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Investors wait for details on US-Iran peace agreement
Investors awaited more details about the U.S. - Iran peace deal. Gold prices were mostly stable on Tuesday. As of 0231 GMT spot gold was up by 0.2% to $4,315.87 an ounce after rising as high as 3.6% on Sunday, when it reached its highest level since the 5th of June. U.S. Gold Futures for August delivery fell 0.3% to $4,337.10. U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Monday that the U.S. had signed a preliminary deal with Iran to end the Gulf War, but no details were made public. Both countries also said they have yet to negotiate a permanent ceasefire. Since late Thursday, the Iran news has fueled a good run in gold. Edward Meir is an analyst with Marex. He said, "I think that this euphoria might last for a few more days and culminate in the signing ceremony on Friday." The U.S. Dollar held near its 10-day lows before the Bank of Japan announced their interest rate decision. Investors will also be watching the Federal Reserve's policy announcement and remarks on Wednesday. This is the first time that Kevin Warsh has been the chair. Rates are expected to stay the same. Markets expect no rate reductions this year. Meir stated that if Warsh indicates at least one rate cut may be on the table this year, then the dollar could decrease even further and we could see another rally in the gold price. Gold could be under pressure if he appears to be more hawkish about rates. CME FedWatch? tool shows that traders have reduced their expectations of a U.S. interest rate increase in December to 57%, from 70% last week. In a high interest rate environment, gold is not attractive as it does not yield. Citi has raised its gold price forecast for the 0-3 months by $500 per ounce to $4,500. Silver fell by 1%, to $69.29 an ounce. Platinum dropped 0.9%, to $1.751.55, while palladium dropped 1.6%, to $1.327.27. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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BOJ to make decision on Iran deal in the near future
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, as investors focused on 'central bank decisions. This included an expected 'rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The markets have taken a more measured approach to Gulf developments, as the initial excitement surrounding the preliminary agreement reached between Washington and Tehran has begun to fade. Brent crude futures rose 0.1% to $83,25 per barrel, reflecting the cautious approach. Shipping companies in Asia and Europe say it could take several weeks to rebuild confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will be open for business again. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan has lost gains and is now trading flat. Stocks in Hong Kong are weighing down the benchmark due to weaker-than-expected data on retail sales from China, as well as fixed-asset investments. Japan's Nikkei was down by 0.3% from its record high, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%. Although the announcement by Donald Trump of a nuclear deal with Iran on Monday brought relief to investors, it also put Washington on a collision course with Israel. Westpac analysts said in a research report that while the deal was a diplomatic success, its durability would be tested over time. Many sticking points were left for future negotiations, such as the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. WALL STREET RALLY Stocks and bonds rose overnight on Wall Street on the optimism surrounding the deal. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq Composite soared 3.1% and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and STOXX 600 closed at new records. Traders are waiting for several major central banks decisions.?Including the Bank of Japan which is expected Tuesday to increase interest rates to their highest level in 31 years. After the meeting, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is scheduled to hold a briefing for the media. Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss this because he's undergoing medical treatments. In a research report, analysts at?Mitsubishi UFJ stated that they did not expect any major changes in the Bank's assessment on?current conditions. The note stated that "We expect the Deputy Governor Uchida to base his press conference and the reasoning he uses for the rate hike decision on the Governor Ueda speech of June 3rd." "Mr. Uchida will also follow the Governor's remarks in discussing future policy decisions." According to a survey of economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to stop its tightening cycle at a later meeting. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the "greenback" against a basket six currencies, has been firmly anchored at 99.69. It is still firmly in the same tight trading channel that it has been in for the last three sessions. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was up by 0.2 basis points to 4.469%. Gold rose 0.1% to $4,311.12 per ounce. Bitcoin was down by 0.3%, at $66,281.99. Ether fell 1.3%, to $1,791.39. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Shri Navaratnam, and Jamie Freed).
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Fire caused by drone debris at an oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar Region near Crimea
Authorities?said Tuesday that a fire was caused by debris from a drone at an oil depot located in southern Krasnodar, Russia. They also?closed the local road linking the area with the Crimean Peninsula. The fire that broke out at the oil depot in the Poltavskaya region?of Krasnodar was not fatal, according to a telegram message from the regional authorities. The authorities said that they had closed a local route connecting the area to a regional road leading to a?bridge over the Kerch Strait? linking Crimea with the Krasnodar Region, which was built by Moscow following the annexation. The bridge is one way to supply the Black Sea Peninsula, along with a few other roads that connect to Russia-held parts of Ukraine. Ukraine struck two bridges on Monday that connect the Russian-held area of Ukraine's Kherson Region?with Crimea. Kyiv's recent intensification of attacks on Crimea supply routes has led to a fuel shortage in the peninsula. In the Krasnodar area, a popular tourist destination in summer, disruptions in?fuel supply have led to panic buying, according to the regional governor. Ukraine is continuing its attacks on Russian energy assets. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue in Tokyo, Lincoln Feast and Jekaterina Gólubkova.)
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BOJ to make decision on Iran deal in the near future
Asian stocks climbed a little on Tuesday, after rallying the previous session due to news of a peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. Investors turned their attention to'several' central bank decisions such as an expected rate increase from the Bank of Japan. Early trading in this region followed a familiar trend, as markets began to take a more measured approach on Gulf developments after the initial excitement surrounding the preliminary agreement reached between Washington and Tehran started to fade. Brent crude futures rose 51 cents or 0.6% to $83.74 per barrel, reflecting the cautious approach. Shipping companies in Asia and Europe say it could take several weeks to rebuild confidence that transit will resume through the Strait of Hormuz. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan gained 0.2% with Korean shares leading the gains. Japan's Nikkei was down by 0.2% from its record high, as the e-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%. Although the announcement by Donald Trump of a nuclear deal with Iran brought relief to investors on Monday, Washington is now on a collision course with Israel. Analysts from Westpac said in a research report that while the deal was a diplomatic success, its durability would be tested over time. Many sticking points were left for future negotiations, such as the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. Stocks and bonds rose overnight on Wall Street on the optimism surrounding the deal. The S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq Composite soared 3.1% and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and STOXX 600 closed at new records. Traders are waiting for several important central bank decisions. This includes the Bank of Japan which will raise interest rates on Tuesday to a record high. After the meeting, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is scheduled to hold a briefing for journalists. Governor Kazuo Ueda has been undergoing medical treatments and will not be able to attend. In a research report, analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ stated that they did not expect any major changes in the Bank's assessment on current conditions. The note stated that "We expect the Deputy Governor Uchida press conference and the reasoning he uses for his rate-hike announcement to be heavily influenced by Governor Ueda’s speech on June 3," "Mr. Uchida will also follow the governor's remarks in discussing future policy decisions." According to a survey of economists, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to stop its tightening cycle at a later meeting. The?U.S. The dollar index, which measures greenback strength against a basket six currencies, has held steady at 99.66. The yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond in the United States was up by 0.8 basis points at 4.475%. Gold rose 0.2% to $4,313.87. Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $66,245.97 while ether dropped 1.2% to $1.793.70. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Concerns about US-Iran Peace Deal, Restored Supply, and Oil Prices are causing a rebound in the price of oil
The oil prices rose on Tuesday due to concerns over the lack of detail in a preliminary agreement that would end the war between Iran and the U.S. Brent crude futures rose?26 cents or 0.3% to $83.42 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 46 cents or 0.3% to $81.12 per barrel as of 0108 GMT. Oil prices dropped by almost 5% on Monday to their lowest level since March 4. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that a memorandum-of-understanding had been signed to end the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. The conflict shut down the Strait-of-Hormuz, which carried about one-fifth the world's supply of oil before the conflict. The full details of the memo have not yet been made public and there hasn't been a truce permanent. Early indications are that the agreement will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed for the past 60 years. It will also extend the ceasefire period by 60 days. This would allow negotiators the opportunity to address difficult issues such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president said that the U.S. and Iran memorandum was "an important step" towards stopping the fighting. However, a final agreement on a lasting ceasefire "has yet take shape." Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that the market will likely show some restraint in regards to the further unwinding the risk premium in energy markets. According to a senior Iranian official, Iran will freeze its nuclear activities until a final deal is reached. This includes refraining from further enriching uranium or expanding nuclear facilities. It is unclear, even with the current agreement how quickly the curtailed supplies will be able return to the market. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst at IG. He said, "The path to normal supply flow remains far from'straightforward. Sycamore said that clearing mines, restoring marine insurance coverage and allowing vessels and operators to feel comfortable returning to the Gulf would all take some time.
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US Air Force B-52 Bomber Crashes in California, 8-member Crew Presumed Dead
The base reported that the U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress Bomber crashed Monday, shortly after takeoff, from Edwards Air Force Base, located in Southern California's Mojave Desert. All eight crew aboard are presumed dead, according to the base. Edwards stated in a press release issued four hours after it crashed that the eight-engine jet aircraft was on a test mission. It had been designed to carry conventional and nuclear bombs. Aerial footage from the crash site, located about 100 miles north of Los Angeles (161 km), showed a large, smoldering area of desert floor, roughly the size of an American football field. An emergency vehicle could be seen driving around the perimeter of the scene. The footage did not show any large debris. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress with eight passengers on a routine testing mission crashed after take-off today at 11:20 am (PDT). The base posted an 'update' on X saying that initial indications were that the crash would not be survivable. The Air Force said that an "emergency response" team was at the scene and that officials were "working hard to account for all personnel." The Air Force stated that the cause of this crash is under investigation. Boeing's Stratofortress is a subsonic, long-range aircraft. According to the U.S. military, it has been the backbone for the strategic bomber force of the U.S. According to an Air Force factsheet, the swept-wing aircraft can carry munitions such as cluster bombs and "gravity bombs" at heights up to 50,000 feet (15.166 meters). The fact sheet stated that the B-52 is capable of performing strategic attacks, close-air-support, air interdictions, offensive counter-air, and maritime operations in a conventional conflict. According to the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives in Geneva, an organization that collects data on global aviation accidents, Monday's crash was the first of its kind since the same type of bomber crashed onto the island of Guam back in May 2016. The seven crew members on board the aircraft all survived. The Air Force only has the H-model B-52 in its inventory. According to the military, it is assigned to both the 5th Bomb Wing in Minot Air Force Base (North Dakota) and the 2nd Bomb Wing in Barksdale Air Force Base (Louisiana), both under the Air Force Global Strike Command. It also reports to be assigned to Barksdale's 307th Bomb Wing of the Reserve Command. Steve Gorman reported from Los Angeles, and Phil Stewart reported from Washington. Additional reporting was provided by Costas Pitas, Jasper Ward and Bill Berkrot; editing by Bill Berkrot & Jamie Freed.
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Industry group warns that the UK's defence and auto supply chains are threatened by the escalating scrap aluminum exports
Manufacturing trade body Make UK warned that the soaring exports of scrap?aluminum could leave Britain without a critical material required for defence, digital technologies, clean energy and the automotive industry. The UK could face a serious crisis if scrap exports continue to increase, as industry moves abroad to find better scrap markets. This puts jobs, investments and supply chain resilience at risk. Make UK stated that domestic industry may need up to 6 million metric tonnes of "available scrap" for recycling in order to meet the 8 million tonne aluminium demand projected by 2035 under the government's "Critical Minerals Strategy" and Modern Industrial Strategy. Daniel Paterson said that the UK Aluminium (Scrap) Collection and Sorting?needs to grow by 25 percent each year. This important opportunity will be lost if UK continues to export critical materials that are essential for our future growth sectors, national security, and resilience. Data from the information provider Trade Data Monitor shows that UK exports of aluminum waste and scrap reached 624,314 tons in 2016, a 43% increase from 2016. In the same time period, UK scrap aluminium shipments to India increased by 94%. The UK's aluminium scrap exports in the United States reached 23,560 tonnes last year, a jump of 989% since 2024. Make UK stated in a press release that "UK exports increased dramatically to the U.S. after Section 232 Tariffs excluded aluminium scrap from their scope." In June of last year, U.S. president Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 50% on aluminum imports. Make UK called on the government to invest in sorting and preprocessing capabilities in the UK, for stronger standards of collection and enforcement and targeted measures that would keep certain alloys of aluminium in Britain. It also called on the government to "engage urgently" with the EU in order to "secure equal treatment" if Brussels introduced aluminium scrap export restrictions. After warning that scrap exports could leave EU metals industries without material for recycling and decarbonisation, the European Commission has begun to develop measures to reduce aluminium scrap leaving Europe.
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U.S. gasoline drops below $4 per gallon for the first time since April
U.S. retail gasoline prices fell below $4 per gallon for a first time since mid-April. This was due to optimism that a preliminary deal between the U.S., Iran, and other countries would lead to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz – a vital passageway for oil supplies around the world. Crude oil prices fell by more than $4 per barrel after U.S. president Donald Trump announced the U.S.-Iran had signed a Memorandum of Understanding to end the near four-month conflict. However, it is still unclear whether this agreement will last. The drop in fuel prices may provide some relief for the Trump administration. They had promised to reduce energy prices. Trump and Republican lawmakers who are fighting to maintain their narrow majority in both chambers of the U.S. Congress during the midterm elections in November have been criticized over the increasing cost of fuel. The $4 per gallon threshold has been viewed by many as a psychological barrier that causes consumers to change their behavior. For example, they may reduce fuel consumption. Trump said that the text of this deal would be made public after the formal signing ceremony, which took place on Friday. He also announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Experts say that it could take several weeks before shipping can resume normality. This is because removing the mines from waterways is a complicated process. Patrick De Haan is the head of GasBuddy's petroleum analysis. He said that the real test will be in the Strait of Hormuz. Any reopening of the Strait and the resumption normal oil flow would signal the durability of this relief. For now, the average national price could continue to fall, as long as there is no drastic reversal, and both the U.S. & Iran continue in the right direction. GasBuddy reports that the average U.S. retail gasoline price fell to $3.997 per gallon Sunday. This is the lowest it has been since mid-April. Prices are still 90.8 cents higher than the same time last year. According to the American Automobile Association, the national average price was $4.065 for Monday. De Haan stated that as of Monday, Americans had collectively spent $46 billion on gasoline since the beginning of the war. Late March, gasoline prices rose above $4 after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for nearly a fifth of global oil flows. For the first time since three years, consumer inflation rose to 4% in May. According to the Labor Department, falling gasoline prices have led to a moderated expectation of inflation among consumers this month. It is not yet clear if the relief will last. Bjarne Shieldrop, SEB's chief commodities analyst said: "This is fragile." It can easily fall apart. Schieldrop stated that there may be certain details in the U.S.Iran Memorandum which are impossible to overcome. U.S. gasoline is in a supply crunch. The 'robust' fuel exports and the resilient domestic demand are threatening to squeeze already thin inventories and drive up gasoline prices. According to government data, in the first week of June, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest level for a decade. They were just 215.1 millions barrels. Tom Kloza is the chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil. He said that if no progress was made in clearing the strait and reinstating insurance for vessels, or in curbing the violence of Iranian proxy forces, then the reprieve could be short-lived. Reporting by Nicole Jao, New York; editing by Sanjeev Mikleni
Indian shares rise on Gulf Peace Deal Tracking Global Rally
Indian shares closed higher Monday as they followed a global rally. Oil prices fell after the U.S. announced that it and Iran had reached a preliminary 'agreement' to end the conflict and resume traffic along the Strait of Hormuz.
Shehbaz Sherif, the Pakistani Prime Minister, who served as a facilitator in these negotiations, announced that two parties will sign a Memorandum of Understanding in Switzerland this Friday.
Investors can now find comfort in the fact that Iran's war is nearing its end, according to Gaurav Bhandari. Chief executive officer of Monarch Networth Capital.
The benchmark Nifty?50 index rose 0.98%, to 23,853.90. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex gained 0.97%, to 76264.33. Both gained about 3% and?3.3% respectively in two sessions.
Gaurav Bhandari believes that Indian equities could have a good four to six months if monsoon risks recede. He expects Nifty 50 benchmark to reach the range of 27,000-28,000 by the end of the year. The index is down 8.7% for the year.
The rupee rose 0.41%, or 94.71 dollars per Indian 10-year bond.
Monarch's Bhandari stated that the $30 billion record of foreign outflows could begin to reverse with the recent RBI measures stabilising the rupee and inflation remaining under control.
Fourteen out of the 16 major sectors rose. The small-caps and the mid-caps, on a broader scale, rose by 1.1% and 1,3% respectively.
Larsen & Toubro, a major infrastructure company with significant exposure to the Middle East in terms of revenue, has gained 3%.
Asian markets rose 2.7% while Brent crude fell 5.2% to $82.8 per barrel, its lowest price since March.
India's lower oil prices, which are the third largest?oil exporter in the world, help to ease the pressure on the rupee, inflation and India's trade deficit.
Oil-sensitive stocks rose, including refiners BPCL and HPCL, cement makers UltraTech Cement and ACC, tyre companies?MRF and CEAT, as well as?airline IndiGo.
Aurobindo Pharma's stock fell by 4.7% after the U.S. Drug regulator raised serious concerns about its facility in Telangana.
(source: Reuters)