Venezuela's Socialist Party is under threat from distrust, desertions and declining bonuses

In the weeks following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. troops, local members of the ruling socialist Party went door to door in Maracaibo's oil-rich city, asking the residents if they supported the party which has ruled the country for almost 20 years. About half of the members responded that they did not.

"The response was very poor," said someone who led the effort. "There is division among us."

Although I was unable to independently verify the results of the canvassing, the reported decline in support was consistent with the information collected from three other areas of the country.

The news agency interviewed 13 party members and local leaders from four states who spoke of fractures within the United Socialist Party. They all expressed a sense of deep uncertainty, and many were concerned about their future economic prospects.

Five sources said that some contributions have stopped since Maduro was captured.

Six people spoke of distrust and suspicion amongst party members, especially towards interim president Delcy Rodriquez. Eight people said that they'd seen a decline in support and participation at their local branch of the party, and two estimated a 70% drop in attendance at local events such as marches and meetings. All the people interviewed requested anonymity out of fear of retaliation. Several said local leaders encouraged party members to spy on those who were losing faith in their cause. This is a common strategy used in Venezuela to eliminate popular discontent. The names of those interviewed have been withheld to protect them.

The news agency was unable to determine the current situation in all 24 states of the country, despite talking with people who observed a decline in participation in four geographically separated states. The majority of foreign media in Venezuela do not employ permanent staff and Venezuelans generally are reluctant to speak freely with reporters for fear of reprisals. The Venezuelan government and PSUV did not respond to requests for comments on the erosion of support for the PSUV party, or the fraying patronage system.

Rodriguez has made repeated calls for Venezuelan unity to face threats. She has also praised the country's resilience and promised economic development for everyone. Rodriguez has met with the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in order to discuss the cooperation against drug trafficking, despite her decrying Maduro’s detention as kidnapping. Rodriguez would have a difficult time if the party's support was eroded at the grassroots. She has been reported to be putting her allies into positions of power in order to protect herself from the threat of Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, who is also the head of the PSUV. Cabello has strong connections with the security services as well as the colectivos (the hardline motorcycle riding enforcement arm of the PSUV).

Cabello was not available for comment. The Communications Ministry in Venezuela is responsible for handling all media requests from government officials. It did not reply to questions about this story.

Cabello has publicly emphasized unity. Cabello used his weekly press conference, as leader of the party, on Jan. 12 to stress that Rodriguez had "all the backing of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela."

According to party members, Maduro’s departure has not done much to improve the PSUV’s popularity.

A local leader of a party in Aragua, a state in northern Venezuela, said that the party would not be able to grow and win elections "even if Che Guevara was running."

"You're dealing with a situation in which the apparatus of repression has fragmented and, on top of it, the grassroots are demobilizing." This is a major challenge to governability," said Ricardo Rios of Caracas based consultancy Poder & Estrategia.

Local support for the party could still revive. Venezuela has already received 500 million dollars from crude sales, and any significant improvement in the economy could help boost funding for the party. Membership perks that have historically been used to strengthen support may also be restored. A senior White House official responded to questions regarding the Socialist Party's problems by saying: "The country has stabilized, illegal migration and drug flows have stopped and the new oil agreement will bring economic prosperity to both the Venezuelan and American public."

MEANS OF CONTROL

The PSUV is the party that Venezuela's top officials have been a part of for a long time. The PSUV was formed in 2007 when the disparate political forces and social groups that brought socialist President Hugo Chavez into power in 1999 were merged. The movement that he founded was called 'Chavismo'.

In 2009, when Chavez invested oil money into social projects the party had over 7 million members. The party was founded to design policy from the ground up, but it became more of a tool for the president to exercise his power and suppress popular discontent, especially after Chavez's death and Maduro's takeover in 2013. The party has a super-majority in the National Assembly, which is led by Rodriguez's younger brother Jorge. They also control all but one out of Venezuela's 24 governorships.

The reasons for the decline in local support were varied. Some people said they were afraid to be associated with the party if the opposition won power for fear of some sort of retribution. Some said that uncertainty caused internal fighting within the party. Nearly everyone spoke of their disillusionment, and questioned whether the new Chavista leadership was loyal to the cause.

Five sources said that local branches have been affected by problems in delivering party handouts - both financial and food - which has added to the hardship of people. Five sources said that members from three states, Zulia Aragua Falcon were leaving the party due to the government's refusal to pay bonuses and distribute welfare. The information it collected about the stalling of handouts could not be independently verified. The government payments that can amount to more than $100 per month for some people, through various benefits, are an important source of income in Venezuela where poverty is rampant and the minimum wage is only $1. Analysts estimate that inflation will reach 400% by 2025.

Some people interviewed said that certain bonuses had yet to arrive, while others did not.

A source in Zulia said that 600 people in their district had not received a "family bonus", which is a direct welfare payout of up to $65, given to help cover living expenses. Three sources reported that CLAP food parcels have not been delivered. Some added that the problems with these deliveries date back to before Maduro's capture, but that they have continued ever since. One party member in the Mara municipality, near the Colombian border, said that there are still old-school Socialist Party supporters who "clap like seals," but they're "turning away because they haven’t received their bonuses."

The person claimed that about 70% of party members in Mara and local public employees ignored the calls to take part in two recent pro Maduro marches. This led bosses in Mara to threaten firings. It was not possible to determine the number of marchers or whether there were firings in response. Four people who were interviewed reported that the motorbike riding 'colectivos,' had attended fewer events. They also said they hadn't been mobilized in order to get people to publicly support the government. According to reports from Human Rights Watch, their members are responsible for the deaths of opposition figures and antigovernment protesters.

A person in Mara told the reporter that many members of colectivos are now motorbike taxi drivers. They have not shown up at marches, despite local authorities threatening to revoke mototaxi permits. "They hide and fake an illness, and some have gone to Colombia." (Editing by Stephen Eisenhammer & Claudia Parsons).

(source: Reuters)