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What is the greatest legacy of ROI-Powell? McGeever: Becoming Fed's Defender-in Chief

Jerome Powell is about to preside over what will almost certainly be his final Federal Reserve policy meeting. The debate rages on the merits and place of this eight-year tenure in the pantheon of the 113 year-old institution.

A few notable stumblings aside, his economic standing is solid. He is a strong defender of Fed independence.

He wasn't the only one who thought that rising inflation in 2022 was "transitory". Many policymakers from around the world shared his view. The Fed's inflation target of 2% is still above and rising.

Critics also point out that the Fed balance sheet has doubled to a record-breaking $9 trillion under his leadership, as the central banks fired their policy bazookas in order to support the economic recovery after the pandemic. Some critics claim that the Fed was too aggressive with its quantitative easing, and too slow in reversing it. However, the effects are difficult to quantify.

Powell has vehemently denied the charge that the Fed's interest rate cuts were political in nature.

Powell is a highly regarded Fed official, and his decisions were made in the midst of a global pandemic as well as a technological revolution, trade wars, and actual wars.

His legacy as a champion of Fed independence is even more impressive.

STANDING UP AGAINST PRESSURE

This legacy is partially due to circumstances. The number and intensity of President Donald Trump's personal attacks on Powell and the leadership of the Fed are unprecedented. Powell has been criticized in hundreds of public and social media comments for failing to lower interest rates fast enough.

Trump threatened to fire Powell repeatedly. There was also an indictment that has since been rescinded relating to Powell's testimony regarding renovations at the Fed Headquarters, the Eccles Building, in Washington.

Last time a Fed chair was under such intense pressure, it was over 50 years ago when President Richard Nixon heavily relied on Arthur Burns to maintain a loose monetary policy.

Powell isn't the only one who refuses to submit to presidential authority. William McChesney Martin Jr. defied Lyndon Johnson to not raise interest rates. But McChesney Martin didn't have to deal with a daily barrage of public criticism or threats of criminal charges.

Powell has mostly refused to respond Trump's barbs. But on two occasions, both in front of the camera, he responded in ways that are sure to be long remembered.

VIRAL VIDEOS

It was almost comical. Both men wore white hard hats and stood next to each other in front of the media at the Fed headquarters. Powell, in apparent disbelief at Trump's criticism of the renovation cost, told him that his figures were incorrect.

The scene was both awkward and unintentionally humorous.

The tone of the second event was far more serious. The Fed released an extraordinary video message on January 11 in which Powell responded to the Department of Justice's threat of indictment. He said he thought it was because the Fed refused to "bow down" to Trump's demand for lower interest rates.

Powell, in a somber tone, said: "It's about whether or not the Fed can continue to set rates based on economic and evidence-based conditions or if monetary policy is instead dictated by political pressures or intimidation."

Trump has publicly criticized many prominent figures from business and politics. Few people have responded, particularly in the business and public policy world.

Why did Powell refuse? Powell may have resisted because he is an institutionalist, and believes in the independence of the central bank. He's also a Republican who has been around for a while but respects the Washington bipartisan machine.

He also seems to have the support of the public. Gallup's December poll showed Powell to be the most popular U.S. politician among 13 policymakers and legislators in the survey. Powell received a 44% rating of approval. Powell also scored highest among Independents.

DEFENDER-IN-CHIEF

Some things are inarguable when discussing Powell's legacy.

As Powell's presumed replacement Kevin Warsh acknowledged last week, America is now?close to full employment.

Powell can't claim all the glory. It is fair to say that the Fed, under his leadership, helped secure this outcome, which most policymakers, on a macro-level, would welcome.

In July 2023 with interest rates at 5% I wrote a piece suggesting that if the U.S. had a "soft landing" - with no recession and?inflation close to target - in 2024, but only a mild decline with historically low unemployment, "Powell could lay claim to being the most effective Fed chief in the history."

This scenario was largely realized, and he became the Fed's top defender.

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(source: Reuters)