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US stocks are mixed and gold is up as economic forecasts outweigh trade tensions

US stocks are mixed and gold is up as economic forecasts outweigh trade tensions

Wall Street stocks were mixed Tuesday, and Treasury yields fell as investors weighed the upbeat economic outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with renewed U.S. China trade tensions. S&P 500, Dow and crude prices all fell sharply after the opening of the three major U.S. indexes. Gold prices, a safe haven, also jumped above $4,100 for the first time.

The Nasdaq, which is dominated by tech stocks, remained modestly lower. Powell warned that the U.S. overall economy may be "on a slightly firmer trajectory than anticipated" in a speech he gave on Tuesday. He also said there was no "risk-free policy path as we navigate between our employment goals and inflation targets." This was in line with an IMF report that raised its outlook for global growth as the impact of tariffs and financial conditions has been less than expected. The IMF, however, warned that a trade war between two of the largest economies in the world could have a significant impact on output.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage.

On Tuesday, the United States and China started charging port fees tit for tat.

Late last week, bilateral trade tensions that have roiled world markets in recent years erupted after China tightened its controls on rare earth exports. U.S. president Donald Trump responded by threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese products into triple digits. The third quarter earnings season kicked off with positive quarterly results from high profile financial firms such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup also reported good results.

Cardillo said that if the banks are any guide, this will likely be a good earning season. This is another factor that supports the recent highs in the market. LSEG data show that analysts estimate an aggregate growth rate of 9.2% year-on-year for the S&P500 in the third quarter, up from the 8.8% reported at the start of the month. Official economic data are unavailable as the U.S. shutdown continues due to a partisan impasse in Congress. A National Association of Independent Business survey showed that small business sentiment was deteriorating, as inflation concerns returned to the forefront. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 392.34 points or 0.85% to 46,460.87. The S&P 500 rose 18.74 points or 0.28% to 6,673.46. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 42.25 points or 0.18% to 22,652.35.

European stocks closed lower on Friday as renewed U.S. China trade tensions soured investors' sentiment. French tire maker Michelin also cut its annual forecasts, sending its share price to its lowest level in over two years. Investors watched developments in France where the prime minister seemed to be holding off on a major pension overhaul.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.51 points or 0.05% to 981.60.

The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.37% while Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 fell by 7.41 points or 0.33%.

Emerging market stocks dropped 12.50 points or 0.92% to 1,340.81. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell by 1.02% to 695.44. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1,241.48 or 2.58% to 46,847.34.

Treasury yields fell but were still off their lows after Powell's remarks and the revised IMF growth outlook. The benchmark 10-year U.S. note yield dropped 2.3 basis points from Friday's 4.051% to 4.028%.

The 30-year bond rate fell by 0.6 basis points, from 4.634% to 4.6282% late Friday.

The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates, dropped 3.9 basis points from Friday's close to 3.483%.

The oil prices dropped on the back of trade war fears and a report by the International Energy Agency that raised the prospect for increased supplies while dampening the demand.

U.S. crude oil fell 1.33% on the day to settle at 58.70 dollars per barrel. Brent settled at $62.39 dollars per barrel.

As trade-related risks increased, the dollar dropped while the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen strengthened.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.27%, while the euro rose 0.32%, reaching $1.1605

The dollar fell 0.32% against the Japanese yen to 151.78.

Bitcoin fell by 2.13%, to $113.334.48. Ethereum fell 3.91% to $4.121.82.

Gold rose above $4,100 on the back of rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the safe-haven demand that arose from the latest salvos in the Washington-Beijing Trade Spat.

Spot gold increased by 0.88%, to $4146.12 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.32% to $4121.80 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)