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Investors track US-Iran tensions as oil hovers at a six-month high

The oil price dropped a few pennies per barrel on Friday. It was supported by the lingering tensions between Iran and the U.S.

Brent crude futures closed at $70.69 per barrel, a decrease of 2 cents (0.03%). The March contract will expire later this Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate finished at $65.21 per barrel, down 21c or 0.32%.

John Kilduff said, "Iran is the main focus right now." Kilduff is a partner at Again Capital. The market has priced in geopolitical risks?on Iran but it is difficult to quantify at this stage. If there is any action taken against Iran, what will the Iranians respond?

Oil prices reached their highest level since early August on Thursday. According to multiple sources, Donald Trump was weighing targeted strikes against Iran and other actions that could disrupt the oil supply. Since then, both the U.S.and Iran have expressed a willingness to engage with dialogue. However, Tehran said on Friday that its defence capabilities shouldn't be included in any discussions.

Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn said, "These gains?paused amid the prospects of a cold ceasefire?between Russia?and Ukraine?and the possibility that an Iranian attack might not happen, as Trump opens the door to talks about Iran's nucleonic program?" In recent weeks the U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East. It issued new sanctions against seven Iranians and one entity. The dollar's rise from its four-year lows earlier this week has put pressure on oil. The dollar's strength on Friday was a result of Trump's announcement to choose former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next U.S. Central Bank head when Jerome Powell's tenure ends in May.

The stronger dollar may limit the demand of oil buyers paying in foreign currencies. The?change of sentiment is also influenced by the rising U.S. crude output following shutdowns, and Kazakhstan's nearing the restart of production at Tengiz. Given the week's bullish performances, it would be reasonable to expect some profit-taking before the weekend, said PVM Oil Analyst Tamas Varga. According to calculations based on estimates from industry sources, the peak maintenance period for Russian primary oil refinery this year is expected in this month and September.

A survey of 32 analysts revealed that the majority of them expect oil prices to remain near $60 per barrel in 2015, as geopolitical tensions are offset by oversupply. Reporting by Erwin Seba, Seher Dareen, Shariq Khan, Stephanie Kelly, Florence Tan, and Siyi LIu in Houston Editing by David Goodman, Jane Merriman, and David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)