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Dollar eases with Trump's Fed Battle, US Treasury Yields

The dollar and short-dated U.S. Treasury rates fell on Tuesday. President Donald Trump's decision to fire a Federal Reserve Governor raised concerns about the independence of the U.S. Central Bank. Wall Street stocks also edged up.

Trump announced on Monday that he had fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook due to allegations of improper mortgage borrowing. Cook stated that Trump does not have the authority to fire Lisa Cook and she will not resign. Her term was set to expire in 2038.

Trump's unprecedented move could result in a long-lasting legal battle, which risks setting new norms regarding the independence of the central bank and presidents' involvement in monetary policies. Cook's departure from the Fed may accelerate Trump's attempts to reshape Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates policy.

Trump has pushed the Fed to reduce rates in order to stimulate growth and lower borrowing costs.

The expectation of a more dovish Fed pushed yields on shorter-dated U.S. debt lower. A Fed that is politically motivated to keep rates lower than normal could cause inflation fears and decrease foreign demand on the basis of credibility concerns. These factors will affect longer-dated bonds.

"President Trump has launched a potentially ineffective and risky battle against the Fed. Brian Jacobsen wrote that it would take seven FOMC members to vote in favor of Trump, and not two or four.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This month, he fired an official at the Labor Department after accusing her without evidence of manipulating job data which had disappointed him. Trump has now backed off from this threat, as Powell's term is about to expire in May next year.

Inflation Report

On Cook News, the dollar dropped against major currencies. A global stock index fell as European shares declined, with losses in France leading the way, as political unrest in France increased. France's CAC40 fell by 1.7%, as it became more likely that the country's minor government would be overthrown next month.

Investors are awaiting Nvidia’s results, which will be released on Wednesday, and the key inflation report due later this week.

The market is very focused on the inflation rate, consumer spending, and corporate earnings. Oliver Pursche is senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, a firm in Westport, Connecticut. He said that despite the pun, this trumps all.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 3.22 points at 45,285.69. The S&P 500 gained 5.71 points or 0.09% to 6,445.03 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 30.17 points or 0.14% to 21,479.47.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 2.37 points or 0.25 percent to 950.59.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index ended 0.83% down.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.29%, while the euro rose by 0.27%, reaching $1.1649.

The dollar fell 0.31% against the Japanese yen to 147.31.

The 2-year note

US2YT=RR

The yield moves along with the expectations of interest rates. The yield was down by 4.3 basis points, to 3.687% from 3.73% at the end of Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. note fell by 1.7 basis points, to 4.258%.

Investors eagerly await the U.S. consumer prices reading on Friday, which is considered to be the preferred inflation indicator by Fed.

Morgan Stanley became the latest brokerage on Tuesday to predict a U.S. rate cut for September. This follows other global firms who had forecasted a policy-easing in September in Powell's speech from last week.

Gold prices rose, but oil prices dropped more than 2%. U.S. crude dropped 2.31% to a price of $63.29 per barrel. Brent, however, fell to $67.23 a barrel - a 2.28% drop on the day. Gold spot rose by 0.57%, to $3385.53 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)