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US refiners downsize crude intake as fuel stocks swell: Kemp

U.S. petroleum refiners have trimmed crude processing rates in action to an increase in fuel stocks and a decrease in refining margins because the start of the 2nd quarter of 2024.

Refiners' gross inputs of crude and incomplete oils slowed to 16.6 million barrels each day (b/d) over the 7 days ending on Aug. 2, according to data from the U.S. Energy Details Administration.

Gross inputs were the slowest for the time of year because the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and before that 2014.

Refiners made use of just 90.5% of their operable capacity, down from 93.6% at the exact same time in 2015 and the most affordable rate because the pandemic's first wave.

Leading refiners Marathon, Valero and Phillips 66 have all revealed reductions in processing rates throughout current incomes calls with investors.

MINI BOOM

Processing rates have actually slowed dramatically considering that the first few months of the year, when refiners accelerated them to the greatest for practically 5 years.

Gross inputs climbed to an average of 19.2 million b/d in May, which was the highest for the time of year given that 2019.

Refiners were responding to a relentless deficiency of gasoline, extract fuel oil and jet fuel stocks and a. increase in gross refining margins.

The diminished in stocks was partially driven by the unintended. shutdown of BP's refinery at Whiting in Indiana in February and. March following a site-wide electrical energy failure.

Chartbook: U.S. refining margins and crude processing

Combined stocks of the big 3 fuels had fallen 18 million. barrels (-4% or -0.76 basic deviations) below the prior. ten-year seasonal average by March.

In reaction, gross refining margins for producing 2. barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel oil from. three barrels of U.S. crude climbed to more than $31.

Gross margins or fracture spreads were in the 75th percentile. for all months considering that 2010, after adjusting for inflation.

RETREAT

Considering that April, however, fuel inventories have been climbing up. and spreads narrowing in action to the increased amount of. refining activity.

By July, combined fuel stocks were simply 7 million barrels. ( -2% or -0.26 standard deviations) listed below the ten-year average.

Stocks have actually continued trending up. Stocks of both. gasoline and extract fuel oil had climbed to the highest for. three years in the first week of August.

Unsurprisingly, gross refining margins have retreated to. around $24 per barrel, precisely in line with the long-term. inflation-adjusted average.

Refiners have actually been forced to dial down processing rates to. forestall any more build-up of inventories and disintegration in. margins.

SOFTER PRICES

The uncommon slowdown in crude consumption considering that the start of. July, a time when it would normally be rising to fulfill peak. summer season driving demand, has actually contributed to the softness in crude. costs and spreads over the very same period.

U.S. unrefined futures costs for deliveries in September have. pulled back from practically $83 per barrel near the start of July to a. low of simply $73 in early August before recovering to simply under. $ 80.

A few of this has been driven by more comprehensive issues about the. outlook for the worldwide economy, which have actually struck several. products and possession classes.

However the unexpected slowdown in refinery crude consumption at a. time of year when it is usually strongest has actually been an. extra headwind for oil costs.

It also underscores the dangers if OPEC+ proceeds with its. formerly announced but provisionary plan to increase crude. production from the start of October.

Related columns:

- U.S. refining margins plunge as fuel stocks climb (June 13,. 2024)

- Financiers desert bullish case for U.S. gasoline( May 15,. 2024)

- Renewable fuels take bite out of U.S. diesel. consumption

(source: Reuters)