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Oil falls nearly 3% following Trump's announcement of new tariffs
Oil prices fell $2 on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump announced tariffs against trading partners. This stoked fears that a trade war could dampen demand for oil. Brent futures dropped $1.97 or 2.63% to $72.98 per barrel at 0033 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell $1.98 or 2.76% to $69.73. Trump hailed April 2 as "Liberation Day," with new duties that may overturn the global trading system. The benchmarks were higher during the previous session, but they turned negative after Trump's Wednesday press conference in which he announced an initial 10% tariff on all imports into the United States as well as higher duties for dozens of its biggest trading partners. We know that it will negatively impact trade, economic growth, and therefore oil demand. We don't yet know the full extent of the impact, as it is a few years away. The White House announced on Wednesday that imports of refined products, oil and gas were exempt from the new tariffs proposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. Trump's tariff policy could cause inflation, slow the economic growth, and intensify trade conflicts, all of which have caused oil prices to drop. Energy Information Administration data released on Wednesday confirmed the bearish mood, showing that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by an unexpectedly large 6.2 millions barrels in the past week. Analysts had expected a drop of 2.1million barrels. (Reporting and editing by SonaliPaul in New York, Nicole Jao)
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QUOTES - Trade and labor associations, analyst on Trump's reciprocal duties
Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he will impose a baseline 10% tariff on all imports into the United States, and higher duties for some of the biggest trading partners. This could lead to a trade conflict and upset the global economy. Countermeasures from trading partners could result in a dramatic increase in prices of everything, including bicycles and wine. Trump has already levied 25% on automobiles and auto parts. SCOTT WHITAKER, CEO, ADVAMED "This type of tariff would be similar to an excise duty." R&D would be the most immediate and direct victim, as it threatens America's leadership in medtech innovation. Tariffs would cost U.S. workers, increase health care costs and hinder future medical progress." RYAN ORABONE MANAGING CONSULTANT BEARINGPOINT "Diversification (of the supply chain of an apparel retailer) and manufacturing is a moot issue because tariffs impact every major geographic facility where we produce clothing." Brands need to be more strategic than ever before and plan everything with precision. "There is no room for errors anymore, including assortment, allocation and pricing." DAVID SWARTZ ANALYST MORNINGSTAR FOLLOWING FITNESS The huge tariffs on imports from Vietnam are clearly a negative for Nike Adidas and other sportswear companies. Due to the difficulty of manufacturing, athletic footwear can't be easily produced in other countries. Tariffs are also being levied on other Asian nations. The industry will not react in a panic. If the tariffs remain in place, sportswear prices will rise and margins could be affected. The chances of significant footwear and apparel manufacturing in the US being a result of any of these initiatives are virtually zero. MARI SHOR SR., EQUITIES ANALYST AT COLUMBIA TREADNEEDLE INVESTIMENTS, WHICH HOARDS NIKE STOCKS "The announcement of the tariffs is much worse than expected." Nike and other footwear companies will find it difficult to avoid a 46% tariff against Vietnam. The companies will try to fight back against vendors but tariffs are likely to drive up inflation in many categories and pressure consumer discretionary spending." CHRIS VITALE, UAW VETERAN WHO RETIRED FROM STELLANTIS, ATTENDED TRUMP'S TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT IN PERSON "You know what's amazing is that an announcement about trade policy could become emotional." "These are the things we've been preaching about for years. We've watched our factories and our capabilities being hollowed-out. To see a President address this and use some words and thoughts I've used, was incredible." LIZ SHULER PRESIDENT AMERICAN FEDERATION of LABOR and CONGRESS INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS The Trump administration's attacks against the rights of union workers at home, the gutting of government agencies that work to discourage outsourcing of American jobs, and efforts to erode crucial investments in U.S. Manufacturing take us backward. RICHARD CAPETTO, SENIOR DIRECTOR, NORTH AMERICAN GOVT. AFFAIRS IPC "A strong U.S. electronic industry requires a holistic approach - one that combines targeted investments and incentives, with policies that promote mutually beneficial trade partnership. Trade is crucial to innovation, cost-competitiveness, and supply chain resilience. Tariffs could increase costs for American companies and drive production overseas. ZOLTAN VAN HEYNINGEN EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, U.S. WOOD COALITION We welcome President Trump's measures and the focus of his administration on Canada's unfair trading practices. We are especially pleased that the President has launched the Section 232 Investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1964 focusing on the imports of softwood lumber. MARK COMPTON EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR THE AMERICAN EXPLORATION & MINING ASSOCATION We are encouraged that the Trump administration is prioritizing the production and processing of domestic minerals so we can have the raw materials our manufacturing base, and society needs. We are looking forward to working together with the administration in order to ensure that the domestic mining industry can meet this challenge. TONY REDONDO, FOUNDER AT COSMOS CURRENCY EXCHANGE Intel is not immune to the cost increases caused by imported chips. Semiconductor giants such as Nvidia are also affected. China's retaliation against rare materials may worsen shortages. PC makers (Dell and HP) may face cost increases of 10%-25%, which could add $200-$500/unit to the unit price, causing margins to be squeezed or prices to rise. The cost of chips and steel may cause delays for AI server companies (Nvidia and Amazon). Construction and retailers like Walmart could also be affected. "Short-term, higher costs and chaos." "Long-term, maybe more U.S. Manufacturing but labor and infrastructure are lagging." Consumers will face higher prices by 2025, unless companies absorb the costs. This is not common. BERNSTEIN ANATOMY "We are concerned that the vehicle and part tariffs will be here to stay, and they will add a significant cost burden to this sector." We see more downside risk for automotive stocks if automotive tariffs do not get reversed, but are instead extended. TOM MADRECKI VICE-PRESIDENT OF SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCY CONSUMER BRANDS AFFILIATION The majority of consumer packaged goods are already manufactured in the United States. There are some critical inputs and ingredients that must be imported because they are scarce in the United States. Tariffs alone will not bring these ingredients back to the U.S. "Reciprocal Tariffs that don't reflect the availability of ingredients and inputs will increase costs, limit access to affordable products for consumers and unintentionally hurt iconic American manufacturers." We urge President Trump and his advisors to refine their approach to exempting key ingredients and inputs, in order to prevent inflation and protect manufacturing jobs. LENNY LARCCA, KPMG U.S. AUTOMOTIVE LEADERS "U.S. Automakers are looking for steps they can take to mitigate tariffs in the short term, such as working on items that can be shipped to the U.S. rapidly without major investment." Massive longer-term investments require more time and clarity." The current playbook of the U.S. automobile industry is insufficient, and it's a momentous time for them. Automakers have an opportunity to change the way they do business. Leverage emerging technologies like AI in all areas of their business. Explore and make alliance decisions faster. "Speed up the vehicle production cycle time." This watershed moment presents an opportunity for mergers and purchases. DAVID McCALL, PRESIDENT UNITED STAINWORKERS INTERNATIONAL We must make sure that our trade policy is aimed at cheaters and not trusted economic allies such as Canada. We should work to build relationships, not barriers, with partners who have shown their commitment to join us in tackling the global overcapacity. The administration must also take measures to prevent companies using tariffs to increase prices on consumers. MIKE HAWES is the CEO of UK's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. The tariffs cannot be absorbed, and the U.S. consumer may pay more for British products, while UK producers could have to reduce production due to a constrained market. SETH GOLDSTEIN MORNINGSTAR ANALYST FOR U.S. SETH GOLDSTEIN, MORNINGSTAR ANALYST ON U.S. "I expect lower volumes due to tariffs." Tariffs are likely to be passed on to the consumer in order to increase prices of products. "I expect that consumers will buy less goods." Due to the high fixed costs of chemical production, lower volume would have a large impact on profits. We could also see another year with declining profits if tariffs are widely implemented. Many chemical producers manufacture their products in the U.S. for domestic sales, so there is less direct impact. DAVID FRENCH EXECUTIVE V.P. OF GOVERNMENT RELATIONS AT THE NATIONAL RAILWAY FEDERATION "More Tariffs = More Anxiety and Uncertainty for American Businesses and Consumers. Tariffs represent a tax that is paid by U.S. importers and passed on to the final consumer. No foreign country or supplier will pay tariffs. "We encourage President Trump, to hold trading partners responsible and restore fairness to American businesses without creating uncertainty or higher prices for American consumers." ART WHEATON DIRECTOR, ILR SCHOOL CORNELL UNIVERSITY, LABOR STUDIES It will take years and billions to bring new manufacturing jobs online. However, expansions in existing factories can happen much faster. Companies prioritize stability. Frequent policy changes can slow down investment decisions, as businesses wait to see clearer long-term signals. MICHAEL ASHLEY SCHULMAN IS A PARTNER AT RUNNINGPOINT CAPITAL ADVISORS AND THE CIO. "Trump may be trying not only to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but also to increase the economic instability of China by putting tariffs on Chinese goods. Tariffs of 34% on Chinese products could force Chinese manufacturers to shut down, leading to increased unemployment and social unrest in China. If these tariffs are imposed, they will have a significant impact on the PC, server, and semiconductor manufacturers. Investors, analysts and politicians will all be watching with bated breathe to see what happens after this 'Liberation Day volley' from the administration. The announcement today is likely to be a worst case scenario. Hopefully, any negotiations will lead to improvements. Reporting by Juby B. Babu from Mexico City; Vallari Srivastava in San Francisco; Abhirup Roy and Caroline Humer at New York City; Nick Brown, Shounak D. Dasgupta, and Alan Barona for the editors.
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BHP considers spinning off its iron ore and coal divisions
Three sources familiar with the matter said that BHP, the world's largest listed miner, considered splitting off its Australian coal and iron ore divisions as part a medium-term strategy for growth. BHP Group considered separating the divisions as part of its plan to focus on commodities such as potash and cobalt, which are expected to grow in the future. Two sources confirmed that the company had considered a listing for Australia before management decided against it. They said that the consideration was in progress as BHP was preparing to bid on Anglo American for 2023 and 2024 and was pushing to green their business. BHP has declined to comment. This would fundamentally reshape BHP and divorce it from the more than 50 years of iron ore mines in Australia where it was founded in 1885. About 60% of BHP's profits are derived from iron ore. By separating coal from iron ore, the majority of its carbon emissions would be reduced. BHP will keep its South Australian assets. This is in line with its strategy of being a leader in the supply of metals needed for the energy transformation. BHP has decided to not move forward with its plans at this time, but the discussions provide an insight into how the miner will re-calibrate its future direction after a change of senior leadership. The former National Australia Bank chair Ross McEwan took over as BHP chairman this week after Ken MacKenzie left. A contest to replace CEO Mike Henry, who is in his fifth year at the top, will soon begin. Henry and David Lamont, BHP's CFO who stepped down in February 2024 from his role, spoke with investors about the plan to separate BHP’s future growth from declining growth businesses by the end of this decade. They decided that it was not the best time, because BHP needed the enormous amounts of cash generated from the two Australian divisions in order to fund capital expenditures at its Escondida Copper Complex in Chile and Jansen Potash Development in Canada. BHP believes that a spin-off from iron ore and coking coal will generate cash and franking credit benefits for Australian tax payers, so there may be a lot of interest on the part of Australians in any flotation. The people also said that a copper and potash unit with more freedom would be able to explore new combinations, like Teck Resources. BHP's refusal to buy Anglo, a copper-focused company that would have helped cash flow and boosted the copper business, complicated the plan. Meanwhile, the desire to go green has diminished as corporations around the world retreat from environmental goals. This suggests that any further progress on this path could be further away. Another person said: "The strategy depends on copper and potassium being self-sustaining business, as both have large capital needs for the next five years." (Reporting and editing by Melanie Burton, Barbara Lewis, Sam Holmes and Veronica Brown)
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Stocks fall as US tariffs hurt tech the most
Investors rushed to gold, bonds and the yen as stocks plunged on Thursday after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a wall of tariffs that was larger than expected around the largest economy in the world, disrupting trade and supply chain. China's and Taiwan's manufacturing hubs were hit with new tariffs of more than 30%. This brought the new total to a staggering 54% for imports from China. Ben Wiltshire, Citi's global rate trading strategist and expert on rates, said that the U.S. tariff rate for all imports is at its highest level in more than a century. Nasdaq Futures fell 4%, and Magnificent 7 technology leaders lost $760 billion in market value after-hours. Apple shares were down by nearly 7%, as the company produces iPhones in China. S&P futures dropped 3.3%. FTSE futures declined 1.8%. European futures were down nearly 2%. Gold reached a record-high above $3,160 per ounce. Oil, which is a proxy of global growth, fell more than 3%, with benchmark Brent futures now at $72.56 per barrel. Early trade in Tokyo saw the Nikkei down 3.9%, at its lowest level for eight months. Nearly every index member fell as banks, shippers, insurers, and exporters were all hit hard. Investors braced themselves for a slower U.S. economy, and interest rate futures price in an increased chance of rate cuts in the coming months. The tariffs were so large and comprehensive that we did not expect them, said Jeanette Gerratty. She is the chief economist of wealth advisory Robertson Stephens, located in Menlo Park, California, the heartland for U.S. technology. People were discussing whether clarity could boost the market earlier. Now that you've got clarity, no one is happy with what they see. RISK TO GLOBAL TRADE Trump announced a 10% import tariff as a starting point, with much higher levies for some trading partners in Asia. In addition to China's 34% tariff, Japan received a 24% tax, Vietnam 46%, and South Korea, 25%. The European Union received a 20% tax. South Korea's Kospi dropped 2%. Van Eck's Vietnam ETF dropped more than 8% after-hours. Australian shares fell 2%. The markets in Taiwan were closed on a holiday. China's Yuan hit a low of two months in offshore trading, just before the opening onshore. The 10-year Japanese government bonds futures saw their biggest jump in 8 months. Zhiwei Zhang is the chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, Hong Kong. He said that "the tariffs announced today pose a significant risk to global commerce." The pressure on East Asian supply chains is particularly high. The U.S. Dollar was higher in rollercoaster forex trade against Asian currencies, except for the safe-haven Japanese yen that rose to 148 yen/dollar. Trump has also closed a loophole that was used to ship low value packages from China. This is likely to hurt China’s giant online retailers. Trading partners will likely respond with their own countermeasures that could result in dramatically higher prices. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that the tariff rates announced this morning were far above expectations. If they are not negotiated down quickly, then expectations of a U.S. recession will increase dramatically.
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What is Trump's new reciprocal tariff regime?
U.S. president Donald Trump has shattered a global trading system that dates back more than 75 years with a new 10% U.S. baseline tariff on all goods and higher reciprocal rates of tariffs for countries that, according to his administration, have high barriers against U.S. imported goods. Here are some of the key features of Trump's new tariff regime, as detailed by his executive order. High Tariffs on Major Trade Partners The reciprocal rate is meant to capture policies like currency manipulation, lax laws on pollution and labor, and burdensome regulations which keep U.S. goods out of foreign market. The European Union is hit with a tariff of 20% by the United States. This will increase to 45% in Vietnam, 24% in Japan, 25% in South Korea, and 26% in India. China, with a $295 billion trade surplus in 2024, will receive a reciprocal tariff of 34%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that this rate would increase to 54% if combined with Trump's February 20% duties imposed due to the U.S. overdose crisis. Trump promised to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods as part of his election campaign in 2024. Britain, Brazil, and Singapore, who had trade deficits last year with the U.S., were still given the 10% baseline rate. White House officials claimed that many countries would have higher deficits with the U.S., if they had fairer policies. The U.S. Office of the Trade Representative reported that Russia would not be on Trump's list despite a $2.5 Billion goods trade surplus in 2024 with the U.S. REPRIEVE MEXICO AND CANADA The tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico have not been reciprocated because Trump has maintained his 25% fentanyl duty, as well as 10% for Canadian potash and energy. The tariff exemption will be in effect for all goods that comply with the U.S., Mexico and Canada Agreement on Trade. This is a welcome relief to U.S. automobile manufacturers. Trump previously stated that the USMCA exclusion granted a month earlier would expire on Tuesday. Officials said that the fentanyl tariffs would remain in place until conditions regarding drug trafficking and migration at borders improve. If they are removed, a 12% import duty will replace them for products not complying with USMCA origin rules. METALS, AUTOS TARIFFS A DIFFERENT THING Certain tariffs will not stack on top the reciprocal duty. Imports subject to a separate 25% tariff under Section 232 of Trade Act of 1962, such as autos, auto parts, and steel and aluminum, will be excluded. This exemption also applies to other sectors that are subject to Section 232 investigations or could be investigated in the future, such as copper, lumber and semiconductors. In a future annex, other products will be listed as exempt, such as certain minerals, energy, and energy products. IMPLEMENTATION AND AUTHORITY The baseline 10% tariff will go into effect on April 5 at 12:01 am EDT (0401 GMT), while the higher reciprocal tariffs will be in effect the following day, at the same time. Trump has invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the 1977 law he used in February to justify his tariffs against Chinese, Mexican and Canadian products over fentanyl. IEEPA was not used for tariffs prior to Trump's current administration, but only to impose economic sanctions. Trump declared a state of national emergency in accordance with IEEPA due to the "large, persistent and growing" U.S. goods trade deficit which grew more than 40% by 2024, reaching $1.2 trillion. The executive order stated that "This trade imbalance reflects asymmetries of trade relationships which have contributed to atrophying domestic production capacity in the United States, particularly that of its manufacturing and defense-industrial bases." CHINA'S EXEMPTION FOR SMALL PACKAGES IS ENDED Trump signed a separate executive order ending the duty-free exemption "de minimis", which was granted to packages coming from China or Hong Kong that were valued under $800. This loophole had been exploited for years by Chinese ecommerce giants, including Shein Holdings and PDD Holdings Temu, to avoid tariffs in the U.S. by shipping directly to consumers. Trump's administration attempted to close the de minimis exception earlier this year. It blamed it for allowing unscreened fentanyl-precursor chemicals to enter the U.S., an assertion that was verified by a last year investigation. The administration decided to delay the exemption in order for the Commerce Department and Customs and Border Protection to implement adequate measures. The decision to close the loophole was first reported earlier Wednesday. Reporting by David Lawder, Editing by Lincoln Feast.
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Instant View-Hefty Trump Tariffs Surprise Markets, Stocks Slide
U.S. president Donald Trump escalated the trade war by announcing on Wednesday that he would impose tariffs in return for duties imposed by other countries on U.S. products. Trump told an audience in the White House Rose Garden that "it's our declaration" of independence. "We will set a minimum base tariff of 10%." China's rate would be 34% while Japan and the European Union would pay 20% and 24% respectively. S&P futures fell 3%, indicating that investors are expecting a big loss when Wall Street opens Thursday. Treasury yields and other stock markets fell as well, while the Chinese yuan hit a new low. COMMENTS: NIGEL GREEN is the CEO of DEVERE GROUP in Dubai, UAE "This is what you do when you claim to be supercharging the global economic engine, but sabotage it. The global trade is experiencing a historic day. Tariffs are simply taxes and the American consumer will be hit hard. Businesses freeze plans, stop hiring and invest when they don't know how the trade will be next quarter. This ripple effect reaches consumers. The recession begins with this chilling effect. "The dollar is no longer the dominant currency. The credibility of the United States is at stake. Investors are nervous about the dollar, which is the world's reserve currency. "Trust is earned and lost easily." SCOTT WREN SENIOR GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST WELLS FARGGO INVESTMENT INSITUTE, ST. LOUIS MISSOURI "There aren't many surprises in this case. I'm a bit surprised that the amount is a bit less than we had anticipated. We've always wanted to invest in the U.S. compared to other countries, and that won't change. We are overweighting midcaps and we like large caps. Our outlook on this pullback is positive, but not overly so. We're trying to get some exposure here. We are not trying to conceal. We don't wish to be defensive. We want to use stock price pullbacks as an opportunity to buy stocks to play what we perceive as a better second-half." OLGA YANGOL MANAGING DIRECTOR HEAD OF EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH & STRATEGY AMERICAS CREDIT AGRICOLE CIB - AMERICAS NEW YORK "I don't believe that the baseline tariff number should surprise the market. We must cycle through each country and their impact. It seems, on the surface at least, that Brazil has a fairly good deal. With Mexico, it's not entirely clear. What will matter most is whether or not those USMCA exemptions are actually extended. We are underweighting MXN. Our overall directional outlook on the dollar against (emerging market) is neutral or slightly defensive. OLGA BITEL - GLOBAL STRATEGIST - WILLIAM BLAIR & CO., CHICAGO "Now, the question is: Is U.S. exceptionalism about to change? If so, to where will this leadership migrate?" Many countries have the capability and will to respond. "I don’t think that we are in for a time of clarity or stability, but rather I see this opening salvo, and I expect a lot of back-and-forth." The question is whether the U.S. can implement these tariffs given the different rates for different products coming from different countries. ERIC M. CLARK CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER ALPHA BRANDS PORTFOLIO MANAGER SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA These tariffs will certainly push consumers in China or other countries to buy more of their products, whether they are Chinese-made or not. It is a dangerous game, because consumers who are forced to switch products will usually get used to them and never look back. "We are pushing nationalism further in these local market. Trump has chosen to be isolationist because of the tone in which he talks about other leaders and countries, and the nationalism he will bring. The S&P 500 companies generate more than 40% their revenues outside of the U.S. This increases the risk of a recession in the United States. "I expect this chaos to be created to create panic. The uncertainty will drive yields lower at a time when demand is high for our debt, which allows us to refinance $4 trillion to 5 trillion dollars at better rates. Over the next few months, the tariff agreements start to be retracted and the stock market begins to rise. JEANETTE GERRATTY CHIEF ECONOMIST, ROBERTSON STEPHENS MENLO PARK CA. "The tariffs were so extensive and larger than expected." Earlier, people were discussing whether clarity could boost the market. Now that you've got clarity, no one is happy with what they see. "It's not speculation that this will cause the economy to slow down and prices to rise. It will actually happen." MICHAEL MULLANEY IS DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL MARKET RESEARCH AT BOSTON PARTNERS IN BOSTON We have clarity now. When you dig deeper into the numbers you will find that the clarity isn't as good as the 10% baseline might have you believe. It means that the S&P 500's earnings per share are likely to continue declining for 2025, and possibly spilling into 2026. SARAH KETTERER, CEO, CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LOS ANGELES This is just a salvo. It's not the final list. There will be several rounds of negotiation. "Market weakness should allow you to invest in global equity markets. European spending is going to be huge and pivotal. It will also be very stimulating, especially if combined with increased bank lending. It's certainly not "Happy Days", but global equity markets, and especially European stocks that have trailed U.S. stock prices for 17 years, will be able to perform better. We believe that some of the gap will be closed." BYRON ANDERSON HEAD OF FIXED RESULTS, LAFFER-TENGLER INVESTMENTS SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA "Reciprocal Tariffs will ultimately deflationary, as our trading partners will begin to eliminate tariffs. If we do get some moderation, the market is not in a good position. We should also see the unwinding of the flight of safety. This means that treasury rates are rising and high yield credit spreads will be easing. Expect volatility as certain countries continue to defend their status quo." JOHN HARDY CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST SAXO BANK COPENHAGEN It makes sense to watch the market's reaction. The Japanese yen will be a safe haven, as well as repatriation into Japan and falling U.S. interest rates. Treasuries, particularly at the low end of the yield-curve, can be considered a safe haven. I believe that these two trades would be the most important. Even longer-term Treasuries may do well. "If Republicans continue to hammer on about tax reductions, I wonder whether (longer-term Treasuries are a good investment). For now, the direction seems clear. "Gold, especially short-dated U.S. Treasury bonds, is the best option for storing things. There's also a wildcard for long-term investments." JASON BRITTON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, REFLECTION ASSET MANAGEMENT, CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA "I consider this a net positive. These tariff levels are a good starting point for future negotiations. Mexico and Canada remain exempted from any further tariffs. I believe the market will calm down and start to analyze the details, and realize that it is at best a mixed bag." "I am looking at the large technology companies who are sitting on huge piles of money. I am a buyer of weakness if they are going to be squeezed by this retreat. "It's the market that's overreacting and I'm happy to take full advantage." PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK "The tariffs seem a bit high." Even though Powell said that tariffs will only cause temporary inflation, the Federal Reserve is now faced with a difficult decision. The effects of inflation could worsen and we could head towards recession. The markets are in a condition of oversold conditions. I believe the markets will rally. (Compiled by Global Finance & Markets Breaking News; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
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Stocks fall as tariffs hurt tech stocks
Stocks plunged, bonds surged and the dollar rose on Thursday, as U.S. president Donald Trump announced an even larger-than-expected wall around the largest economy in the world, disrupting trade and supply chain. Nasdaq Futures fell 4%. Tech was on the frontline because China, which has been hit with an additional 34% tariff on top of its previous 20%, is a major manufacturing hub. Apple shares fell nearly 7% after-hours. S&P futures declined 3.3%, while Nikkei Futures fell more than 4%. Australian shares fell 2%. The U.S. Dollar was higher on a rollercoaster of currency trading, except for the safe-haven Japanese yen that surged up to 148.15 dollars per yen. Fears of an economic slowdown in the United States pushed gold to record highs. U.S. Treasury Futures also soared. Oil, which is used as a proxy to measure global growth, dropped more than 2%, leaving U.S. crude oil futures at $69.73 per barrel. Trump announced an import tariff of 10%, with much higher rates for some trading partners in Asia. In addition to China's 34% tax on imports, Japan received a 24% duty, Vietnam 46%, and South Korea, 25%. The European Union received a 20% tax. Van Eck's Vietnam ETF dropped more than 8% after-hours. Trump has also closed a loophole that was used to ship low value packages from China. This is likely to hurt China’s giant online retailers. Trading partners will likely respond with their own countermeasures that could result in dramatically higher prices. Analysts at Wedbush said that the tariffs were worse than what the Street had feared. The technology supply chains in Taiwan and China have been hit hard. Investors priced in a slower U.S. economy and an increased chance of rate reductions. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that the tariff rates announced this morning were far above expectations. If they are not negotiated down quickly, then expectations of a U.S. recession will increase dramatically.
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Canada and Mexico are not subject to the new global rates because the fentanyl tax is still in place
Mexico and Canada were spared new tariffs Wednesday, as President Donald Trump excluded the top US trading partners from his 10% global tariff baseline. Previous duties are still in place. Tariffs will not be applied to most goods from Mexico and Canada which comply with the USMCA agreement between the three nations, except for steel and aluminium and auto exports. Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada because they did not do enough to stop migration and the trafficking of fentanyl. However, he later announced a concession for USMCA-compliant goods. The White House fact sheet stated that "for Canada and Mexico, existing fentanyl/migration orders remain in place and are not affected by this order." "In the event that the existing fentanyl/migration... orders are cancelled, USMCA-compliant goods will continue to receive preferential treatments, while non USMCA-compliant goods will be subject to an 12% reciprocal duty." Analysts said that Canada and Mexico seemed to have avoided the worst case scenario. Michael Camunez is the chief executive officer of Monarch Global Strategies. The firm advises companies doing business in Mexico. "The North American Partners were shielded from a potentially very bad day." Candace Laing is the president and CEO of Canadian Chamber of Commerce. She said: "We hope today's position of the U.S. regarding Canada will be part of real negotiations, leading ultimately to a long-term relationship." Mark Carney, Canada's prime minister, said that he would still respond to Trump's declaration with countermeasures. He said: "We will fight these tariffs by countermeasures. We will protect our workers. And we'll build the strongest G7 economy."
UNIQUE REPORT-' Sustainable' logging operations are clear-cutting Canada's climate-fighting forests
With its vast areas of forest, Canada has the most licensed sustainable timber operations of any nation, according to the not-for-profit companies that attest to the ecological stability of logging practices.
Such forestry-standards groups were born in the 1990s out of rage over tropical jungle damage. Today, they put their leafy seals of approval on toilet paper, two-by-fours and other wood and paper items to ensure eco-conscious customers and investors they were properly produced.
Yet research shows Canadian forests have actually seen a few of the world's biggest decreases in environmentally critical main and old-growth forests over the last 20 years, even as sustainability-certification programs grew to include almost all of Canada's logging.
To track damage of older forests in these accredited zones, Reuters evaluated forestry data in Ontario, a major logging province. The analysis found that about 30% of the licensed boreal forests harvested from 2016 to 2020 were at least 100 years of ages. That resulted in the loss of 377 square miles of these older forests, an area the size of New york city City and Washington D.C. integrated, the analysis found.
Canada's forests-- accounting for 9% of the world's total--. are considered important to including international warming. Ecological advocates have actually long pressed to end visiting. main or old-growth forests, which soak up far more. climate-damaging carbon than logged-and-replanted locations. Main. forests are those that reveal no sign of previous harvesting. They. can consist of old-growth areas-- some with trees hundreds or. thousands of years old-- however also fairly newer forests. that, for example, might have regrown after wildfires.
Forest-certification nonprofits have chosen to enable logging. of older forests through a host of concessions to industry. The. harvesting of such areas in Ontario came in spite of the reality that. 94% of the province's managed forests are certified by one of. the 2 dominant environmental-certification organizations in. Canada, the analysis found. Reuters analyzed satellite-derived. logging information, government forest-age quotes and. forest-certification maps to approximate the harvest of forests at. least 100 years of ages in Ontario's licensed zones.
Why the heck are they enabling logging-- licensed logging. -- in main forests that are over 100 years old? asked. Dominick DellaSala, a conservation biologist with ecological. group Wild Heritage who studies Canadian logging impacts. For. Canada to claim that it's doing sustainable management, it's. absurd. To put a certification seal of approval on it is more. disconcerting.
The quick loss of older Canadian forests highlights the. flaws of certification programs that have actually come under heavy. influence of the logging and forest-products industries, a. Reuters examination has discovered. The damage has come under the. watch of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), the world's very first. such certification organization, founded in 1993 with. ecologist support; and the Sustainable Forestry. Effort (SFI), a competing established by a timber and. forest-products trade group the list below year.
This account is based upon the Reuters analysis of Ontario. forests, a review of numerous pages of FSC and SFI audits,. in addition to policy and method files, and interviews with 20. present or former FSC staff members or members and more than a. half-dozen researchers who study the environmental impacts of. Canadian logging.
In a declaration, FSC stated it has not fluctuated from its. original dedication to responsible forest management which. its certification requirements are robust and trustworthy. SFI said. its requirements are strong and constantly improving and that. its certification has actually ended up being a extremely relied on solution to the. growing demand for products from sustainably managed forests.
Neither company commented on the Reuters analysis or on. whether they thought about gathering large areas of century-old. forests to be sustainable.
The FSC and SFI accredit logging business' practices in. particular forests and examine consumer-product supply chains. Their seals of approval-- a leaf insignia for SFI, and a tree. with a checkmark for the FSC-- have actually ended up being essential to wood. and forest-products companies amidst rising pressure for ecological. stewardship.
But these business hold immense take advantage of over the big. forest-certification nonprofits, which depend heavily on the. market for funding through certification charges, Reuters found. And because its creation, the FSC has watered down its forestry. standards in action to the competitive threat posed by SFI and. other industry-friendly certifiers, according to. ecologists and more than a lots existing and previous FSC. staffers and members, who recommend the company on policy and. strategy.
Companies are totally free to choose which certifier to utilize,. permitting them to prevent those with stricter standards and providing. them influence to lobby all certifiers for permissive policies, stated. the FSC staffers and members.
Extensive accreditation of British Columbia lumber. operations over the previous two decades hasn't stopped the. disappearance of more than half of the province's old-growth. woodlands over that duration. Logging caused the large majority of. the decreases in the most significant old-growth trees storing one of the most. carbon, according to one 2021 study in the Canadian Journal of. Forest Research and another last year in the journal Frontiers. in Forests and Global Modification. Studies in 2009 and 2017 analyzed. areas of Quebec forests and discovered areas of forests. controlled by trees more than a century old had diminished to. in between 13% and 28% of the forest amid heavy logging. Without. logging, these older areas would account for in between 40% and. 68% of these forests, the scientists estimated.
Herb Hammond, an experienced forest ecologist, ran a British. Columbia not-for-profit company that carried out a few of Canada's. initially FSC audits in the late 1990s. He later on left the. organization, annoyed with what he described as too many. compromises with industry.
It's easy to pull the wool over people's eyes about what is. great forestry, he stated. Certification has ended up being a. little a pet's breakfast. It does not really suggest anything.
A 'CHESS RELOCATION'
Forestry certification has become common in the global. forest-products trade, assisting business such as Procter && . Gamble, Starbucks and Penguin Random Home appeal to. eco-conscious consumers and investors. Those three companies. decreased to comment.
The certifying trend began in the 1990s when environmental. organizations including Greenpeace, Buddies of the Earth and the. World Wildlife Fund helped release the FSC after stopping working to. safe forest-conservation promises from federal governments worldwide. They wished to incentivize business instead with a market-driven. system that branded items as sustainable, stimulating demand. from critical buyers. The FSC was established in 1993 with a. membership of organization, environmental and community. agents.
Still, lots of companies were wary of aligning with. environmentalists. The following year, the American Forest &&. Paper Association, a trade-group, started the SFI as an. industry-friendly alternative. The trade association said its. discussions about sustainable forestry began previously, in 1990,. and consisted of input from academics and preservation groups.
Competitors from the industry-backed SFI required the FSC to. reckon with how to preserve rigorous forestry standards while. hiring companies to certify, 10 present and former FSC. members stated. A 2002 FSC management report highlighted the need. to quickly increase the supply of qualified wood or run the risk of. losing out to an ever-increasing number of completing. accreditation schemes.
The FSC introduced an internal push to improve its market share. that led to compromises with market and weaker harvesting. limitations, according to FSC documents and the FSC members.
Compromising FSC requirements didn't stop the SFI's development,. nevertheless. The FSC accredited about 46 million hectares of Canadian. forests at the end of 2023, less than half the SFI's 119 million. hectares, according to the Forest Products Association of. Canada, a market group. Worldwide, the FSC accredits 160. million hectares compared to 295 million hectares by the. Programme for the Recommendation of Forest Accreditation (PEFC). The PEFC is a global company that oversees the SFI, which. covers The United States and Canada, and affiliated certifiers in other. areas.
Both the FSC and the SFI largely make it through on industry-paid. charges. FSC International reported in 2022 that such fees. accounted for 86% of its $58 million in annual earnings. The SFI. derived 77% of its $12 million in profits from such fees,. according to its 2022 tax return.
Some ecological groups and supporters, while acknowledging. the FSC's drawbacks, continue to view the organization as the. best option amongst imperfect alternatives. Jen Skene, a policy. director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said FSC. certification represents a minimum standard.
FSC is the most reputable certification system out there,. she said, while adding that it must be deemed a floor, not. a ceiling for sustainability standards.
FSC told Reuters it had actually not damaged requirements in action. to SFI competition. Instead, FSC said, the competition has prompted. it to improve and fine-tune its certification process to make sure. it stays the gold requirement for responsible forestry.
SFI said competition among certifiers does not exert a. down pressure on requirements but rather promotes continuous. improvement. The PEFC stated it allows regional groups including. the SFI to develop their own standards, which the PEFC said. adds to long-lasting commitment to sustainable forest. management practices.
Though some corporations prefer FSC-certified wood, few. clients understand the difference among accrediting groups and their. labels.
Peter Wood, a forestry speaker at the University of British. Columbia who has served on FSC-rulemaking committees, called the. SFI's creation a chess move.
The industry wished to take the power far from FSC, and it. worked, he stated. Now, everything is certified.
RACE TO THE BOTTOM
FSC's early standards highlighted the need to safeguard main. and old-growth forests. One pivotal provision read: Main. forests ... will be conserved. Such areas shall not be replaced. by tree plantations or other land usages.
However business grumbled the policy was too limiting and. difficult to enforce, said Grant Rosoman, a Greenpeace forests. advisor and former FSC International board member.
FSC members spent years disputing policy changes and in 1999. eliminated requirements to save primary forests. Rather, the. FSC adopted a more subjective requirement to safeguard forests. with high preservation value, based upon an intricate matrix of. ecological, financial and cultural qualities.
That unclear language, still in effect, gives business broad. impact over which forests get approved for protection. It has likewise. spawned a market of specialists-- hired and paid by. forest-products companies-- to perform studies determining which. forests have high conservation value, according to FSC audits. and six current and former FSC members.
Rosoman of Greenpeace was among the FSC's members who. approved the language at the time. He now regrets it, believing. its subjectivity allowed damage of critical forests. The. continued logging of main forests and old-growth forests was. never ever dealt with, he stated.
FSC acknowledged that its rules enable accredited logging in. such areas but said the high conservation worth designation aims. to ensure such harvesting is performed with the greatest level. of analysis and duty.
In another significant concession, FSC in 2004 presented the FSC. Mix system, which created a brand-new label for products including. up to 30% wood from non-certified sources.
The relocation came after pressure from pulp-and-paper companies. consisting of Klabin of Brazil, SCA of Sweden and Mondi of South. Africa, along with book publishers and furniture makers,. stated Rosoman, who took part in the negotiations.
Mondi did not comment. SCA said it might not address its. role at the time due to the fact that the business has actually since been divided into. 2 firms. Klabin did not address concerns on whether the. business affected the FSC Mix guidelines. However it said the label. alleviated the logistical concern of separating wood from certified. and non-certified sources, a view echoed by SCA.
FSC Mix has given that become the certification group's dominant. label, accounting for more than three-fourths of the FSC-product. trade, according to a 2017 FSC paper. The paper added that FSC. Mix was the main source of income for the operating costs of. FSC.
The FSC informed Reuters it does not know what portion of. FSC-certified items use the Mix label today. The label, it. said, helps business shift to more sustainable. practices.
FSC Mix guidelines provide companies wide latitude to use the label. Some consumer-products companies are enabled to put the Mix label on. products that contain no FSC-certified material at all because. the FSC gives them credit for certified content in other. items they offer.
The SFI likewise offers a label-- SFI Licensed Sourcing--. that makes no assurances that items contain any wood from. licensed forests, so long as business meet certain other. conditions.
Phil Guillery, a previous FSC United States board member and. supply chain stability director, stated permitting uncertified wood. into the FSC system brought a lot more timber and forest-products. companies into the organization and gave them more influence.
They understood and learned about the politics of FSC, and. they became extremely effective, he said.
Wood, the University of British Columbia lecturer, served on. 2 FSC groups that starting in 2011 attempted to revamp what. internal critics had actually called a weak system of company. self-assessments to guarantee their FSC Mix products did not. contain wood from undesirable sources, such as unlawfully. gathered forests. The guidelines modifications took eight years in a. procedure that was greatly affected by market, he said.
The FSC informed Reuters the procedure resulted in a considerable. reinforcing of rules governing non-certified wood. Wood had a. various take, stating the limitless deliberations did little to. screen out problematic sources of timber. He called his. involvement a horrible experience.
I just wished to turn away from the whole project, he. stated, and alert people: 'Don't trust it.'
QUALIFIED FOREST DESTRUCTION
Environmentalists slam the FSC but normally take a. harsher view of the SFI, mentioning its founding by a market. group and weaker forestry requirements.
The SFI disagreements that it serves just industry interests,. informing Reuters its standards show input from a varied group. of collaborators including ecologists on its board.
Environmental groups consisting of the Sierra Club, Stand.earth. and the Natural Resources Defense Council state the impact of the. SFI's industry-friendly method is clear in British Columbia,. where the organization has actually dominated accreditation.
The province, a showcase of Canada's raw beauty and diverse. ecosystems, has seen old-growth forests decrease by more than 50%. over the last twenty years, according to the 2021 and 2023. studies. A subset of highly productive old-growth woodlands--. forests with the largest trees saving the most carbon, and also. the most attractive to logging companies-- has declined by an. approximated 85%.
The SFI became the certifier of choice in British Columbia. largely due to the fact that market viewed the FSC's early guidelines as too. burdensome, said Karen Tam Wu, an FSC specialist during the 2000s.
The wood market and Canada's government share in the. logging wealth. Canada's forests are normally on public land,. which implies provincial federal governments get a cut of the profits from. every dropped tree. In British Columbia, that amounted to more than. $ 7.3 billion over the decade ending in March of this year,. according to the province's forest ministry.
British Columbia in 2020 revealed a strategy to protect its. decreasing old-growth forests after years of public pressure. A. year later on, authorities launched maps revealing at-risk areas where. it required a deferral of logging. But the federal government never ever. barred visiting those zones, instead leaving it to industry. discretion.
Some significant companies picked instead to continue harvesting,. including Vancouver-based Canfor Corp, an international timber-and-pulp. manufacturer.
Canfor in 2022 whacked about 3,700 acres of old-growth. forest the federal government had recommended for deferral of logging,. according to satellite images analysis from Stand.earth. The. provincial federal government stated previously this year that more than. 50,000 acres of old-growth forest had been gathered in areas it. sought to protect.
BC's Ministry of Forests stated it is not seeking to end all. old-growth logging which harvesting in some areas is. possible and essential to support regional, sustainable tasks. while safeguarding forests.
SFI certified Canfor's large western Canada operations in. 2019, 2021, 2022 and again last year. None of the openly. launched audit summaries ever discussed the cutting of. old-growth forests. Significant auditing firm KPMG, which conducted. the evaluations, had no remark.
Nothing in SFI's standards would have avoided logging of. old-growth forests.
SFI said old-growth-forest harvesting in British Columbia is. contentious, including settlements among governments,. industry and indigenous communities. It said its standards. require compliance with all appropriate laws.
Canfor stated it is dealing with native groups,. neighborhoods and government to review old-growth management and. look for input into our proposed harvesting.
' LIKE PRINTING CASH'
Logging companies' capability to select their own watchdogs. poses the biggest barrier to promoting high sustainability. standards, environmental advocates said.
The auditing structure all but assurances logging business. can get certified, said Simon Counsell, who was an FSC starting. member while with the not-for-profit group Pals of the Earth. He's. now an FSC critic.
There's a clear, vested financial interest for the. auditor, since giving FSC accreditations leads to more. auditing opportunities, Counsell said. It's like printing. cash.
The FSC stated it prevents conflicts of interest by outsourcing. evaluations and accreditation to independent auditors who take a look at. business' forestry practices and are paid by the firms being. accredited. The companies, it said, pay a separate yearly. administration charge based upon their forest-products profits that. goes to the FSC after being collected by the auditor.
In one example of industry impact over sustainability. audits, a significant Canadian wood company, Resolute Forest. Products, defeated an effort in 2014 to remove its FSC. certification in a western Ontario forest by taking legal action against and. eventually shooting its auditor.
Resolute for many years dealt with charges from researchers and. environmentalists that its clear-cuts in the FSC-certified Black. Spruce Forest had actually decimated environment for threatened forest. caribou. As early as 2012, auditors at the Rain forest Alliance,. a nonprofit employed by Resolute, found the lumber company failed. to fulfill FSC habitat-protection requirements. Another 2013. Jungle Alliance audit took a look at grievances from ecological. groups that Resolute's logging will lead to the extirpation of. caribou from the Black Spruce Forest.
Auditors suspended Resolute's accreditation in January 2014,. mentioning a failure to satisfy FSC forest-protection requirements. In. May 2014, Resolute sued the Rain forest Alliance and its. auditors, personally, calling their reviews flawed and biased. The company sought $400,000 in damages. It likewise asked for an. injunction obstructing the audit's public release, which an Ontario. court gave. The suit noted that accreditation was. important to Resolute's service design.
The suit was settled in 2015, with the alliance concurring. to designate brand-new auditors to renovate Resolute's unfavorable evaluation. The. follow-up audit discovered Resolute satisfied FSC requirements and had. dealt with the problems from the earlier audit.
Chris Wedeles, one of the original auditors Resolute sued,. said he was disappointed that the new auditors examined the. very same evidence and pertained to a different conclusion.
The Rainforest Alliance renewed Resolute's certification. Undaunted dumped the alliance anyway, moving its auditing. business in 2016 to SAI Global, which has re-certified the. business every year because.
After the settlement, Resolute's then-CEO Richard Garneau. told FSC's global director general in a 2015 letter that. the firm would take out of FSC unless the certifier dealt with. the business's grievances about burdensome FSC requirements. A. leading Undaunted executive was chosen to FSC Canada's board in 2021. and continues to serve today.
Resolute did not respond to questions about its forestry. practices or its claim but said it supports the highest. standards in forestry management.
SAI Global, Garneau and the Rainforest Alliance, which no. longer carries out FSC forestry audits, declined to comment.
The FSC stated it was not associated with the conflict in between. Resolute and its auditor which it wasn't affected to change. its standards by Garneau's 2015 letter. FSC indicated current. suspensions of certifications in Quebec as evidence of its. dedication to protect caribou.
Meanwhile, problems with caribou in the Black Spruce Forest. continue.
In 2020 and 2021, SAI Global auditors found that Resolute. might not corroborate the effectiveness of its. caribou-conservation plan. The auditors dealt with the matter,. however, after an Undaunted specialist argued that logging would. decrease to a level that could sustain caribou populations--. though not until 2039.
BULLDOZING FORESTS FOR OIL
One of the world's largest stretches of certified forests is. in northern Alberta, where the FSC has actually accepted the logging. practices of Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries Inc.
. Over the last twenty years, about 878,000 acres of these. woodlands, a location more than twice the size of Los Angeles, have. been set aside to make way for oil companies to operate open-pit. mines, drilling websites and pipelines in Canada's oil sands. The. oil exploration involves clear-cutting and bulldozing the. forest. Some ecologists consider it one of the world's. most devastating industrial tasks.
Alberta-Pacific Forest Industries holds logging rights to. the forest, that includes old-growth forests, according to. company disclosures and ecological research studies. A clause in the. business's contract with Alberta permits regulators to designate. chunks of the woods for oil-and-gas development.
When that happens, the FSC allows Alberta-Pacific to do a. carve-out: eliminating the FSC certification from the land significant. for oil advancement, while keeping accreditation for the. surrounding forest. The plan has actually enabled Alberta-Pacific. to maintain accreditation in the area since 2005 despite the. oil-related damage.
FSC said it motivates qualified firms to participate in. dialogue and utilize their impact to impact land-use decisions. such as oil-and-gas advancement. But the company said such. choices are outside of FSC's direct accreditation scope and. are governed by provincial and national laws.
Alberta-Pacific said it is proud to have actually been FSC-certified. considering that 2005 which it has a goal of maintaining biodiversity. and other forest values. It said FSC's policies allow. carve-outs for oil development because the resulting. ecological effects are beyond the full control of. Alberta-Pacific.
Alberta-Pacific earns money from the oil development: Under. a contract with Alberta, it receives settlement from. oil-and-gas firms for the ruined forests. It can likewise offer. wood from forests cleared for oil mining under the FSC Mix. label, FSC audits program.
Some of the oil is extracted through surface area mining, a. procedure that needs the forest to be bulldozed and removed of. vegetation and soil to make way for pits that can be numerous. feet deep.
The mining is completely unsustainable, said Barry Robinson,. an Alberta ecological attorney who has specialized in. oil-and-gas problems. It will be generations before it ever grows. trees once again.
(source: Reuters)