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Tigray officials warn that Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the path to war

Officials in an Ethiopian region at a centre of tensions warned that Ethiopia and Eritrea, long-time enemies, could be heading towards war. This would risk another humanitarian catastrophe in the Horn of Africa.

Analysts said that direct clashes between the two largest African armies could be the death blow to a historic rapprochement, for which Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for in 2019. It may also attract other regional powers.

This would likely cause another crisis in the region, where cuts in aid have made it difficult to help millions of people affected by conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia.

The Africa Report, an African-focused magazine, published a Monday article by General Tsadkan Ghretensae. He is a vice-president in the interim government in Ethiopia's Tigray Region.

The civil war between Ethiopia's central Government and the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF), which will take place in Tigray from 2020-2022, has killed thousands.

Fears of a renewed conflict are related to the TPLF splitting last year, with one faction administering Tigray under the blessings of Ethiopia's Federal Government and another opposing it.

The dissident group, who Tsadkan claimed was seeking an alliance with Eritrea on Tuesday, took control of Adigrat, a northern town.

Getachew Reda is the interim head of Tigray. He has asked for the support of the government against the dissidents who deny any ties with Eritrea.

Getachew said at a press conference on Monday that there was a clear animosity between Ethiopia and Eritrea. "What worries me is the possibility that the Tigray may become once again victims of a conflict they do not believe in."

"DRY TINDER WAITING TO MATCH"

The federal government of Ethiopia has not made any comments on the tensions. Eritrea’s Information Minister dismissed Tsadkan’s warnings as “war-mongering schizophrenia”.

Human Rights Concern-Eritrea, a UK-based organisation, claims that Eritrea has ordered a national military mobilization since mid-February.

Two diplomatic sources, and two Tigrayan official, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the situation, said that Ethiopia sent troops to the Eritrean frontier this month.

Could not independently verify this development. The Eritrean government and Ethiopian government spokespersons did not respond when asked for comments.

Former U.S. and EU ambassadors in the region Payton Knopf, and Alexander Rondos say that the prospect of a new conflict is real.

In an article published by the U.S. magazine Foreign Policy, they said: "The deterioration in the political and security conditions in Tigray are dry tinder just waiting for a spark."

The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been fraught for a long time.

After a 30-year struggle for independence, Eritrea separated from Ethiopia in September 1993. After a 30-year struggle for independence, the neighbours fought a border war from 1998 to 2000.

The two countries remained at war informally until 2018, when Abiy, the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki and other leaders agreed to normalise relations. Eritrean forces even supported Ethiopian federal troops against TPLF rebels in the Tigray Civil War.

The relationship was once again strained when Eritrea was excluded from the subsequent peace talks.

Eritrean officials are angry at Abiy's repeated declarations since 2023, that Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has the right to access the sea. Some analysts interpret these comments as a threat of military action, against Eritrea which is located on Red Sea.

In October last year, Eritrea signed a security agreement with Egypt and Somalia, which was widely viewed as an attempt to counter Ethiopia's expansionist intentions.

(source: Reuters)