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French wheat export projection held at most affordable this century, barley cut

Farm workplace FranceAgriMer on Wednesday kept its month-to-month forecast for 2024/25 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union unchanged at the lowest this century, as a lack of need from Algeria and China continued to weigh.

A drying up in sales to the nations, 2 of France's primary overseas markets over the last few years, has actually begun top of a poor French harvest and competition from cheaper Black Sea products.

FranceAgriMer preserved its projection of French soft wheat exports to non-EU locations this season at 3.5 million metric lots, down 66% from 2023/24.

The office stated the volume marked the lowest since at least 1996/97 in its records, after at first suggesting last month it would be the smallest haul given that a minimum of 2000/01.

FranceAgriMer officials informed press reporters there were still no French exports to Algeria in the middle of diplomatic stress between Paris and Algiers, while a lull in Chinese purchasing was continuing.

Amongst minor modifications to the rest of FranceAgriMer's soft wheat outlook, anticipated French soft wheat shipments within the EU were cut to 6.14 million lots from 6.16 million expected in December, now 2.5% below the 2023/24 volume.

Soft wheat stocks at the end of the season were projected at 2.90 million heaps compared to 2.87 million forecast last month, 9.1% listed below last season's level.

For barley, the workplace greatly cut its outlook for French exports outside the EU in 2024/25 to 1.9 million loads from 2.1 million in December, likewise showing a downturn in Chinese demand.

The new projection was down 50% from the 2023/24 level.

Projection barley stocks at the end of the season were raised to 1.61 million tons from 1.38 million previously, now 25% above 2023/24 and a 16-year high, generally due to the minimized projection for non-EU exports.

For maize, anticipated 2024/25 stocks were increased to 2.80 million lots from 2.68 million to stay at a 10-year peak.

The increased forecast, now 40% above the 2023/24 level, factored in numerous adjustments including cuts to intra-EU exports and domestic feed need.

For durum wheat, the workplace reduced greatly its 2024/25 stocks forecast to 106,000 tons from 143,000 heaps, noting that quality problems in the French harvest were leading to some crop being unloaded domestically for feed usage.

(source: Reuters)