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The FOREX Dollar falls as US inflation data holds off rate hike
Dollar fell on Wednesday, after data revealed that U.S. consumer prices rose to their highest level in 3 years in May. The reading, however, was in line economists' predictions, and did little to increase?the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. U.S. consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in three years, as the Iran War increased the cost of gasoline and energy products. Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department announced on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index had increased by 4.2% over the 12-month period ending in May. This is the biggest gain since April 20,23. The economists polled had predicted the CPI to increase 4.2% on an annual basis. Karl Schamotta is the chief market strategist for Corpay, a Toronto-based company. He said that the Federal Reserve has not yet been able to use the soaring prices of energy in its core measures. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. dollar against six other currencies) was down 0.1% at 99.875, but still not far off the two-month-high of 100.214 that was reached on Monday. Schamotta stated that traders are preparing for a neutral statement from officials at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, and have modestly reduced expectations of a rate increase by year's end. The traders of short-term U.S. rates have backed away from betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as early as September. However, they remain confident that an increase in rate is coming by October. According to a large majority of economists polled, the Fed will keep its key rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026. Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy and research for wealth management firm Glenmede, stated in a report that "after three months of high energy costs, there has been no meaningful pass-through" to core goods. This is the most important data in the report today that shows the Iran shock has not spread to a generalized episode of inflation. Even so, traders were on edge. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday the United States would attack Iran "very strongly" if a peace deal was not reached. He also revealed that the U.S. Military secretly escorted vessels carrying more than 100,000,000 barrels of crude oil out of Strait of Hormuz to moderate global oil prices. The Yen remains in focus A Bank of Japan rate increase at its policy meeting on June 16 is almost completely?priced-in, which means that it will not trigger a significant turnaround in the yen's weakness even if it occurs. Tony Sycamore said that a hawkish comment from Governor (Kazuo Ueda) would be needed to signal the BOJ's next hike could move from December to September – with the?possibility a third increase before the end of the year," Tony Sycamore wrote in a note. Without that, or something similar the Ministry of Finance will likely have to use its chequebook again to defend the currency. The Japanese yen remained steady at 160.475 against the dollar. It continues to hover near the 160 level, which is widely considered a "line in the sand" for official intervention. According to a poll of economists, the BOJ is likely to raise its key rate in this month's quarter and again next year. This will bring borrowing costs up to 1.25% at the end of the calendar year. DOLLAR SOFTNESS On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at the same level. Governor Tiff MacKlem said that the central banks would not hesitate to increase rates to control inflation. The pound was 0.1% stronger against the dollar Wednesday as investors closely watched the latest escalation of tensions between Iran and the U.S. ahead of the UK GDP data on Friday. The leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, was almost flat on the day. It now stands at $61,949. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Will Dunham, Jan Harvey and Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting and editing by Sophie Kiderlin and Satoshi Sugyama in London; Reporting by Saqib Ahmed Iqbal; Additional reporting and editing by Sophie Kiderlin and Satoshi Sugyama in Tokyo)
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Trump: 'I love inflation' as prices increase amid Iran war
Donald Trump on a Wednesday appeared to be embracing data that showed a rise in inflation of more than 4%. He told reporters that he "loved the inflation" and reiterated his belief prices would fall once the Iran War ended. When asked about U.S. data that showed consumer inflation increased in May at the fastest rate in three years, and if it could hurt his fellow Republicans months before November's midterm elections, Trump replied: "I love inflation." Trump then explained that he approved a plan to secretly move oil tanks through the Strait of Hormuz due to concerns about higher costs and inflation. Trump stated that his calculation was successful and that the operation was a success. Trump stated that the oil will drop back to its previous level when the war is over. It's going down. It will fall like a stone. Trump called the war against Iran a diversion and described it as a "national security issue" because the closing of a key shipping route by Tehran has increased the price of gasoline, fertilizer, and other goods. The Federal Reserve could be prevented from lowering interest rates by higher prices, something Trump has been calling for since he returned to power in the United States last year. Republicans want to keep control of the U.S. House of Representatives, but they are worried that a consumer backlash will hand the reins over to Democrats. The cost of living is a major issue for Americans. Trump won the 2024 presidential elections in part due to his promise to reduce inflation. However, his approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his career, and this includes his handling of cost of living. The efforts to reopen Strait of Hormuz for tanker traffic to move goods has?so-far stalled. Industry executives and analysts have warned that the coming weeks could bring another oil price shock, severe enough to shake broader financial markets. Even if Trump and Tehran strike a deal soon it will take months for supplies to move, with disruptions predicted through 2026. While Americans are more protected from fuel price shocks than many other countries, higher energy prices could affect consumer spending in the long run. Trump said last month that Americans' financial problems were not a consideration as he pushed for a deal while threatening to attack Iran again: "I do not think about Americans financial situation." I don't care about anyone. "I only think of one thing: we cannot allow Iran to have a nuclear bomb." (Reporting and editing by Scott Malone, Chizu Nomiyama and Bo Erickson)
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Gold falls 3% amid inflation and rate hike concerns as the Middle East escalates
Gold prices dropped?more?than 3% on Tuesday as investors focused on U.S. key data to get clues about the direction of monetary policy. By 2:26 pm EDT (1826 GMT), spot gold had fallen 3.5% to $4,111.95 an ounce. This was its lowest price since March 23. U.S. gold futures for August delivered settled 3.6% lower, at $4133.3. Tai Wong, a metals trader independent, said that the markets are desperate for some good news after Friday's strong payrolls and Trump's earlier threat this morning to 'pay the price'? for not negotiating with Iran. Trump said that Iran took too long to reach a?deal and now would "pay the price." Trump said that the U.S. will attack Iran "very hard" if a peace deal cannot be reached. Iran launched drone and missile attacks against U.S. bases located in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain as a retaliation to American strikes around the Strait of Hormuz on Iranian targets. Since the beginning of the war, in late February 2008, the price of gold has been under pressure due to the rising oil prices and fears about inflation. Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates can be detrimental to the metal. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in about a 67% probability of an interest rate increase in the U.S. in December. The U.S. Labor Department reported on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index, excluding energy and food items, gained 0.2% monthly after increasing 0.4% in April. Investors will have more information to assess the Federal Reserve's policy on monetary policies after the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is scheduled for Thursday. Inflation, central bank purchases, and currency debasement are still concerns that continue to drive gold prices, according to Paul?Wong. He is a market analyst at Sprott Asset Management. Silver spot fell by 0.8%, to $64.83, platinum dropped by 2.6%, to $1681.88, while palladium increased 0.7%, to $1230.41. (Reporting and editing by Paul Simao, Leroy Leo, and Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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Gold falls 3% amid inflation and rate hike concerns as the Middle East escalates
Gold prices fell more than 3% Wednesday as investors focused on U.S. key data to get clues about the direction of monetary policy. By 11:40 am EDT (1540 GMT), spot gold had fallen 3.3% to $4,123.89 an ounce. This was its lowest price since March 23. U.S. Gold futures for August deliveries fell 3.3% to $4147.10. Tai Wong, a metals trader and independent, said that the markets are desperate for some good news following Friday's strong payrolls as well as President Donald Trump's warning earlier today morning that Iran would 'pay the price' for not having negotiated a deal. Trump said that Iran took too long to negotiate a peace deal, and now would "have to pay a price." Trump said that Iran had taken too long to negotiate a deal and would now "pay the price." Iran launched drone and missile attacks against U.S. bases located in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain as a retaliation to American strikes around the Strait of Hormuz on Iranian targets. Since the beginning of the war, in late February 2008, the price of gold has been under pressure due to the rising oil prices that fuel inflation fears and higher interest rates. Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates can be detrimental to the metal. According to the FedWatch tool of CME Group, traders are presently?pricing about a 66% probability that U.S. rates will be raised in December. According to the U.S. Labor Department, on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (excluding food and fuel) rose?0.2% monthly after increasing 0.4% in April. Investors will have more information to assess the Federal Reserve's monetary policies after the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index on Thursday. In a recent note, Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management said that inflation, central bank buying, and currency debasement fears continue to "support" gold. Spot silver dropped 1% per ounce to $64.70, platinum fell 2% to 1,692.92, while palladium rose by 1.3% to $1,000.73. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)
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Trump on Iran: We will be very aggressive with them
U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday the United States will?attack?Iran'very hard' if a peace deal cannot be reached. He also said that the United States had been taking oil from Iran. Trump told reporters in the White House that he would be "attacking them very hard" after Iran shot down an Apache helicopter on the Strait of Hormuz. The president has re-iterated the fact that Iran would be attacked on Wednesday. Trump revealed that?the United States is taking oil out of Iran. Trump revealed that the United States has been removing millions of barrels per night of oil from Iran. Trump said that "millions of barrels" of oil had been extracted, which is why the price of a barrel of oil was $85-90 instead of $250. He did not provide any other details. Trump said that the United States was still trying to reach a deal. Trump said that he wanted a "deal that is meaningful and that works" in the Iran negotiations. Trump said that Iran had 'already agreed' to refrain from acquiring a nuclear weapon. However, the agreement has yet to be signed. (Reporting and editing by Bo Erickson, Doina Chiacu, and Michelle Nichols)
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Cepeda, a Colombian leftist, says he will accept the election results but does not rule out protests
Ivan Cepeda, the leftist candidate for president in Colombia, said that he will accept the results of this month's runoff vote - even if it does not favor him. He also called on his supporters to 'protest peacefully' if their rights were not respected. Cepeda is a 63 year old senator who has been an ally to President Gustavo Petro for many years. He will be facing right-wing lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella on June 21, in what should be a difficult runoff. Cepeda, a 63-year-old senator and ally of President Gustavo Petro, will face right-wing lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella in what is expected to be a challenging June 21 runoff. Cepeda has pledged to deepen Petro’s social and economy reforms and pursue talks with armed group, while De La Espriella campaigned for a security crackdown as well as more business friendly policies. De La Espriella defeated Cepeda in the first round by 670,000 votes. Although he didn't get the necessary majority to avoid a second-round, he will likely draw support from other right-wing candidates who are now out of contention. "I am a democrat. Cepeda stated in an interview Tuesday night that he was a democrat, but that did not excuse him from his responsibility to ensure that the results were transparent. Cepeda acknowledged the results of the first round a week after the election, initially citing an error in the electoral list and unusual voting at certain polling stations. De La Espriella claimed this week, without providing any evidence, that he knew of a alleged plan to start violent protests by the left if he won. Cepeda stated that he would only 'call for protests' if the rights of people were violated. Cepeda, who rejects violence, said: "I call upon the people to defend themselves through constitutional and legal methods." Cepeda said that while the exercise is important for institutions to function, it is equally important that citizens are engaged. If Cepeda is elected, he will seek to implement deeper reforms in healthcare, education, and pensions. He also plans to distribute land to farmers to help make Colombia a global agricultural power. He said that he would rather reach an agreement with business leaders in order to reduce tax fraud and provide resources to his government than pursue tax reforms through congress. He said that a fiscal agreement, or tax pact would be better than a reform which could not be popular with all sectors of the economy. Cepeda stated that it would be hard to revive oil exploration under his possible government because Petro's prohibition on new exploration has shifted focus in the economy and the environmental policy must recognize an "intense" crisis. He said that he was open to the possibility of gas exploration and mining. Cepeda stated that the relationship with the United States - Colombia's largest trading partner - whose government had repeatedly clashed with Petro - will be "managed with sovereignty and respect" to "build innovative bilateral?solutions". Cepeda stated that he would seek to promote peace talks with illegal armed groups, in order to bring an end to six decades of conflict, and he would also work to pass legislation to allow criminal groups to receive legal benefits when they disarm. Petro's attempts to demobilize over 20,000 combatants has shown little tangible results, and armed group membership has increased by thousands during his tenure. Reporting by Luis Jaime Acosta, Nelson Bocanegra and Julia Symmes Cobb. Editing by Sanjeev MIglani and Julia Symmes Cobb.
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Abu Dhabi's wealth fund L'IMAD acquires stake in utility TAQA
Abu Dhabi's newest sovereign fund, L'IMAD 'Holding', led by the emirate’s 'crown prince', has increased its share in state-owned 'power and water utility TAQA' by a further '8.09%', TAQA announced on Wednesday. Abu Dhabi Power Corporation (a subsidiary of the fund) has completed the purchase of 9.1 billion TAQA share, bringing the total of its shares in the company to 98.12%. TAQA announced this in a bourse statement. In a separate filing, Two Point 'Zero Group stated that it sold TAQA's entire stake to AD Power in order to continue its "ongoing strategic aims and portfolio optimization." The company did not disclose financial details. According to calculations based upon TAQA's close share price of the same day, the?stake purchased by AD Power would be valued at around 21,56 billion dirhams (5.87 billion dollars). Abu Dhabi is the home of sovereign funds that collectively manage assets worth more than $1.8 trillion. L'IMAD gained a global reputation last year when it was one of the Gulf's backers in Paramount Skydance Corp's bid to buy Warner Bros Discovery. After acquiring control of ADQ, it has become a?major investment player with assets estimated at $300 billion. The?Crown Princess Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi chairs the board.
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UK consults on steel tariff plan following warnings from users
The government is seeking input from the industry regarding a new steel tariff regime. This comes after the users of metals warned that the scheme would be very costly for their businesses. As other countries in the European Union and Britain, they are concerned about the "dumping" high subsidised steel from countries like China. In March, Britain proposed a reduction in its tariff-free allowance for imported steel, and a doubling of the tariff on imports that exceeded this allowance. This new trade measure, which is due to take effect on July 1, was warmly welcomed by British steel producers. The British Chambers of Commerce warned that "real financial and logistical problems" would be faced by steel-consuming industries, including construction, engineering, and manufacturing. A spokesperson for Business and Trade stated that the trade measure aims to "strike the right balance between domestic production and maintaining a reliable supply". The spokesperson said: "We have always stated that we would review the measures after a year to make sure they remain effective. We are doing exactly what we promised." Sky News reported on possible changes to the plans. It said that a greater number steel products could be "exempted" from the restrictions. UK Steel, an industry group, said that it would support specific amendments and didn't believe accepting them would be a reversal. It also added that it itself had proposed changes to assist other sectors in obtaining the steel they needed. The group has worked with manufacturers to identify areas that need to be amended to "ensure the measure offers the protection steelmakers require while causing as little disruption to the wider manufacturing sector", according to Gareth Stace. The UK and the EU are currently in discussions over their respective steel measures. UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant had previously indicated that both sides would be able come to an agreement on mutually beneficial exceptions. Reporting by Alistair Smout and Muvija M, writing by Alistair Smout and editing by William James & Jan Harvey
Unknown trust links India's leading services with Modi's election war chest
Behind the doors of a. little, nondescript workplace in the heart of New Delhi lies the. head office of an electoral trust run by simply two guys that is. the largestknown donor to India's judgment Bharatiya Janata Celebration. ( BJP), according to a review of public records. The Prudent Electoral Trust has raised $272 million because its. development in 2013, funnelling roughly 75% of that to Prime. Minister Narendra Modi's party. The trust's contributions to the BJP. overall 10 times as much as the $20.6 million it issued to the. opposition Congress party, the records reveal.
The previous Congress-led federal government introduced electoral. trusts in 2013 to permit tax-exempt contribution to celebrations. It stated the mechanism would make campaign financing more. transparent by decreasing money contributions, which are more difficult to. trace. However some election specialists say the trusts contribute to opacity. around the financing of political celebrations in India, where this. year's general election-- due to be called within weeks-- is. anticipated to return Modi to power for a rare 3rd term, surveys. predict.
While Prudent does not disclose how contributions made by. private corporate donors are distributed, used public. records from 2018 to 2023 to track flows from some of India's. largest business.
Eight of India's most significant company groups contributed at least. $ 50 million in total between 2019 and 2023 to the trust, which. then issued cheques for corresponding amounts to the BJP,. according to the analysis.
Four companies whose transactions were determined . - steel huge ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel, telco Bharti. Airtel, facilities designer GMR and energy giant. Essar - have actually not given cash to the party straight and do not. appear on its donors' list.
GMR and Bharti Airtel said in reaction to concerns. that Prudent identifies how their contributions are distributed.
Prudent chooses as per their internal standards, which we. are uninformed of, said a GMR representative. He added that the business. does not like to align with any political party.
Bharti Airtel, which developed Prudent before transferring. control to independent auditors Mukul Goyal and Venkatachalam. Ganesh in 2014, stated it has no impact on the choices,. instructions and mode of disbursal of funds.
Spokespeople for the other groups did not react to calls,. text and e-mails.
Goyal and Ganesh did not respond to concerns sent out via email. and post. When asked on a brief call about how Prudent. functioned, Goyal said: That is something we do not discuss.
Sensible - the largest of India's 18 electoral trusts - is. legally required to state how much it has actually gathered from each. donor and the overall quantities disbursed to each celebration.
But it is the just one amongst India's four biggest electoral. trusts to accept contributions from more than one business. group.
Trusts supply one layer of separation in between companies and. parties, stated Milan Vaishnav, a specialist on Indian campaign. finance at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a. Washington-based think-tank.
Political financing in India is extensively seen as dirty, with. most political contributions in India undisclosed, Vaishnav added. BJP said in its latest public disclosure in March 2023 that its. political war chest - funds it had offered consisting of cash. reserves and possessions - was valued at 70.4 billion rupees ($ 850. million). That offers it a colossal financial advantage over. Congress, which had 7.75 billion rupees in funds.
BJP spokespeople did not react to repeated requests for. remark for this story.
The records show that Prudent was also the largest-known. donor to the Congress celebration in the years to March 2023.
LAYER OF SEPARATION
India's Supreme Court stated in a February project finance. ruling that business contributions are purely service. deals made with the intent of securing benefits in. return.
was not able to develop if political parties know. the identities of donors that give through trusts that get. contributions from several groups.
MV Rajeev Gowda, head of research for Congress, told . that electoral trusts are a semi fig-leaf and that he believed. parties understood the donors' identities. Gowda, who doesn't manage. the celebration's financial resources, didn't supply evidence.
BJP's next largest recognized donor is Tata Group's Progressive. Electoral Trust, which has offered the celebration 3.6 billion rupees. collected from the salt-to-airline conglomerate's companies. Progressive is also Congress's next largest donor, having actually offered. it 655 million rupees.
Progressive's by-laws need it to distribute funds. proportionate to the variety of seats held by each party in. parliament. Sensible has no similar limitations and '. analysis of its contributions found no such pattern.
NEAR-INSTANT TRANSFERS
Trusts are enabled to retain an optimum of 300,000 rupees for. annual business expenses. Remaining funds need to be disbursed in. the fiscal year they were received.
In its analysis of contribution reports filed by Prudent to. electoral authorities, identified 18 transactions. in between 2019 and 2022 in which the 8 corporate groups made. big contributions to the trust. Within days, Sensible released. cheques for the very same total up to BJP.
Before the 18 contributions, which are not extensive of all. the contributions made by the groups to Sensible, the trust did not. have enough funds for the payments to BJP.
Business tied to billionaire L.N. Mittal's ArcelorMittal. group were among Prudent's many respected donors.
On July 12, 2021, for example, ArcelorMittal Design and. Engineering Centre Private Limited provided Sensible a cheque for 500. million rupees ($ 6.03 million). The next day, Sensible issued a. cheque to BJP for the very same amount.
ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India also released 200 million. rupees to Prudent on Nov. 1, 2021, and 500 million rupees on. Nov. 16, 2022. The particular amounts were sent to BJP on Nov. 5,. 2021, and Nov. 17, 2022.
A representative for ArcelorMittal did not react to requests. for remark.
Bharti Airtel, meanwhile, issued 250 million rupees to. Sensible on Jan. 13, 2022 and 150 million rupees on March 25,. 2021. The trust sent out cheques to BJP for those amounts on. Jan. 14, 2023 and March 25, 2021.
And 3 companies in the RP-Sanjiv Goenka group - Haldia. Energy India, Phillips Carbon Black and Crescent Power - cut. cheques for 250 million rupees, 200 million rupees and 50. million rupees on March 15, March 16, and March 19, 2021. respectively. On Mar. 17, BJP received a 450-million-rupee. cheque from Prudent; a 50-million-rupee cheque followed on March. 20.
The RPSG group did not respond to ask for comment.
Contributions from Serum Institute and companies in GMR Group,. DLF Ltd and Essar Group moved to BJP instantly after. Sensible received them.
was unable to identify a similar pattern of funds. being sent out to the trust and transferred to Congress right away. afterwards.
However, found comparable patterns involving two. local parties. Megha Engineering and Infrastructure. transferred 750 million rupees to Prudent across 3. transactions on July 5 and July 6, 2022. The trust issued a. 750-million-rupee cheque on July 7 to Bharat Rashtra Samithi, a. centrist celebration in Telangana state, where Megha group is. headquartered.
And residential or commercial property developers Avinash Bhosale Group, based in the. western Maharashtra state, provided 50 million rupees to Prudent on. Nov. 27, 2020. The trust provided a cheque for that total up to the. Maharashtra Pradesh Nationalist Congress Party, which is. independent of the nationwide Congress celebration, on Nov. 30. The corporate groups did not instantly return ask for. remark. BRS's general secretary said he was not aware of. specifics about the contributions, while a senior NCP official said. that the party had just recently divided and every record will not be. available with us.
REASON FOR CONCERN?
Public records and party reports show BJP's war chest has. swelled given that Modi ended up being prime minister in 2014, from 7.8. billion rupees ($ 94.09 million) in March 2014 to 70.4 billion. rupees in March 2023. Congress' funds increased from 5.38. billion rupees to 7.75 billion rupees in the very same time period. The funding gap between the BJP and Congress is a reason for. concern, stated Jagdeep Chhokar of Association of Democratic. Reforms, a Delhi-based civil society group that was the primary. petitioner behind the electoral bonds difficulty in the Supreme. Court.
Level playing field is an important part of democracy, he. stated.
Some BJP authorities have actually said in the past that the large sums. it has raised on its books are an example of its transparency.
BJP has actually been the significant beneficiary of electoral bonds, a. system that permitted donors to offer unrestricted total up to. parties without public disclosure.
It got some 65.66 billion rupees of the 120.1 billion. rupees worth of such bonds sold between their January 2018. introduction and March 2023. Such bonds made up more than half. the contributions gotten by the BJP in all but one fiscal year. given that their introduction.
The Supreme Court called the system unconstitutional in. February and purchased the government-owned State Bank of India,. which issued the bonds, to launch purchasers' information. Specifics. are set for release by March 15.
(source: Reuters)