs means that smelters have to pay traders or miners in order to convert concentrate into metal.

They said that despite the dire TC/RCs, smelters will not cut production significantly because the high prices of smelting products like gold and sulfur partially offset losses.

According to one trader who told him he heard about a TC/RC contract at minus $80.00 per metric ton, or minus 8.02 cents per pound, the record prices for gold offset some of losses in processing concentrate rich with gold.

Three sources say that older, smaller smelters, without advanced technology for extracting gold and other byproducts, will struggle because they account for only a small portion of production. These facilities will not be affected by the closures or cuts.

According to Shanghai Metals Market, the copper concentrates TC/RC Index hit a new record low on April 18 of -$34.71 a metric ton. This is a minus $3.47 cents if you weigh it.

Analysts at Mysteel expect the refined copper output this year to increase by 10%.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates that China has increased its copper smelting capacities by 12.78 million tonnes this year. This is up 8% over last year and by 25% since 2021.

Official data shows that China's refined output of copper decreased only 0.5% on an annual basis to 3.35 millions metric tons during the first quarter. Reporting by Violet Li, Lewis Jackson and Saad Sayeed

(source: Reuters)