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Trump threatens to strike Iran’s electric power plants and bridges
Donald Trump, the U.S. President, warned late on Thursday that he would destroy bridges and electric power plants across Iran. This was his latest threat of destroying Iran's infrastructure. The U.S. Military "hasn't yet started to destroy what's remaining in Iran." Trump posted on Twitter that he would be focusing his attention next on bridges, followed by electric power plants. In his post, he said that Iran’s leadership "knows" what needs to be done and "has to be done FAST!" Trump, who previously has offered shifting timelines for the war and different objectives, said in a televised address on Wednesday that if Iran refused to 'give in' to Washington, the war would escalate, and possible strikes against its oil and energy infrastructure could be launched. The U.S. government released an open letter on Thursday in which dozens of international law experts said that the U.S.'s strikes against Iran could amount to war crimes. The 1949 Geneva Conventions on Humanitarian Conduct in War prohibits attacks on sites considered vital for civilians. According to the Geneva Conventions and their additional protocols, parties in a military conflict are required to distinguish between "civil objects and military targets" and attacks on civilians are prohibited. "We will hit them very hard over the next two to three week." Trump stated in his Wednesday speech that "we are going to take them back to their Stone Ages where they belong." Trump did not give a timetable for the end of the war, despite his claim that Washington is nearing completion of its goals in Iran. The U.S. and Israel began the war on 28 February when they attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated by launching attacks on Israel and Gulf States with U.S. base. The joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as Israeli attacks in Lebanon, have resulted in the deaths of thousands. The war has also?raised oil prices and shook?global market? Trump's contradictory messages have not helped ease concerns about his country's largest military attack since 2003's invasion of Iraq. Kanishka Singh reported from Washington, Himani Sarkar edited by Raju Gopalakrishnan.
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Aluminium falls on a stronger dollar but is headed for the biggest weekly gain of a month
Aluminum prices fell on Friday as a stronger currency and mounting fears of an economic recession - after fading hopes for a quick 'end' to the Iran War - outweighed supply concerns that kept the metals on course for a week gain. As of 0152 GMT, the most traded aluminium at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.66% to 24,690 yuan (US$3,586.94). This week it has gained 3.2%, which is the largest weekly gain for a month. The London 'Metal Exchange (LME), which is closed for Easter on Friday and Monday, will remain closed. The dollar increased after U.S. president Donald Trump's speech about Iran shattered market expectations of a quick end to the war and rekindled fears of inflation, interest rate increases, and a possible recession. The dollar's strength makes commodities priced in greenbacks less affordable to investors who use other currencies. Prices for the light metal, which is used in construction, packaging, and transport, reached a near four-year high earlier this week. The attacks by Iran on two Middle East aluminium manufacturers heightened fears that the Gulf region, which accounted for 9% of global supply before the war, would suffer a greater'supply loss. The Iranian war has tightened global supply, boosting margins and causing some of the earlier estimates for flat shipments to be revised higher. Other SHFE metals saw a 0.1% drop in copper, a 0.09 percent decline in nickel, a 0.55% decrease for tin, and 1.18% reductions in zinc, while lead increased by 0.18%.
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McGeever: The 'no hire' US economy is exposed by the war in Iran.
The U.S. employment?growth has virtually slowed to a standstill. This was acceptable for policymakers and investors before the Iran war. It shouldn't be so now. Since a while, the labor market has steadily declined, but it has been hidden by a?headline unemployment rate that has risen, but only gradually. It is still low by historical standards at 4.4%. The labor market is stagnant. JOLTS, the closely watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released this week, showed that hiring has now reached its lowest level since April 2020. It's possible that hiring will not pick up in the next few months. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures are expected on Friday to show that the U.S. created a total of 60,000 nonfarm jobs in March. This would give a monthly average of around 30,000 in the first three months. The average six-month monthly payroll growth was negative just a few months back. This is not sustainable for the world's largest economy, a $30 trillion juggernaut, with a workforce of 170 million. The increase in incomes leads to an increase in spending, economic activity and, ultimately, growth. Low hiring slows down the flow of tax revenue into the government's coffers. This puts a strain on public finances. BREAKEVEN JOB GROWTH IS NOW AROUND ZERO The fall in "breakeven" employment growth can explain the puzzle of a relatively stable unemployment rate despite evaporating jobs growth. This is the level of employment required to maintain the unemployment rate. According to a Dallas Fed report published this week, three years ago there were around 250,000 new jobs created each month. It has been declining steadily ever since and is now almost zero. This means that the unemployment rate is stable even if the economy barely creates any jobs. Normaly, a slowing of the?demand for employees should be a warning sign that the unemployment rate will soon rise, that the economy has slowed, and the recession risk is increasing. A job growth rate below the estimated breakeven level is a more alarming warning. The labor supply is also decreasing rapidly. This is largely because of the Trump administration’s policy to reduce net immigration. The longer-term impacts are yet to be determined. Currently, however, they are compensating for the decline in hiring. The jobs market might appear stable from the outside if the labor supply and demand is roughly equal, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. It's a bad labor market. No longer so ruthless or confident The fragile labor market is also more susceptible to breaking, which puts the delicate balance at risk. Energy prices are structurally higher and inflation is rising due to the supply shocks caused by the Middle East conflict. These prices will continue to rise at least through the end of this year and possibly beyond. This means that consumers' bills and company costs are likely to increase. Gasoline is over $4 per gallon and oil is above $100 a barrel. Household budgets are under pressure. The financial climate has tightened and businesses have been hampered by rising input costs, such as energy and transportation. Spring and summer season factors are also a hindrance to hiring. The Federal Reserve ?paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle in January, and policymakers seemed more confident that downside risks to the labor market were diminishing. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that artificial intelligence-driven productivity growth could help complement the "low-hire and low-fire" labor dynamics, which he believes will keep inflation under control. This was a common view before the Iran War. The economy is looking less robust, much like the labor market. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trafigura denies Bolivia's claim of its fuel contract being suspended
Trafigura has not ceased its contracts with Bolivia's oil and gas state company YPFB, a spokesperson for the company said on Thursday. The company was rejecting a claim made by Bolivian Energy Minister Mauricio Medinaceli. Medinaceli announced on Tuesday that Bolivia will suspend its gasoline contracts Trafigura, and with rival trading house Vitol, until the investigation into the alleged smuggling of poor-quality fuel from Chile is completed. Later, on Thursday, YPFB confirmed its main supply contracts are still in effect, ensuring a?continuity of supply. The state-owned company has announced that it has signed an addition to its existing contract with Vitol in order to set stricter limits on gum and manganese. YPFB stated in a press release that the?new quality standards exceed current Bolivian regulation and will be implemented without additional costs to the state. The spokesperson for Trafigura said that the contracts between Trafigura & YPFB did not include the supply of fuel. "Trafigura always fulfilled its contractual obligations and received no complaints or claims from YPFB relating?to product quality or 'any other?? matter. The contracts are still in force and not suspended." Vitol couldn't be reached immediately for comment. Medinaceli announced the decision 'after the government reported that 5,000 tanker truck carrying adulterated gasoline had entered Bolivia through a transnational network of smugglers. It is estimated that $150 million in adulterated gas was moved between October 2025 to March 2026. Reporting by Robert Harvey and Daniel Ramos in London; Editing by Jan Harvey
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Oil prices soar and stocks end in volatile trade
Oil prices soared on Thursday, and equity markets around the globe were volatile as traders weighed contradictory developments and remarks related to Iran war. As some major Wall Street indices and U.S. Bond prices retraced gains after news broke that Iran and Oman were drafting a protocol to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The day after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will "hit Iran extremely hard" over the next few weeks, and "bring [them] back to the Stone Ages," the U.S. oil prices soared by nearly 8%. Wall Street's stocks finished mixed on the last trading day of the week before Good Friday. Gold prices dropped as the U.S. Dollar gained. Government bond yields increased on the expectation that an inflation spike would force central banks to increase interest rates or at least hold them. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies, including the yen and the euro) rose by 0.44%. Felix-Antoine Vezina Pouirier, BCA Research, said that Tehran and Washington had exchanged a cacophony in the last 48 hours. Some of these statements suggested a rising likelihood of de-escalation. GeoMacro strategists provide a simple guideline for weighing headlines that are volatile: stick to the facts. The shipping through Hormuz increased in the last few days. Second, Iran has deliberately "shifted away from GCC targets (Gulf Cooperation Council), toward 'Israeli' targets." WALL STREET POINTS WERE LOWER The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 0.35%, to 993.18. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.13%, to 46,504,67. The S&P 500 gained 0.11%, to 6,582.69, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.18%, to 21,879.18. In an address that was closely watched on Wednesday, Trump stated that U.S. attack on Iran will be intensified in the next two-three weeks. This was just one day after Trump said the U.S. will be "out Iran pretty soon." Both the pan-European STOXX 600 and Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 indexs lost 0.2%. The Kospi Index in South Korea fell 4.7%. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior rate strategist at TD Securities said: "The only question that matters is whether or not the Strait of Hormuz opens soon." Trump said earlier on Wednesday that the U.S. The U.S. Spot gold dropped 1.85% to $4.669.05 per ounce, and U.S. Gold Futures fell 2.8% at $4.679.70. India's central banks has banned the trading of non-deliverable futures to stop the rupee from falling to record lows. The currency rose 2% after the move, but analysts were unsure how long it would last. Brent?futures rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate ended up 11.41% at $111.54. Jon Withaar, Pictet Asset Management, said that the fact that "boots on the ground" were not ruled-out (during Trump’s TV address), and that the threats to strike infrastructure were repeated, would put the market 'on the defensive'. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note fell by 1.6 basis points to?4.305%. The yield on the two-year notes, which usually moves in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve was flat at 3.803%. The yields on the benchmark Bunds in the Eurozone ended a three-day slide and traders increased their bets that interest rates will rise. The yield of the benchmark German 10-year increased by 0.1 basis points, to 2.996%.
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Israel's Leviathan Gas Field to resume operation after war shutdown: Energy Ministry
The 'Israeli energy minister' announced a resumption of?operations at the offshore israeli?Leviathan field after a one-month war shutdown. Since the U.S., Israel and Iran launched their attacks against Iran on February 28, the?field operated by Chevron has been closed. In a press release, a spokesperson for the energy ministry said that "after situation assessments and an?review? of all relevant factors?it has been decided at this stage?to return?the Leviathan platform?to operation. The supply of natural gas will continue to be supplied to the local market and will now be increased by adding another platform to the production systems. Leviathan, one of the largest gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean with a recoverable gas estimated at 635?bcm, is a large gas field. Chevron, along with its partners, approved plans in January to 'vastly increase production' at the field. The resulting?project is expected to supply Egypt and other countries with natural gas worth more than $35 billion. The expansion is expected to 'boost gas supplies from Leviathan in the region and Europe by 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, flowing at about?21bcm.
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Pakistan increases fuel prices by more than 50% amid escalating Mideast conflict
Pakistan raised consumer prices for petrol and diesel by more than 50% on Thursday, its second price hike in less than one month. This was due to the rising global oil prices, which were sparked by the conflict in the Middle East. Diesel prices will rise by more than 55%, to 520.35 Rupees ($1.88) a litre. Petrol prices are expected to increase by 55% or so to 458.40 Rupees a litre. The price increase was inevitable due to the international markets prices spiraling out of control following the US-Iran War, Pakistan's Petroleum Minister, Ali Pervaiz?Malik said at a press conference broadcast on state television. He also spoke with the country's Finance Minister. Last month, the South Asian country raised the prices of diesel and petrol for consumers by around?20%. They cited higher oil prices caused by the U.S./Israeli war against?Iran. This decision will likely lead to a rise in inflation, which will hit Pakistan's poor population. Pakistan imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia and UAE via the Strait of Hormuz. In a separate news conference, the country's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb announced subsides aimed at providing relief to?small farmers and motorcyclists as well as intercity transportation goods and passengers. Malik stated that the government has given a subsidy worth 129 billion rupees over the past three weeks. However, it is no longer affordable because of the increase in international oil prices. He said that, "Since resources are limited and no end to the war is in sight," there was no way to continue with blanket subsidies. U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 11% on Thursday. Brent prices also soared in volatile trading, a day after Donald Trump announced that military operations will be intensified.
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Bloomberg News reports that SpaceX aims to raise more than $2 trillion in its IPO.
Bloomberg News reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX boosted?its IPO target valuation above $2 trillion. Citing people familiar with the issue, the report set the stage for the biggest stock market listing ever. Bloomberg News reported that SpaceX's advisers and SpaceX are circulating the figure?to potential investors for its initial public offering. They added that the details of the IPO may still change. The startup recently submitted confidential IPO paperwork to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and plans to launch its market later this year. According to the report, Starbase, Texas, a firm headquartered in Texas, could raise up to $75?billion. This would surpass the 2019 IPO by Saudi Aramco which is the largest ever. A previous expectation of $1.75 trillion valuation already sparked debate about how much value was driven SpaceX's cash generating Starlink business, and how much premium could be added to its dominance of space launches and unproven ventures like Starship and space based AI. SpaceX didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The IPO 'comes a few months after Musk merged SpaceX and his artificial intelligence startup xAI in a deal valued at $1 trillion for the rocket company, and $250 billion for Grok, its chatbot developer. Rocket maker is lining up investors for its IPO well in advance. ?It had discussed?with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund taking an anchor stake in the IPO of about $5 billion, reported on Thursday.
Metal prices rise for US manufacturers as tariffs approach
In the past two weeks the price of steel Glen Calder purchases for his small machinery manufacturing factory in South Carolina has risen over 15%, but Brian Nelson's Illinois factory can't even get current prices from its suppliers.
Nelson said, "They are waiting for tariffs." Although President Donald Trump's tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminium are not scheduled to begin until March 12, their impact is already being felt by the producers and builders who rely on these metals for the production of their products. It's not good.
Trump ran on a pledge to use tariffs as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing. He also sees the additional revenue as a means to offset lost federal revenues from his tax cuts. Tariffs on imported aluminum and steel, while helping U.S. mills to increase their prices, translate quickly into higher prices for producers who purchase and process these metals into fridges, cars, and combines. The U.S. steel prices have risen in recent days. This is in addition to the gains made since Trump was elected president. According to Fastmarkets, hot rolled coils in the Midwest have increased 12% since the beginning of the month to $839 a short ton. They've also risen 20% since Trump became president on January 20. In contrast, prices of this type of steel have risen by only 6% in Northern Europe and barely changed in Eastern China since January 20, according to data provider Fastmarkets. According to a new Bain & Co. survey, 40% of chief executives and top executives expect double-digit increases to their input costs as a result of tariffs. About 80% have revised or are considering revising financial projections to reflect the increased costs. Leon Topalian was the CEO of Nucor, the largest U.S. steelmaker, and he praised Trump's plans for tariffs earlier this month, calling them the first steps of "his America First Trade Agenda." Nucor raised the price of hot-rolled coils for the fourth time in the past year.
'MIDDLE GUY' IN THE SANDWICH: Buyers usually acquire metals directly from mills, or via so-called "service centers", smaller businesses who buy metal in bulk and then process it into the forms required by buyers, like being cut to specific lengths.
Nelson, CEO of HCC, Mendota in Illinois, purchases both ways. He has not been able, at this time, to obtain price quotes from any of his usual sources. He was told by his senior buyer that mills had canceled orders, placed orders on hold and increased lead time due to the tariff uncertainty. He said that "lead times have been pushed back" because customers are panic-buying. He compares his business with being squeezed both above and below.
HCC manufactures harvesting reels, some of which are over 30 feet in length, for large combines and other parts for big reapers. HCC is stuck between steel producers and their customers, large farm equipment manufacturers like Deere or AGCO.
Nelson told us he had just spoken to a big manufacturer who asked how much of the tariff-related steel price increase he planned to absorb. I said that we'll pass the cost on to you, and you can decide whether you'd like to pass on this price increase to your customers.
The price of factory inputs is already rising. The price of factory inputs is already on the rise.
Survey released on Friday
S&P Global reported that the price index for inputs paid by companies increased from 57.4 to 58.5 in January. The manufacturing index, which rose to 63.5 last month from 57.4 the previous month, was also a major contributor. "Purchasing managers blamed tariffs and supplier-driven increases in prices for this increase,"
A White House spokesperson said that tariffs were only one part of an administration's economic agenda. This included cutting regulations, reducing energy costs, and reining in inflation. Spending cuts will also lower interest rates, and make U.S. Steel and Aluminum producers more competitive.
The White House spokesperson said that the tariffs were meant to provide breathing space to domestic producers of aluminum and steel, and to help them reach their full capacity. The price of aluminum and steel will increase as a result.
Glen Calder is resigned to the fact that he will have to absorb these costs. Calder Brothers in Taylors produces paving machines worth $200,000 that are sold by asphalt contractors to municipalities and for tasks like paving subdivision streets and parking lots.
He's already seen a spike in his steel prices over the past few weeks and has been warned that he can expect to see more.
In an interview on February 17, he stated that "as of this morning my steel prices have increased 15.2% since the beginning" of the month. "My machine prices aren't 15.2% higher, I can assure you." Calder's factory of 100 employees competes with four other domestic firms. He said that business was slow, which he attributed to customers who were hesitant to purchase new machines due to still-high interest rates.
Calder said, "This isn't the time to raise my prices."
More than just metal steel isn't the only thing that causes him problems. The large U.S. manufacturer Cummins sells him heavy-duty engines, but the model that is designed for his machines was produced in China by the Indiana-based firm. Trump's administration increased tariffs against China by 10% in the first month of this year.
As manufacturers prepare for the future, they rely on the memory of the last time that the U.S. imposed new tariffs on metals in 2018 during the first Trump Administration.
A.H. McElroy II (CEO of McElroy Manufacturing, Tulsa) said that the price increase is inevitable. He said that, in the past, the prices of domestic suppliers did not match those of imports. He said that "they raise it just below" the import prices.
McElroy's firm makes machines to weld plastic pipes. He said that raw steel was only a small portion of the overall cost of the company, but that many of its suppliers used the metal and aluminum to make the components they provided him.
The company surveyed its top 15 raw material suppliers to get a better idea of their exposure. The responses ranged from "zero effect anticipated" by tariffs to "full assurance that our costs will rise as domestic demand increases, and producers increase their prices." (Reporting from Timothy Aeppel and Eric Onstad, both in New York; editing by Dan Burns and Claudia Parsons.)
(source: Reuters)