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US consumer prices mild in March, before the tariff tsunami

U.S. consumer price increases are likely to have been marginal in March. However, inflation risks are on the rise after President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese imports while lowering duties on goods from other countries.

The Labor Department report on Thursday is likely to capture just a fraction (if any) of Trump's first wave of import duties. This includes a 20% tariff for Chinese goods and levies against steel and aluminum. Trump views tariffs as an instrument to raise revenue in order to offset the promised tax cuts, and to revitalize a declining U.S. industry.

The March CPI data may feel outdated, but it should shed light on the way that pricing was already being affected by the changing economic environment, said Sarah House. She is a senior economist with Wells Fargo.

The consumer price index likely edged up 0.1% last month, a survey of economists showed, reflecting lower energy costs and the fading effects of beginning-of-the-year price hikes. The CPI increased by 0.2% in February.

The CPI is expected to rise 2.6% in the 12-month period ending March after increasing 2.8% in February.

Trump announced on Wednesday that he will temporarily lower the new tariffs for many countries, to 10%. This comes less than 24 hours following the onset of steep new duties and financial markets in turmoil.

Trump increased duties on Chinese goods to 125%, up from 104%. This was after Beijing retaliated with an 84% tariff against U.S. products. Trump did not mention the European Union, which also responded with its own duties.

"Our working hypothesis is that Trump, intimidated by the market's response, will extend the pause repeatedly, meaning that it will look a lot more like the 10% tariff that he ran on," said Paul Ashworth. He's the chief North America economist for Capital Economics. "We expect U.S. inflation to peak around 4%."

The minutes of the U.S. Central Bank's March 18-19 Meeting published on Wednesday revealed that policymakers were almost unanimous in their belief that the economy was at risk of both higher inflation and slower economic growth.

The report noted that "participants believed that the effect of tariff increases would likely boost inflation this year" and "their contact reported an increase in cost, possibly anticipating rising tariffs."

The financial markets anticipate that the Fed will resume cutting rates in June after pausing its easing cycle to allow officials to evaluate the economic impact the White House policies. The Fed's current policy rate ranges between 4.25% and 4.50%.

CPI, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, was expected to increase by 0.3% in march after rising 0.2% in february. Core CPI inflation is expected to have risen 3.0% in March, after having risen 3.1% in February.

A softening of the labor market is expected to limit wage increases. The expected services deflation was offset by the goods inflation. Reporting by Lucia Muttikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci

(source: Reuters)