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After Trump appoints Warsh to the Fed and inflation data, stocks tumble, while dollar rises

The dollar rose sharply after U.S. president Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor, as his nominee to be the next chairman of the central banks. Meanwhile, a reading for inflation was higher than expected.

Warsh is a 'frequent critic of the Fed. He is seen to be an advocate for lower interest rates. But he would also'stop well short' of the aggressive easing that some other nominees might do. If he is confirmed by a Senate that is closely divided, Warsh will take over the Fed chair position when Jerome Powell's tenure ends in May.

Trump said that it was inappropriate to ask Warsh if he would lower interest rates. However, he added that he was confident Warsh would do so. Wall Street stocks fell as economic data revealed that the Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5% in December, exceeding the 0.2% forecast of economists polled. This was after a 0.2% increase unrevised in November. Import tariffs appear to be increasing the costs of businesses. Investors continued to assess a slew corporate earnings. Apple closed up 0.43% following the iPhone maker's quarterly results, while KLA Corp dropped more than 15% after posting its earnings.

"Some of the anxiety is due to the uncertainty of a newly nominated chair. We'll be having new priorities and perhaps a new monetary policy. That's angst, but on the whole, his selection had been widely anticipated among the other candidates on the shortlist," said Terry Sandven. Chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, Minneapolis.

Sandven said, "Today (Friday) volatility is more a function that inflationary indicators are persisting and then?secondly you have earnings that are still being digested. The question about earnings is whether the massive capex amounts that are spent are profitable."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped?179.09, or 0.36 percent, to 48.892.47. The S&P 500 fell?29.98, or 0.43 percent, to 6,939.03, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 223.30, or 94%, points to 23,461.87.

The Dow dropped 0.4%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. The S&P 500 grew 1.4% for the month. The Dow rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq grew 0.9%.

MSCI's global stock index lost 7.26 points or 0.69% to 1,042.93, though it was still on track for the largest monthly percentage gain since September. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 0.64%. This index held gains after Trump's Fed statement. Strong earnings helped propel the STOXX 600 to its largest monthly gain since may. The index has now gained seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2021. The dollar rose in response to the Warsh announcement, and the inflation data. It continues to show signs that it is stabilizing following recent weakness.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) rose by 0.57%, to 96.73. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.54%, to $1.1904. The dollar is still on course for a third consecutive monthly decline, and a second straight week of decline.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. note increased by 2.4 basis points, to 4.251%. This is on track for the second consecutive monthly increase. This would be the first time since early 2024 that a monthly gain has been made. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market's expectations on the rate-cutting path were not significantly changed by the Warsh announcement. It was still pricing in less than 50% of a chance that a cut would occur before the June central bank meeting. Alberto Musalem, the president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said that the U.S. Central Bank does not have to lower interest rates any further unless inflation or the job market deteriorates. The current policy rate is 3.50-3.75 percent. The recent rally in metals was tempered by the strength of the dollar. Gold fell below $5,000 an ounce, after reaching a record high of almost $5,600 per ounce on Thursday. Gold spot was down 10.14 percent to $4,847.87 per ounce and is poised to end a three week streak of gains. Its performance in January was its best since November 2009, with a gain of more than 12%.

Spot silver plunged 27.66%, to $84 per ounce. This was its largest daily fall since 1982. U.S. crude fell 0.32% and settled at $65.21 per barrel. Brent, however, eased a little to $70.69 a barrel, down by 0.03% for the day. Both Brent and U.S. Crude are holding close to six-month highs, supported in part by persistent tensions between Iran and the U.S.

(source: Reuters)