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Dollar drops, gold reaches record high as US prosecutors pursue Powell

Gold reached a new record high on Monday and the dollar as well as Wall Street futures both fell. A criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has stoked fears about the independence and power of the world's largest central bank.

Powell

Slammed

The move was part of President Donald Trump's push to gain greater control over the Fed. For traders, it added to the frenetic start 2026 has seen, with the U.S. already capturing Venezuela's

Nicolas Maduro

Set your sights on

Greenland

. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq were both down by more than 0.6% before the U.S. open. The VIX "fear gauge" was at its highest level since November, and gold, which investors use as a hedge to protect themselves from both inflation and turmoil, hit $4,600 per ounce.

Bond markets have also priced a slight increase in the likelihood of a short-term U.S. rate cut. The STOXX 600 index in Europe remained close to its record highs, as new peaks were set by the arms market and the Swiss Franc, another safe-haven currency. Also the euro and sterling strengthened on the FX markets.

Lee Hardman, MUFG's Lee Hardman, said that the latest development marked a significant escalation of the fight between President Trump & Fed Chair Powell. He added that "the repeated assaults on the Fed's independent" continue to pose downside risk for the dollar.

Fed funds futures added about three basis point more in cuts in this year. This is small, but points out the risk of the Fed being pushed to be more aggressive.

Silver's 5% increase was also accompanied by gold's 1.5% rise. The rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran also boosted the market. Oil prices fell as commodity traders did not show any immediate panic. This was especially true with the possibility of Venezuelan crude entering the market. Trump said that he is weighing up a variety of options, including military ones, in response to the violent crackdown of Iranian protests, which are one of the most significant challenges to the country's ruling clerics since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, said in an English translation on Monday that the situation is "under control". Brent crude futures fell around 50 cents to just below $63 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude crude, however, was down 45 cents at $58.60.

The clerical establishment in Iran intensified its crackdown against the protests, and both benchmarks increased by more than 3%.

Saul Kavonic is the head of MST Marquee's energy research. He said that while oil prices have increased in recent days, they are still underestimating risk, given the possibility of a wider conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

He added that "the market is asking for disruptions in supply before it responds materially."

TRUMP VS POWELL

Bank shares were the main cause of the drop in Wall Street Futures. Trump also put the Fed in the crosshairs by calling late Friday for an

One-year cap

On January 20, interest rates on credit cards will be 10%.

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America dropped between 2.5% to 4% during premarket trading. American Express lost nearly 5% while consumer finance companies Synchrony and Capital One fell over 10%.

For traders, the second week of 2018 will be dominated by U.S. inflation figures, Chinese trade data and a number of U.S. earnings, starting with JPMorgan on Tuesday. Fed chief Powell responded to Trump's threat to indict by saying it was a "pretext". This was to pressure the central bank into cutting interest rates.

Powell's term as chair ends in May. In a statement, Powell said that "this unprecedented action must be seen within the context of the Administration's threats and continued pressure." Economists say the latest developments represent a dramatic escalation of the fight between Powell, who was appointed chair by Trump in 2018, and Powell.

Andrew Lilley is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey Investment Bank, a Sydney-based investment bank.

Investors will not be pleased, but this shows that Trump has no other levers at his disposal. The majority of FOMC will keep the cash rate at what they want it to be.

Even against currencies that are typically considered risky, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar, the dollar's reaction was the most dramatic. The dollar index fell 0.4% in Europe, and is on course for its largest one-day decline since mid-December.

The greenback suffered a terrible 2025. It dropped more than 9% compared to major peers as interest rates differentials shrank as the Fed lowered rates, and concerns about U.S. budget deficits and political unrest swirled.

Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank, said: "This open war between the Fed and U.S. Administration... is clearly not good for the U.S. Dollar."

(source: Reuters)