Latest News

FranceAgriMer reduces non-EU wheat forecast and increases EU demand

FranceAgriMer cut its forecast for 2025/26 for French soft-wheat?exports? outside the EU due to the Argentine harvest, which is expected to increase overseas competition. However, the farm office increased its outlook for intra EU shipments based on feed demand.

Wheat prices have been impacted by high estimates of ongoing harvests in Argentina, Australia and other countries. This is because the expectation for an abundant global supply has increased.

FranceAgriMer's monthly forecast for July-June soft wheat exports to non-EU countries is 7.6 million tons, a decrease from the 7.85 million tons projected last month.

Habasse Diagouraga, a FranceAgriMer grain expert, told reporters that despite the fact that French shipments to Morocco, the main non-EU market, continued in January, they would face increasing competition from Argentinean wheat during the coming months.

After a wet harvest, the reduced forecast is still more than twice as high as a century low of 3.5 millions tons in 2024/25.

The office, on the other hand, increased its forecast for intra-EU soft grain shipments from 7,05 million to 7,39 million tons. Diagouraga said that the demand for French wheat at competitive prices was increasing in Europe due to slower-than-usual maize imports.

FranceAgriMer's projection of soft wheat stock at the end of 2025/26 was reduced to 2,74 million tons, from 2,83 million, due to a sharply upward revised intra-EU export forecast.

The office has increased its forecast for barley exports to 3.4 millions tons from 3.25 million tons projected in November, 45% more than last season's level.

Diagouraga stated that France continues to experience a steady flow for North Africa and Middle East after strong early-season Chinese demand.

FranceAgriMer, a result of the higher export forecast, has reduced its estimate for French barley ending stock to 1,46 million tons from 1,70 million last month.

The office reduced the expected ending stock of maize to 1,86 million, from 1,97 million, due primarily to a lower estimate of supply. Reporting by Gus Trompiz. (Editing by Bernadette B. Baum and Mark Potter.

(source: Reuters)