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Gold prices rise on weak US employment data and lower oil prices; focus is on nonfarm payrolls
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as weaker-than-expected U.S. Jobs data and lower oil price eased inflation worries, while investors awaited nonfarm payrolls to get clues about the Federal Reserve policy. Gold spot rose by 0.9%, to $4,065.51 an ounce as of 0425 GMT. It had reached its highest level since the 23rd of June in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for August delivered fell 0.1% to $4,078.20. The bullion recovered from a more-than-seven month low to close higher on Wednesday at $4,029.89 after data showed that U.S. employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, which was below the economists' expectation of 118,000. Nicholas Frappell is the global head of institutional markets for ABC Refinery. He said, "The market is cautious about shorting down here, because you see a few probes to the downside that are being quickly rejected." Frappell said that "ADP data was a bit lower than forecast so that probably explains the gold's rally, as some people believe that the data would be reflected in the non-farm payrolls." Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that both inflation expectations and risks have decreased in recent weeks. He also reiterated the central bank's commitment to bring inflation to its 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a roughly 64% chance of a rate increase in September. The Fed's rate decision could be influenced by the June nonfarm payroll data, which is due at 1230 GMT. The oil prices dropped after Iran and United States concluded indirect talks on Wednesday. They focused on the Strait of Hormuz but made few progresses toward a lasting agreement. Gold is no longer a good investment in high-interest rates. Silver spot rose by 1.8%, to $60.20 an ounce. Platinum gained 2.3%, to $1.613, while palladium increased 1.5%, to $1.228.18. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Ronojoy Mazumdar, Eileen Soreng and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Climate change snares Net-zero champion Europe
The 'June heatwave' that broke temperature records across Europe has brought to light the urgent need for adaptation to global warming. The European Union has been a leader when it comes to climate change. It was among the first major economies that?set a legal binding target of reaching net-zero emission by 2050. A June heatwave in Europe - which peaked at over 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) - revealed that businesses, amenities, and critical infrastructure were not ready for climate change's immediate effects. Krzysztof Blesta, Poland's Deputy Minister of Climate, said, "We haven't done enough to adapt." This was after power supplies were disrupted in parts of the region, outdoor work in some places was banned, trains in Germany were cancelled, and in Sweden, a cargo train derailled due to extreme temperatures buckling metal rails. Spain, one of the worst-affected countries, reported an excess of 1,000 deaths it attributed to the record heat. The EU does not have the expertise to adapt buildings and public areas to extreme heat. Instead, it is the national or regional authorities who are responsible for this. Wopke H. Hoekstra told journalists that it was pointless to try to tell the Greeks and Spaniards how to fight wildfires. He said that the Dutch were better at building dikes than the rest of us. The EU plan will focus on best practices and common scenarios. Even though global warming is heating Europe faster than any other continent, the EU still spends little on adaptation. Official figures reveal that between 2021 and 2025 72% of climate-related expenditures from the EU joint budget went towards mitigation or limiting greenhouse gases which cause warming. Only 18%?went toward adaptation and 9% dealt with both issues. Incentives for mitigation - Financial incentives The EU has a number of financial incentives to reduce emissions. These include subsidies for renewable energy and the EU Emissions Trading system, which limits the amount of?emissions that companies can produce, while allowing greener firms to trade their excess permits to pollute at a profit. Bolesta, a Polish politician, said that there is no similar incentive for businesses to invest in adaption measures. He said that it was easier to understand the business case of mitigation because there is a cap-and-trade, carbon credits and renewable energy companies. "Adaptation is mainly regarded as an expense with long-term benefits. So delayed gratification. But it can also be just a policy of insurance - it may or may not kick in." The Dutch bank ING stated in a report this week that extremes caused by climate change, such as heatwaves and droughts, cost the nearly stagnant European economy 0.3% of its output in 2013. ING stated that "the uncomfortable truth is heatwaves are now considered macro variables, not just weather events." The thermometer has, in fact, become a leading indicator. Costs to economies can range from the threat to tourism and farming in southern countries to the difficulty in working in offices not adapted for hot weather. According to an official estimate, a day of heat over 30 degrees Celsius costs the German economy EUR430,000,000 ($465,000,000) in productivity losses. However, according to the Federal Environment Agency, only 50% of German offices are air-conditioned compared to 90-95% of southern European offices. Geraldine Dany Knedlik, a researcher at the German Institute for Economic Research DIW, said: "We (Germany), have built for cold but not for heat for decades. This is an adaptation gap." Irene Seemann, who leads efforts to assist businesses with climate adaption in the large German State of North Rhine-Westphalia said that there are signs of a mindset change. Seemann explained that, "to use a football metaphor, Germany is one-nil up because heat hasn't been a big issue." "Now, companies are recognizing that it has a direct effect on their operations." Some simple adaptation fixes can be done for a relatively low cost. The glass-domed building is protected by laws that prohibit structural changes. German flooring company 'Project Floors' applied reflective film to its Cologne headquarters. Reflective film was applied to the windows of the German flooring firm?Project Floors' Cologne headquarters. The windows were able to reduce indoor temperatures by 10° Celsius. Bernd Greve, managing director of Project Floors, said: "It's simple, it works, and there is no need for power." Some require fundamental changes in workplaces and labor organisation. For example, rearranging shifts at cooler times during the day or reinventing public transport networks and urban space. The progress has been made compared to the deadly heatwave of 2003. World Health Organization published a statement last week that estimated the number of heat-related deaths would have been 80% higher in Europe today, more than 20 years later, if adaptation measures had not been implemented. These include heat-health plans, early warnings and cooling spaces, as well as outreach to the most vulnerable. Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO regional director for Europe said: "They save lives now." We need more in the entire European region.
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Morning bid Europe-Shares fall as markets wait for likely payrolls data
Stella Qiu gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. After a?bumper quarter, global shares have retreated. The quarter-end rebalancing is partly responsible, but there are also concerns about the AI party's future. The news that Meta plans to sell surplus AI 'compute makes one wonder if they still need to purchase all those hot chips. Asia got a bad start. South Korea initially suffered a 7% drop on the back of heavy selling of chipmakers such as SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics and others. However, this has now slowed down. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.2% and the KOSPI lost 3%. European stock exchanges are preparing for a flat opening, with pan-regional stock futures up 0.1%. Futures on the Nasdaq rose by 0.3%, while those for S&P 500 were up 0.2%. The focus hereafter will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls, which arrive a day earlier due to the Independence Day Holiday on July 4. The median forecast by economists is for a rise in?jobs of 110,000, with a range from 25,000-200,000. It is likely that the football World Cup created thousands of temporary positions, increasing the chances of a positive surprise. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Treasury yields are 'climbing in anticipation of some strong numbers. Two-year yields are up 9 basis points this week, regardless of what Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh says about inflation risks coming down. A strong jobs report will add to the market pricing of policy tightening by the Fed in this year. The move in September is about 80% priced in. However, a weaker result would reduce pressure on any interest rate increases this year. Oil prices, which fell to a new four-month low last Thursday, are providing comfort to global central banks. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), said that inflation and growth risks are more evenly distributed now as markets reduce the likelihood of an ECB interest rate hike. Later in the day we will also be able to see the euro zone unemployment rate (for?May), where a forecast of a constant 6.3% is expected. Inflation in June was lower than expected at 2.8%. The yen was hovering near a '40-year-low at 162.52 per dollar. U.S. employment data will likely be pivotal in determining the yen's near-term fate. Japan has increased its intervention rhetoric, but it has yet to be seen on the market. Sources said that officials are abandoning the habit of telegraphing interventions and instead planning a calculated campaign in order to increase the cost of betting on the yen. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. The US payroll report for June Euro zone unemployment rate in May Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speaks in Spain
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Manufacturing strength is a key factor in the rise of aluminium
Aluminum prices edged higher on Thursday as signs of strength in the manufacturing industry supported their rise. Benchmark?aluminium for three months on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.59% to $3,094 per metric ton by 0300 GMT. The most-traded aluminum contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.09%, to 22,505 Yuan ($3,316.83). The manufacturing strength was evident in the prices of light metals used for transport, packaging, and construction. China, Europe, and the U.S. released data on Wednesday that showed manufacturing strength, despite higher input prices. The price of aluminium has dropped in the past two weeks due to the peace process between the U.S. and Iran, which reduced the premium for metals that were a result of war. Copper was also?subdued' in other places. A June deadline for a recommendation on potential ?U.S. The deadline for a recommendation on potential?U.S. tariffs was June, but the White House did not announce anything. Copper prices have been driven by concerns about tariffs in recent months. The LME copper price was stable with a rise of only 0.02%. On the SHFE, it fell by?0.09%. Kevin Warsh, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, made a balanced comment on inflation that boosted?base metals markets. They feared that stubborn inflation would lead to?higher interest rates for longer. Increased interest rates suppress economic activity, which in turn impacts industrial minerals that are dependent on growth. The demand for copper has been boosted by the growth of AI infrastructure, grid investment and electric cars. Nickel?dipped by 0.15%, tin fell by 0.49% and lead was up only 0.19%. On the SHFE, lead fell 0.63%, tin rose 0.34%, and nickel dropped 0.47%.
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After the US-Iran talks in Doha concluded, oil prices fell for a third day.
Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday, for the third day in a row, after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made progress during 'indirect talks' focused on the Strait of Hormuz. This area handled a fifth of global oil supplies before the war. In a blog post, a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the discussions had produced "positive progress" in relation to the memorandum which ended the war in the month of June. However, there was no indication that both sides had made any progress towards a lasting peaceful. Brent futures fell by 77 cents, or 1.1%, to $70.80 per barrel at?0256 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped by 84 cents, or 1.2%, to $67.74 per barrel. The benchmarks for both indices fell by more than 1% during the last session and reached their lowest level in four months. Haitong Futures stated in a report that as the strait remains open and crude oil continues to flow out, expectations of an oversupply are increasing and the competition for market share is driving prices lower. Sources said that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a new increase in output goals for August at their Sunday meeting. UBS cut its Brent predictions on Thursday, citing the U.S. Iran memorandum of Understanding and the increase in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It has cut its average Brent forecast by $25 for the quarter ending September and by $10 for the quarter ending December. The bank expects that the benchmark will average $80 per barrel in the second half and $75 by 2027. UBS stated that "despite this, we do not believe it's?premature? to assume full normalisation & price risks are skewed to the upside, given the fact that inbound tankers have lagged behind outbound tankers." Qatar's Foreign Ministry has also confirmed that the next meeting between Iran and U.S. diplomats will take place on July 9 after the funeral procession for Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Gold prices rise on weak oil and soft US jobs data
Gold prices rose on Thursday due to softer than expected jobs data, and lower oil prices. The market is now looking forward to the U.S. payrolls release today for new clues about the Federal Reserve. As of 0251 GMT on Tuesday, spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,057.92 an ounce after reaching its highest level since the previous session. U.S. gold for August delivery fell 0.3% to $4,070.10. Bullion ?hovered close to a more than seven-month low on Wednesday before closing higher at $4,029.89, after private payrolls data came ?in softer-than-expected. Nicholas Frappell is the global head of institutional market at ABC Refinery. He said, "The market is cautious about shorting down here, because you see a few probes on the 'downside' that are being quickly rejected." Frappell said that "ADP data was a little bit lower than forecast. This probably explains the gold's rally, as some people think the data will be reflected in the non-farm payrolls." ADP's national employment report shows that private employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, after a 122,000-job increase unrevised in May. The ADP national employment report showed that economists polled had predicted private employment to increase by 118,000. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair, said that inflation risks and expectations have decreased in recent weeks. He also reiterated the Fed's commitment to bring inflation to its 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a roughly 64% chance that a rate hike will occur in September. Investors will be watching for the non-farm payroll data due later today to get more clues about the Fed's policy. The oil prices dropped after Iran and the United States ended a round of indirect negotiations on Wednesday. They focused on 'the Strait of Hormuz but made few progresses toward a lasting agreement. A stronger labor market and increased oil prices can fuel fears of inflation and interest rates that are higher for longer. Gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation. However, in an environment of high interest rates it becomes less attractive as a non yielding asset. Silver spot rose by 1.6%, to $60.06 an ounce. Platinum gained 2%, to $1.607.67. Palladium increased 1.4%, to $1.227.13. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich in Bengaluru, Ronojoy Mazumdar, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Asian shares drop as chipmakers drag and US jobs data looms
Asian shares fell on Thursday, as investors shifted out of the chipmaker sector after a stellar third quarter. Currency and bond markets were bracing for U.S. employment data that could give hints about interest rate hikes. Oil prices have fallen to their lowest level in four months, with Brent crude down 0.8% at $71 per barrel. This is after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that talks between the U.S. and Iran went well in Qatar. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 0.8% on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1% and added to the losses of the first day of this quarter. South Korea's KOSPI fell 2.7%, continuing a 2% decline from Wednesday. This was after a 68% increase in the second quarter, mainly due to an exploding demand for AI-related memory chips. SK Hynix fell 7.7%, and Samsung dropped 6.2%. This was in response to a report that Meta Platforms has built a cloud computing business for the purpose of?selling excess AI computing capability,' which sent Facebook's stock up 8.8% over night. Hong Kong's Hang Seng broke the Asian trend with a 1.8% gain. In the first half 2026, foreign investors sold Asian stocks at the highest rate in at least 16 year as the AI-driven rally forced the to cut their biggest winners from South Korea and Taiwan in order to hunt for cheaper laggards. Investors are focused on the non-farm payrolls report due this month on Thursday due to a holiday on Friday in honor of Independence Day. This year, Independence Day falls on a Sunday. The economists polled expect an increase of 110,000 jobs in June. However, forecasts vary widely, ranging from gains of up to 200,000. This suggests that there is a high chance of a surprise. Forecasts predict that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%. There is no one rigid strategy that equity traders can follow. Equity players are looking for a Goldilocks result: stable unemployment and decent job creation. Equity bulls will welcome anything that prevents a significant increase in the implied probability of rate hikes near term. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair, said that inflation risks have eased in recent months, but this relief was only temporary for Treasuries. Warsh said that he will "stick firmly" to his 2% inflation goal and "disappoint anyone who expects a loose monetary policy." The markets are currently pricing in about 80% of the?odds that a rate increase will occur in September. Treasury yields are climbing as traders prepare for a strong jobs report, which could lead to bets on a rate hike in the near future. The yields on U.S. 2-year bonds rose by 1 basis point (bp), or 9 bps, to 4.1785% on Thursday. The 10-year yields remained at 4.4811%, after climbing 10 bps in the past week. The U.S. Dollar was supported by higher Treasury yields. The euro dropped 0.4% against the dollar overnight after European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde stated that inflation and growth risk were now more broadly balanced. The euro was stable?in Asian hour on Thursday, at $1.1379. The yen was unchanged at?162.59 a dollar after hitting a new 40-year-low of 162.84 Wednesday. Tokyo has issued its usual intervention warnings in response to the slide. The impact of the interventions in April/May was short-lived despite the Japanese authorities spending 12 trillion yen. After a tough quarter, gold rose 0.5% to $4.050 per ounce. Stella Qiu, Stella Qiu and Kevin Buckland contributed to this report.
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Oil drops after US-Iran talks end in Doha
Early trade on Thursday saw oil prices drop after Qatar announced that Iran and the U.S. made "positive progress" during indirect talks concluded on Wednesday. The talks focused on the 'Strait of Hormuz which handled one-fifth of the global supply of oil before the war. Brent futures fell 73 cents or 1.02% to $70.84 a bar by 0102 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped 83 cents or 1.21% to $67.75 a bar. Both benchmarks dropped more than 1% in the previous session to their lowest level in four months. Sources claim that the U.S., Iran and their negotiators spent two days at Doha to discuss maritime traffic on the 'Strait of Hormuz' and the unfreezing of Iran funds. Although traffic is partially back on track, both countries exchanged strike last weekend after an Iranian attack against a cargo vessel. Two senior Iranian sources have said that Iran is determined for international recognition to be given to its control of the Strait, even if this means using force. Tehran has repeatedly stated that it will impose tolls for shipping in mid-August after the toll-free period stipulated by the original agreement expires. The tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has begun to recover. U.S. Vice-President JD Vance said that oil flow through the waterway was back to prewar levels. He did not provide any figures. Haitong Futures stated in a report that as the strait remains open and crude oil continues to flow out, competition for share of market keeps driving oil prices lower, and there is growing expectation of an oversupply. Sources said 'on Wednesday that OPEC+ countries are likely to agree on a new increase in output from August at their Sunday meeting. Sources said that the target for August will be the same as it was for June and for July: 188,000 barrels/day. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 3.8 million barrels last week to reach 408.4 millions barrels, their lowest level since September 2018. The result was less than what analysts had expected in a poll that predicted a drop of about 4.5 million barrels. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul in Beijing, Sam Li, Lewis Jackson)
Blackstone to expand Spanish data center project by $5 billion
Blackstone, a U.S. asset management company, is planning to invest an additional 4.3 billion euro ($5.03 billion), in order to expand the planned project of building data centres in Spain’s Aragon. The region is aiming to become a cloud computing hub.
The documents filed with the regional authorities show that, in addition to an initial investment of nine billion euros spread over nine years that was announced in 2024 by the world's biggest alternative asset manager, a second phase will be added at the same location, depending on the demand from clients.
The company stated that the second phase will take seven years to complete.
Blackstone has chosen the same region as tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon, where around 20 data centres are currently being evaluated.
Document stated that the first phase will begin in the second quarter 2026. The project would include eight data centres as well as an electricity substation and a photovoltaic plant.
The company stated that it has signed contracts to supply renewable electricity for all of its needs. Its cooling systems won't use water, which is a resource in Spain that can be in short supply. $1 = 0.8542 Euros (Reporting and editing by Inti Lauro and Louise Heavens).
(source: Reuters)