Latest News
-
McGeever: Risk of dollar liquidity shock highlighted by Mideast crisis
This week, investors have been rushing to buy dollars amid the turmoil in the Middle East. It is a reminder of the difficult transition from a dollar-centric worldview towards a multi-polar, fractured financial system. Investors are seeking relative safety in the most liquid asset of the world, the dollar. Equity indices, which were the best performers in the first half of the year, are now in a slump: South Korea's KOSPI has fallen by nearly 20% in just two days. The dollar has risen by as much as 2 percent in just two days and Treasury yields have also soared. Matt King, founder at Satori Insights says that this sudden dollar surge has nothing to do with a sudden change in growth or inflation expectations. Money flow is the issue - investors are scrambling for liquidity as they unwind the speculative frenzy that has inflated many markets over recent months. Investors in a foxhole, despite all their fears of dollar devaluation, still need and want dollars. Will Dollar Demise remain 'Glastic'? This raises a wider question about what will happen in future crises, if the erosion of the dollar dominance continues. Since the advent of the Euro in 1999, and China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the dollar has steadily declined as the leader of global trade, finance, and foreign exchange reserves. According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 57% from 70% at the beginning of the 2000s. Because the erosion was smooth and gradual the dollar liquidity continued to rise and the global financial systems built buffers for liquidity squeezes, after the historic shocks in 2008 and 2020. The U.S. alliances and rules-based order that once lubricated the wheels of world markets and the economy with dollar liquidity are now crumbling. In the last year, major trade, political, and military conflicts erupted, making the investment landscape in the world extremely risky. Barry Eichengreen is a professor at the University of California Berkeley and a renowned expert in international capital flows. He will be publishing his book, "Money Beyond Borders": Global Currencies From Croesus To Crypto, on March 17th. Eichengreen examines the 2,500 year history of money and the reasons why certain currencies are important and then disappear. He also assesses the future of the dollar, as well as the role that cryptocurrencies and blockchain will play. He argues that the dollar is still the dominant currency for FX reserves, international trade, finance, and invoicing. However, he worries that the decline of the dollar on these fronts could accelerate. Eichengreen: "I am much more concerned than I used to be in the past." There is no obvious alternative to greenbacks, so we must continue to pray that the transition will be very gradual and seamless. We're now learning, however, that things are not as smooth anymore. "A DELICATE POINT in Time" The last few days were anything but smooth and have shown how desperately the world needs dollars. According to the Bank for International Settlements, 89% of all FX transactions are on one side. This is the highest level in 25 years. The euro is the second most traded currency, accounting for?29% all FX transactions. Additionally, the dollar is responsible for about half of all international payments. According to a Federal Reserve report, if you include intra-eurozone payments in the calculations, this share increases to about 60%. About 55% of bank claims in foreign currencies and international are denominated as dollars, while 60% of liabilities have the same currency. It is estimated that 20% of oil trade in the world now takes place in currencies other than dollars, like the euro or the Chinese yuan. That means that around 80% of the world's crude oil trade is still in dollars. Eichengreen has said that he believes a multi-polar financial and monetary system for the global economy would be beneficial to the world. Just as a diverse ecosystem is healthy for the planet. "But we are not yet at a stage where other sources of liquidity in the global market could replace the dollar. Eichengreen: "We are now at a delicate time." This seems like a bit of an understatement at a time where trade wars, and even real wars, are raging. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
-
Mines ministry reports that a landslide at Congo's Rubaya mining site has killed over 200 people.
The?mines minister of the Democratic?Republic of?Congo said that more than 200?people were killed in a landslide on Tuesday, which was triggered by heavy rainfall at the Rubaya colltan mine?in the eastern Democratic?Republic of?Congo. A senior official of the AFC/M23 rebellion group, which controls mine, said earlier that only 5 or 6 people died in the accident. Rubaya produces about 15% of the world's colltan. This is then processed into tantalum. A heat-resistant metal, it is highly sought after by manufacturers of mobile phones and computers as well as?aerospace parts and gas turbines. The United States government recently included the site on a list of mining assets that the Congolese Government is offering to the United States as part of a framework for minerals cooperation. The damaged site was one where the continued operation of mines had been discouraged until the area is secured and protective measures are implemented for the miners. Another senior AFC/M23 Official told? that the incident was caused by heavy rains in 'the last few days. According to the mines ministry, around 70 children died and many others were injured. They were evacuated to hospitals in the city of Goma. A spokesperson for M23 was not immediately available to comment on the Government's Toll. The 'latest incident' occurred a month after a disaster that killed over 200 people at the site in late January. (Reporting and writing by Clement Bonnerot, Congo newsroom; editing by Aurora Ellis).
-
US diesel reaches $4 per gallon amid rising fuel prices in the Middle East
The average retail price of diesel in the United States surpassed $4 a gallons for the first time in almost two years on Tuesday. Prices are expected to continue to rise 'later this week, as the 'U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran drags on. This could cause sticker shock to consumers on everything from furniture to food. Diesel prices, which are primarily used in manufacturing and for freight, have surged since Iran began to retaliate against U.S.-Israeli strikes by bombing energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a major global trade route. According to AAA, the national average price of diesel increased by 14.7 cents on Tuesday, to $4.04 per gallon. This is the largest?daily rise since March 2022 when Russia's invasion in Ukraine upended the global oil market. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said, "We could see an average increase to $4.25-4.45/gal over the next few days. But any new developments can push the needle in either direction." The highest price for U.S. Diesel Futures was $3.45 on Wednesday. This is the highest price since September 2024. Analysts said that diesel inventories remain tight due to a lack of refining capacity and heavy demand during the harsh winter season in the U.S. Alex Hodes is the director of StoneX's market strategy. He said that the tightness on the market makes diesel fuel more sensitive to conflict in the Middle East. Hodes said that the disruption in Middle East crude oil supplies also affects distillate supply disproportionately because crude oil from this region tends be more distillate rich grades. According to cargo tracking company Vortexa, around 900,000 barrels of diesel per day (bpd), and 350,000 barrels of jet fuel per day (bpd), leave the Gulf. This is equivalent to approximately 10% and 20% of seaborne supplies worldwide, respectively. Consumers will face higher costs In tandem with the Middle East crisis, prices of all fuels have risen. This poses a serious risk to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of November's midterm elections. Voters will be concerned about inflation, as many are struggling to keep pace with rising prices. Energy economist Philip Verleger stated that "the costs of all products would rise if diesel prices increased?transport costs." He added that food prices could rise if farmers are forced to reduce their plantings due to high diesel costs. On Monday, the average retail price of gasoline in the United States reached $3 per gallon for the first since November. The gasoline futures price reached $2.54 on Monday, its highest level since July 2024.
-
As Iran's conflict disrupts the oil market, Americas heavy crude price reaches multi-year highs
The price of heavy crude oil produced in Americas reached multi-year-highs on Wednesday as a result of the U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran, which slowed down the exports similar oil produced elsewhere in the Middle East. Brent crude is at its highest level since January 2025, and benchmark crude oil has surged ever since the first attacks last week. Iran has threatened that it will fire at any vessel passing through the'shipping lanes' of the Strait of Hormuz near its southern coast as a retaliation to the U.S. and Israeli attacks. This has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a fifth or more of the global oil supply and leaving hundreds anchored outside. The Middle East supply has been curtailed and the price of heavy crude oil produced in Venezuela, Canada, and the United States is on the rise. Mars sour oil, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico's flagship crude and the preferred crude by refiners worldwide, was trading at a premium of $5.50 to the U.S. Brokers said that benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), traded at a $5.50 premium to U.S. This was the highest price since April 2020 and represents a $1.75 increase from Tuesday. Rohit Rathod is a senior analyst at ship tracking firm Vortexa. He said that buyers are rushing to purchase these barrels because they expect the Middle East conflict will continue for a longer period of time. Even plants that are not directly affected will see their margins eroded. The refineries in the United States are designed to handle heavier crude and will use it to boost diesel production as a response to higher prices. OIL SUPPLY SQUEEZE Iraq is OPEC's 2nd largest producer and could be forced to reduce production by over?3 million barrels a day in a matter of days if oil tanks cannot reach loading points in Gulf freely, according to Iraqi oil officials. Refiners from India, South Korea and the United States purchase Basrah crude oil produced in Iraq. They would need to replace it with oil of similar quality from other regions. Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude, produced off the U.S. Coast, closed Tuesday at a $5.25 premium, its highest price since 2020 and $1 more than Light Louisiana Sweet. This indicates a higher demand for heavy grades, which usually trade at a lower price than lighter grades. Analysts said that the discount between heavy Canadian oil and WTI, which is one of the largest producers of heavy crude in the world, has decreased by $1.25 per barrel since last Friday. This is because buyers in India, China, and other countries affected by the Middle East's supply shortage, are more likely to look to Canada as a source of heavy crude. The Trans Mountain pipeline that transports heavy crude oil from Alberta's sands up to the British Columbia coast, for export, is not yet full. Patrick O'Rourke, ATB Cormark Capital Markets, said that if the Iran crisis continues we could see a significant take-up of the Trans Mountain spot capacity within weeks or a month. A source confirmed that Venezuelan heavy crude oil was being sold at higher prices. Fuel prices have risen in the U.S. where they are a political hot button. The cost of motor fuel has jumped over $3 per gallon for the very first time since November. This is a serious risk for Trump and the Republicans heading into the midterm elections this November. The diesel price reached a record high of $3.45 per gallon in Wednesday's session. It was the highest since October 20,23. The Middle East is a major source of diesel, so the conflict there is likely to have an impact on the price. Analysts and traders have said that inventories are down sharply following a period of strong demand, resulting from the harsh winter in the U.S. Neil Crosby of Sparta Commodities, an analyst, says that prices for sweet light barrels will start to increase soon because of the shortage. Two traders say that premiums are already rising for certain grades, like Brazilian light crude in?China where the offers were few and the premium over ICE Brent jumped to $13 or $14 per barrel. This is compared to a $2 to $3 premium before the 'conflict. U.S. WTI traded at a discount as high as $8.75 per barrel to Brent on Wednesday, the highest in over three years. This was due to the belief that U.S. supplies would be less affected by global events. Idemitsu Kosan, Japan's second largest refiner, bought 2 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate Crude from SK Energy on Monday for delivery in June.
-
US Interior Secretary meets Rodriguez and mining companies in Venezuela
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Venezuelan acting president Delcy Rod met on Wednesday after arriving in the South American nation earlier that day. The encounter was briefly filmed by a number of media outlets. In Caracas, the Miraflores Presidential palace, two representatives of the United States met with Laura Dogu, U.S. Representative in Venezuela. Burgum had earlier met with executives of foreign mining companies. Two sources confirmed this, while the interim Venezuelan Government is weighing changes to mineral regulations. The U.S. is trying to open Venezuela up to American investment in the oil, gas, and minerals sectors, particularly, after a January raid by the U.S. The raid captured Nicolas Maduro. This is the second time a U.S. Cabinet Secretary has visited since Maduro was ousted. He courted allies like China and Russia. Trump has praised Rodriguez publicly for his cooperation with the U.S. He also hailed Venezuela in his State of the Union Address as "our newest ally and friend". The Trump administration is building a case against Rodriguez, which could include charges of corruption and money laundering, according to a report Tuesday citing four sources familiar with the issue. Burgum is also the head of the U.S. Energy Dominance Council which focuses on increasing?U.S. Burgum, who also heads the U.S.?Energy Dominance Council, which focuses on boosting?U.S. Mining Law Reforms The Venezuelan national assembly, headed by Jorge Rodriguez, Rodriguez's younger brother, is working on a reform to the main mining law of the country, which will include provisions that allow foreign companies the opportunity to exploit rare earths, gold and diamonds. The current mining law in Venezuela dates back to 1999. After two decades of massive nationalizations, the South American country is owed billions of dollars by industrial conglomerates, mining and oil companies, including Crystallex, Gold Reserve, and Rusoro Mining. Burgum, according to sources, is paying attention the proposed mining law and met with mining companies on Wednesday. Sources say that Burgum is scheduled to meet with oil and gas companies on Thursday, to discuss investment and expansion. Last month, U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright made a visit to Venezuela. Venezuela has yet to conduct exploration to confirm the reserves of 'rare earths', a grouping 17 minor metals which are used to produce magnets that convert power into motion. Rare earths is a subset critical minerals that are produced primarily by China. The Venezuelan government's 2018 report on mineral deposits uses key terms from the mining industry, such as reserve and resource, interchangeably. This makes it difficult to determine the actual measurements. A map from 2021 listed the reserves of antimony and copper but not their volumes. Iranian companies have been exploring for mining resources within the country as part of bilateral agreements in recent years, but this has not led to any investments.
-
US diesel hits $4 per gallon mark as Middle East conflict drags on
As the 'U.S. - Israel 'war against Iran dragged along, the average U.S. diesel price surpassed $4 a litre?for nearly a?two year period on Wednesday. The Middle East conflict has paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz - a major global trade route through which 10% of the world's diesel supply passes. According to data from a market tracker, GasBuddy, the national average price for diesel has crossed $4 per gallon for first time since April 24th 2024. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said that the average price could rise to $4.25 - $4.45 per gallon in the coming days. However, any new developments may have an impact on the market. U.S. Diesel Futures reached $3.45 on their highest level on Wednesday. This is the highest since September 2024. According to Alex Hodes, StoneX's director of marketing strategy, diesel inventories are in short supply due to a structural shortage in refining capacity. This makes it more sensitive to the conflict in Middle East. Hodes said that the disruption in Middle East crude oil supplies also affects distillate supplies disproportionately because crude oil from this region tends to have higher distillate grades.
-
Cuban oil embargo causes blackouts across the country
The national electricity union UNE?said that a power outage had struck a majority of Cuba including Havana's capital on Wednesday. This was as the island's socialist-run government 'faces 'increasing' pressure from the Trump Administration. Cuba experienced several major blackouts over the past few years, before the U.S. stopped oil shipments. Cuba's government has blamed its economic crisis on decades of?economic?sanctions imposed by the U.S. The current shortages have been exacerbated by the recent scarcity of oil due to U.S.-imposed pressure from Venezuela and Mexico. The UNE electricity 'union' said that it was working on restoring services and that the 'blackout' affected the entire island, from Camaguey in the central province to Pinar del Rio at the far western end. Cuba's Energy Ministry said that the Felton 1 thermoelectric plant in Holguin Province in eastern Cuba is still?online, and recovery protocols are in place. Venezuela, Cuba's largest oil supplier, hasn't sent any shipments since the end of December. After the capture of its President,?Nicolas?Maduro in an attack by the U.S. on the capital at the beginning of January, the U.S. now controls the country's oil exports. Mexico announced it would stop supplying oil to Cuba after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs on countries that supply Cuba with oil. The government has rationed services due to the power cuts. (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle, Daina Beth Solon and Sandra Gaillard)
-
US approves construction of Gates-backed TerraPower nuclear reactor in Wyoming
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced on Wednesday that it has approved the construction of a small nuclear reactor in Wyoming, backed by Bill Gates. TerraPower's 345 megawatt sodium-cooled Kemmerer reactor was approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, marking the first commercial reactor approval in almost a decade. The reactor is to be constructed near a coal-fired power plant, and will become operational in the early 2030s. TerraPower announced in a press release that it will begin construction within the next few weeks. The NRC stated that the plant includes a system of energy storage to temporarily boost output up to 500 MW. The NRC completed its technical review of the design in less that 18 months. Last year, President Donald Trump issued executive orders to speed up the permitting process by the NRC. He wanted to reduce a multi-year permit process to just 18 months. TerraPower's Natrium nuclear reactor would use a fuel known as high-assay, low-enriched Uranium (HALEU), which is traditionally only produced in Russia. The NRC stated that its staff is expecting to issue the permit shortly. The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded American Centrifuge Operating (a subsidiary of Centrus Energy) and General Matter (backed by tech billionaire, Peter Thiel), $900 million to each of them for the 'development of domestic HALEU. HALEU fuel is uranium enriched to almost 20%, instead of the current 5% level used in reactors. HALEU is only enriched up to 12%, as non-proliferation activists want to avoid militants attempting to make crude nuclear weapons from targeting its supply chain. The Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program of the DOE provides funding up to $2 billion for the Natrium reactor.
Missouri's first judge approves Bayer's Roundup $7.25 billion settlement
The judge of a state court in Missouri gave the initial approval on Wednesday for a $7.25 billion settlement that would resolve thousands lawsuits alleging Bayer Roundup weedkiller causes cancer.
Judge Timothy Boyer of St. Louis has given preliminary approval to a deal between a German?company? and attorneys who are seeking to represent people across the country who claim Roundup exposure is the cause of their non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
The agreement is designed to resolve the majority of the approximately 65,000 claims that are still pending before federal and state courts. Boyer refused to heed the request of other lawyers to delay his decision to allow them to review the agreement.
Boyer said the proposed payout was "significant", but he will hear from those affected before making a final decision at an August hearing.
Plaintiffs claim that Roundup’s active ingredient, glyphosate causes cancer and that they developed non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma or other types of disease after using it at home or in the workplace.
Bayer, who acquired Roundup as part of its $63 Billion purchase of Monsanto agrochemicals in 2018, said that decades of studies had shown Roundup and Glyphosate to be safe and not cause cancer. The proposed deal does not require Bayer's admission of liability or wrongdoing.
A COMPANY MAY BACK OUT
According to court records, the initial approval triggers an agreement provision that requires Bayer to pay $500,000,000 into a fund in 10 days, to cover costs like notifying the class members of the deal. It also opens up a window where class members can object to the deal and opt out.
The company may?backout if too many plaintiffs refuse to?participate. Bayer's Chief Executive Bill Anderson stated on a conference call with investors that Bayer requires "the vast majority" of plaintiffs to be involved.
Bill Dodero is Bayer's senior Vice President and General Counsel. In a press release, he said that the company was "confident" that the well-financed and long-term class settlement plan supported by plaintiffs' lawyers would be approved by the court.
Christopher Seeger, an attorney who helped negotiate the settlement, and is seeking to represent the entire class, stated in a press release that Boyer’s ruling was a significant step forward and came 'as the U.S. Supreme Court weighed a case which could have a major impact on the litigation. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments late in April on a case which could severely limit litigation if the court agrees with Bayer and says that federal law regulates what pesticide manufacturers put on their labels. The company claims that the state court claims that it failed warn about Roundup’s risks were barred because the US Environmental Protection Agency has not found such a risk and does not require such a warning.
Future Claims Covered
The settlement, if approved, would create a program that pays claimants over a period of 21 years. It is meant to settle claims for both those who have already sued as well as those who were exposed before the agreement was made and who are diagnosed with cancer in the future.
Two groups of lawyers representing more than 20 000 Roundup claimants urged Boyer not to grant preliminary approval. They expressed concern about the way the deal would restrict the ability to sue people who had been exposed to Roundup, but had not yet developed cancer.
Boyer stated on Wednesday that if lawyers need more time, they can ask for it during the approval procedure.
Paul Napoli is one of the attorneys who expressed concerns over the deal. In a statement, his firm said that it was "concerned" about how this decision would unnecessarily lengthen the claims process, and delay the justice and fair compensation for the thousands of people who have been injured by Monsanto Roundup.
(source: Reuters)