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Iron ore prices fall as China's demand falters
Iron ore prices fell on Monday as a result of a seasonal decline in demand for the commodity and shrinking steel margins. This was despite hopes that Beijing would announce stimulus measures later this week to boost the economy. The daytime trading price of the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 741 yuan (109.50 dollars) per metric ton. As of 0800 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore price on Singapore Exchange was $97.6 per ton - a 0.56% decrease. After steel demand slowed down and margins shrank sharply, several Chinese steelmakers started equipment maintenance. The average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, has declined for the third consecutive week. It fell by 0.6% over the previous week to 2,38 million tons as of July 23. This was the lowest since April 3. Analysts at Hongyuan Futures wrote in a report that "constantly shrinking margins for steel, combined with production restrictions in some steelmakers' factories in Tangshan" (China's hub of steelmaking) will keep the hot metal output low. Analysts at Everbright Futures said that the market is focused on the end-July Politburo meeting, where policymakers are likely to strengthen the 'countercyclical support for policy and introduce incremental measures in order to stabilize economic growth. Andrew Forrest, the founder of Fortescue, called on China and Australia to always "negotiate fairly"? when the world's largest iron ore producer negotiates its annual supply terms with its biggest client. Coking coal was down by 1.05%, while?coke rose by 0.68%. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar gained 0.16% while hot-rolled coils advanced 0.34%. Wire rods edged down by 0.09%, and stainless steels lost 0.34%.
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Galp's adjusted Q2 profit increases by 45% due to Brazil production and refining margins
Galp Energia, a Portuguese company, announced a 45% increase in its second-quarter 'adjusted' net profit on Monday, exceeding expectations due to higher oil production in Brazil and stronger crude.prices. Galp reported that its adjusted net profit rose to EUR540 (USD616 million) from EUR373 in April-June, surpassing the EUR494 consensus provided by the company. The board of directors said they would propose an increase of 10% in dividends per share for 2026 at the next AGM. Galp said that adjusted earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, rose by 52% year-over-year in the second quarter to EUR1.27billion. EBITDA for crude oil production in Brazil's offshore fields, Galp’s main business, increased 73%, to EUR700m. This was due, according to Galp, to the ramping up of the floating storage, offloading and production vessel at the Bacalhau Field and the higher Brent average prices. Galp's share in oil and gas production from its Brazil projects rose by 12% year-on-year, to 127,000 barrels a day. Brent crude prices have increased from $67.9 to $103.8 per barrel. Refining margins increased to $16.8 a barrel, up from $6.1 per barrel a year earlier.
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Seattle Shooting suspect arrested, local media reports two dead and five injured
Local news reports said that at least 'two' people, including a two-year-old child, were killed in a shooting on Sunday, and that a suspect was taken into custody by the mayor's office of Seattle, U.S.A. On Sunday evening, police urged the public to stay away from the area at the base of the Space Needle as they investigated the shooting. "Multiple shooting victims. The department reported on X that shots were fired "at the Seattle Center". The Seattle Times, citing Seattle Fire Department reports, and the local TV station KOMO reported the death toll and injuries. The Times reported that witnesses told them they heard several shots at around 6 pm local time (0100 GMT). Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson issued a statement in which she described the incident as an "act of horrific violence". She added that a suspect was taken into custody. "Impact families are living the worst moments of their lives and an entire community is trying to understand how a gathering built on culture, connection and joy ended with gunfire."
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As oil prices plummet, Asian shares and bonds are on the rise
As a result of the pause in fighting that occurred in the Gulf, oil prices fell. This lowered inflation risks as well as helped boost bonds before a week packed with central bank meetings and reports on earnings. Iran announced on Sunday that it would cease its attacks as long as the United States followed suit. The U.S. Military was reportedly worried about the dwindling supply of ammunition. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have still continued to attack Saudi oil installations on the Red Sea Coast, a threat to another vital waterway for the global oil trade. Sally Auld is the group chief economist of NAB. She said, "Net, it appears that developments in the Middle East moved in a more positive direction this weekend. This lends some credence to the idea that oil prices above $100 per barrel seem to encourage de-escalation from both sides." Brent crude fell 4.7% to $92.27 per barrel during the lull of fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. Crude dropped 5.0% to $84.99. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates in the near future, but markets have reduced their expectations. Markets indicate that the central bank will meet on Wednesday, and that there is a 1 in 3 chance of an increase in interest rates. However, most analysts do not believe Chair Kevin Warsh to be supportive of such a move. Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that investors see the outcome of the July meetings as "unusual uncertain" because of recent divisions within the Fed, Warsh's position is unclear and some re-escalation of tensions with Iran took place during the blackout. "There is likely to be at least one dissenter in favor of a hike this week, but the majority of voters seem unlikely to push for an action after the June inflation data that was softer." Bank of England meets on Thursday and Bank of Japan, on Friday. Both are expected to remain cautious and hold their ground while keeping an eye on inflation. Earnings from TECH BULLS S&P futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures increased 1.3% as equities found comfort in the decline in oil prices and yields. In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures gained 0.8% while DAX Futures rose 0.9%, and FTSE Futures added 0.2%. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan grew by 0.2% while the South Korean chip-heavy index grew by 0.2%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan increased by 0.5%. Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 0.3% after chipmaker CXMT Corporation surged 500% on its Shanghai debut, having raised $8.6 billion through Asia's largest initial public offering of this year. According to LSEG data, about?one third of S&P500 companies will report earnings this week. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% compared to last year. Even blockbuster results might not be enough to satisfy investors, given the high expectations and the mounting concern over AI capex. A Wall Street Journal article reported that Nvidia had been in talks with OpenAI to provide a $250 billion backstop as part of a project for a data centre. The companies reporting include Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Qualcomm and a number of industrial, defence, and healthcare stocks. The U.S. Q2 GDP is a highlight, with growth increasing to an annualised 1.5% following a soft start of the year. The diary includes the June PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Weekly Jobless Claims, Q2?employment cost index, and July Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The Eurozone's schedule includes the flash Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product), July economic sentiment (consumer confidence), flash inflation (inflation in a flash) and June unemployment. The dollar fell by a wide margin as the 10-year Treasury yields dropped 4 basis points to 4.63%. The?euro rose 0.3% to $1.1408 while the dollar fell 0.2% against the yen, to?163.54. The Singapore dollar grew after the central bank of the country unexpectedly tightened its monetary policy, allowing the currency to appreciate at a faster rate. The Indonesian rupiah fell after the country’s central bank governor announced his resignation. Analysts said that the move could cause investors to be concerned about the independence of the central bank and the fiscal management of the country. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to climb by 1.3%, reaching $4,103 per ounce.
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Fortescue Chair calls for fair negotiation with China
Andrew Forrest, founder of Fortescue, called on China and Australia to "always bargain fairly" at an event in Perth on Monday. The world's 4th-largest producer of iron ore is negotiating a yearly supply agreement with its largest customer. China Mineral Resources Group, the state-owned iron ore buyer in China, has been increasingly resistant to global iron ore miner's annual supply negotiations over the last year. China is seeking better terms for its steelmakers. CMRG has taken measures to prevent China's massive network of?steelmills from purchasing certain iron ore from mines while negotiations are ongoing. "Bilateral Trade has supported Australian businesses, public services and jobs. It also provided China with a reliable and secure supply of iron ore that drove its extraordinary industrial growth." Forrest, Fortescue's Executive Chair, said at the Boao Forum Perth. Australia produces 53 percent of the global iron ore supply. The company expects that iron ore exports will fall to A$108.57 billion ($75.57billion) in 2026-2027 from A$117.57billion last year, as global supply increases. He said that the "shining light of partnership" would encourage Australia, China and Gabon to "grow as a team". Fortescue has built more iron ore operations in Gabon. "Let's always negotiate fairly... True partnerships are built upon a partnership for the future." CMRG notified 'China's domestic Steel Mills' in 'early July' that they would not be able to take Fortescue Super Special Fines products held at ports after July '15.
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Gold prices rise on US-Iran truce; Fed decision is imminent
Gold prices rose on Monday, as investors waited to see what the U.S. Federal Reserve will do about its policy later this week. By 0421 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4.087.79 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.5% to $4089.90. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst of?KCM Trade. The U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.3%, making metals priced in greenbacks more affordable to other currency holders. Iran will halt its attacks if the United States also does so, a senior Iranian government official said on Sunday. After President Donald Trump's advisors informed him that they were running out targets and worried about depleting U.S. weapons, the United States put a halt to its bombing campaign. The oil price was down by more than 4% for the day. Oil prices have risen since the beginning of this conflict, causing inflation fears and central bank rate increases. Gold, despite being traditionally considered as an inflation hedge is becoming less appealing as rising interest rates increase the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold. "Longer-term, I remain constructively bullish about gold." Waterer stated that the fate of gold is directly tied to where oil prices are headed. The path upwards is likely to be volatile and heavily influenced geopolitically until a more durable peace is achieved. Market participants expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on July 28 and 29. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 76% probability of a September?hike. Silver spot rose by 1.7%, to $59.16 an ounce. Platinum rose by 1.5%, to $1.612,04, and palladium climbed 1.6%, to $1.263.73. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Ronojoy Mazumdar and Ashitha Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Markets are hopeful as US and Iran hold off on war.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The Gulf has settled into a fragile truce as the U.S. military halted its attacks in part due to concerns that it was running low on ammunition. Iran also said that it would hold off until the U.S. Hold off. Investors have viewed the Houthis' attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities as a de-escalation step and have pushed Brent down 4%, to $92.80. The $100 mark seems to be where the U.S. blinks. Oil needs to remain close to this level to keep both sides talking. The Nasdaq Futures are up 1%, but Asian stocks are easing?in case this week's flurry of tech earnings stokes concerns about the massive amount of capex being spent on AI. A Wall Street Journal article reported that Nvidia had been in discussions to provide an estimated $250 billion as part of a project for a data center. This week, companies reporting include Microsoft, Meta Platforms (Amazon), Apple, Qualcomm and a number of industrial, defense and healthcare stocks. This week, about a third of S&P500 companies will report their earnings. Earnings are expected to increase by 26.5% compared to last year. However, even this may not satisfy the sky-high expectations. CXMT Corp. shares have surged by 500% since their Shanghai debut, after the company raised 8.6 billion dollars in Asia's largest initial public offering of this year. Oil's retreat helped bond prices rally following a difficult run last week. Fed funds futures, meanwhile, have removed 2 to 3 basis points from the curve. Markets still have a 'one in three chance' that the Federal Reserve will hike this week. Most analysts believe that Chair Kevin Warsh does not want to tighten, but it is possible for there to be one or two dissenters in favor of an immediate increase. Both the Bank of Japan and Bank of England will meet on Thursday. They are both expected to remain cautious and steady, while still assessing inflation risks. Singapore's central banks balance of risk was illustrated on Monday when it surprised the world by tightening its own monetary policy by allowing its currency to appreciate a little faster. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact German Ifo Business Sentiment for July - U.S. durables for June
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The oil price decline and de-escalation in the Middle East have led to a rise in copper prices.
Prices of copper rose on Monday as a result of a tentative?halt to fighting between the U.S.A. and Iran, and relief in the oil market. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange gained 0.26% to $13,681 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.27% to 105,010 Yuan ($15.515.43) per metric ton. After 13 nights of airstrikes, the U.S. announced that it was stopping its attacks on Iran. Tehran also said that it would cease its retaliatory strikes. Oil prices were able to recover a little from the?tentative ceasefire. Brent crude dropped more than 4% on Monday. Last week, it had reached $100 per barrel for the very first time. Energy costs are high, and this can cause people to bet on higher interest rates. This could have a negative impact on commodities like copper that depend on economic growth. Market participants will closely monitor the U.S. Federal Reserve's?meeting on Wednesday for their interest rate decision. According to CME's FedWatch, interest-rate traders have priced in a 63.7% probability that there won't be a rate change during this meeting. Dollar index fell, while gold prices rose. The?dollar is cheaper, making commodities such as copper that are traded in greenbacks more affordable to buyers who use other currencies. The?stocks of copper outside the U.S. are dwindling. The metal was shipped in large quantities ahead of potential tariffs on refined Copper. Copper in SHFE-monitored storages in China's top consumer, China Overall LME copper stocks fell 12.9% to their lowest level since Feb 2024 at 69.610?tons. Overall LME Copper Stocks The lowest level since March. Aluminium slid 0.11% among other LME metals. Zinc climbed 0.31%. Lead dipped by 0.16%. Nickel lost 0.63%. Tin grew 0.78%. Other metals on SHFE also slid 0.15%. Zinc gained 0.32%. Lead lost 1.17%. Nickel lost 0.39%. Tin rose 1.76%. $1 = 6.7681 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar).
Oversupply and weak Chinese demand are causing iron ore prices to fall
Iron ore futures fell on Monday due to persistent concerns over demand in China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore. There was also a supply surplus and a lack significant policy measures that would boost steel consumption.
As of 0250 GMT, the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.9% lower. It was 742 yuan (US$102.66) per metric ton.
As of 0250 GMT, the benchmark May iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 4% at $97 per ton.
According to an official survey conducted on Sunday, the market ignored data showing that China's manufacturing sector expanded for first time in six months in March.
Atilla WIDNEL, Navigate Commodities' managing director, said that despite the strong manufacturing PMI, iron ore futures fell to the downside in the morning due to an increase of 3 million metric tonnes in Australian iron ore exports over the last week.
Widnell stated that the rebounding shipments could now compound, bulging inventories of iron ore at major Chinese port.
The market also ignored data from a survey conducted by a private firm that showed China's manufacturing activities expanded at their fastest rate in 13 months during March. Business confidence reached an 11-month peak, driven primarily by the growth of new orders coming from domestic and international customers.
Coking coal and coke, which are both steelmaking ingredients, also declined by 4.6% and 2.2% respectively.
Steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell due to a soft demand.
Rebar fell by 1.4%. Hot-rolled coils dropped 0.4%. Wire rods declined 1.2%. Stainless steel dropped 1%. ($1 = 7,2274 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala; Reporting by Neha Aroo)
(source: Reuters)