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India's monsoon is expected to be below average after two years with above-average rainfall

India will likely'see below-average rains in the monsoon season for the first three years of 2026', said the government on Monday. This is raising concerns about the growth and farm production in Asia’s third largest economy, as it battles the inflation caused by the Iran war.

Monsoons are the lifeblood of India’s nearly $4 trillion economy. They provide almost 70% of all the rain needed to water the farms, replenish aquifers, and fill reservoirs.

M. Ravichandran (secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences) told a press conference that the monsoon is expected to be 92% of its long-period-average this year.

India Meteorological Department defines a normal rainfall range as 96% to 104% of the 50-year average 87 cm (35") for a four-month period.

Currently, weak La Nina conditions are changing to neutral conditions. Mrutyunjay M. Mohapatra is the director-general for India Meteorological Department. He said that after June, it's likely El Nino conditions will develop.

El Nino, a weather phenomena that occurs when ocean temperatures rise in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean above normal levels. This results in hot and dry conditions in Southeast Asia as well as other parts of world.

India has often experienced severe droughts and below-average rainfall in the past, which have destroyed crops.

Mohapatra stated that "positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions (IOD) are likely to develop in the later part of the season and this will help the Monsoon."

IOD is the climate pattern that is marked by differences between sea surface temperatures in the eastern and western Indian Ocean.

Positive IODs, which are defined as warmer than normal waters in the western Indian Ocean often support stronger monsoon rains in India.

IMD's forecast for rainfall at 92% LPA is lowest in nearly 30 years. The IMD will release an updated forecast for the season during the last week in May.

Aditi Nair, Chief Economist at ICRA, said that the impact of the Middle East crisis, as well as the upcoming impact, poses downside risks to India's GDP in the financial year 2026-2027.

India's government has forecast that the economy will grow between 6.8% and 7,2% during the fiscal year which began on April 1.

Nayar stated that lower rainfall forecasts could also have a material impact on the retail inflation trajectory for this fiscal year. Nayar added that average inflation "could very well exceed 4.5 percent." Data released on Monday showed that inflation was 3.4% in the month of March.

India is the largest exporter of onions and rice in the world, and the second biggest producer of sugar.

India is the world's biggest importer of edible oil. It currently meets nearly two-thirds its demand by purchasing?palm, soyoil, and sunflower oils from overseas, primarily in Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil and Russia.

A Mumbai-based dealer at a global trading house said that lower rainfall would likely increase India's imports of edible oil and eliminate the possibility for sugar exports the following season.

(source: Reuters)