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Abakkus Investment: Global shocks and IPO wave may temper India's earnings driven market revival

Abakkus Investment Managers says that India's Nifty50 companies have shown a robust profit growth, which has improved the outlook for domestic markets. However, global risk aversion, and a healthy IPO pipeline, could dampen a broader rally in the short term.

The 'benchmark Nifty 50' and Sensex have fallen 7.9% and 9.8% respectively year-to date amid inflation driven by crude and a record of $25 billion in outflows from abroad. Comparatively, peers in the region, like South Korea and Taiwan have each gained about 50%. Abakkus manages assets totaling $5.2 billion and sees rising crude prices, global yields, and volatility in the AI market as external risks for Indian equities.

Aman Chowhan told?Wednesday that "domestically, the consumer demand and corporate profits are strong, as shown in the better than expected?Q1 results. But globally, they're not", Aman Chowhan said. Chowhan stated that India would outperform EM and Asian peers'relatively' after a weaker first half. However, the direction of the market will be determined by the global risk sentiment. The AI trade and crude oil prices are likely to set the pace. Chowhan stated that another obstacle is the expansion of equity supply. IPOs and qualified institutional placements are competing for capital. Block deals also compete with IPOs.

Chowhan added that "fresh issues and institution placements are sucking liquidity out of secondary markets, as investors chase listing profits and 'growth stories.

A packed August pipeline indicates sustained primary market supply near-term. After 27 mainboard IPOs, which raised 225.72 bn rupees (2.36 bn dollars) in 'the first half 'of 2026. Chowhan estimates 40-50% of capital could be consumed by these offerings, limiting a wider market rally.

Abakkus, in this context, favors niche NBFCs, as well as mid-sized banks, citing a stronger credit growth.

Foreign investors are also expected to increase their exposure to equity markets only gradually, as they have been cautious about increasing it after years of poor returns in certain sectors such as IT and financials.

(source: Reuters)