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Fed's Kugler: Tariffs could cause inflation to be prolonged

Fed Governor Adriana Kulgler argued on Wednesday that rising tariffs could lead to a longer period of inflation than expected. She disputed the view that only imported goods would see an increase in price.

Kugler stated that "there may be reasons" why tariffs cause a more lasting effect than merely a spike in the price for imported goods.

New tariffs already implemented by President

Donald Trump

Target intermediate goods such as aluminum and steel.

Kugler, speaking at an event held at Princeton University, said that "this will affect all sectors via supply chain networks...It might take longer to filter this through the economy."

She said that the possibility of retaliation from other countries, and a possible shift in U.S. expectations of inflation, could also have an impact. As could the risk of tariffs distorting prices so much, it could shift capital to produce goods "into which we may not have a competitive advantage."

Kugler stated, "That means we will be paying more for products that could have been made cheaper elsewhere."

Kugler spoke at a time when Trump was introducing a new set of levies around the world. Some countries will be hit with hefty new tariffs of up to 46%, while historic allies such as the European Union are being hit with levies of 20%.

Some Fed officials are concerned that Trump's actions could slow down growth in the coming months, even though prices continue to rise. This is a difficult situation for a central banks charged with maintaining prices and employment.

Kugler stated that "we are already seeing upside risks in inflation...We might also see a slight slowdown down the road."

Right now she said she felt higher-than-anticipated inflation was the bigger risk, particularly given that consumers seemed to be frontrunning tariffs with auto purchases, for example, that may add to growth in the near term.

In remarks prepared for the occasion, she said that she supports keeping the Fed's current rate of interest steady "for so long as these inflation risks continue" given the continued economic growth and stable employment.

Fed officials said that they wanted more clarity about the impact of Donald Trump's policy. Fed policymakers expect slower growth and higher inflation in 2019 than they did last year before Trump's tariffs became more clear. Howard Schneider is reporting; Paul Simao, Diane Craft and Diane Craft are editing.

(source: Reuters)