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Angola's economic and debt challenges

Angola's economic and debt challenges

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for Angola in 2025 to 2.4%. This was primarily due to concerns over the impact that lower crude oil prices would have on government finances, and the higher interest rates seen on global markets.

Angola's economic and debt challenges are explained here:

Why are investors concerned about Angola? The dollar bonds of the small African economy were also hammered during the turmoil on the markets that followed the U.S. tariffs imposed at the beginning of April. Concerns grew in April, when JPMorgan requested an additional $200 million of security from the government to back its $1 billion loan backed by Angola’s dollar bonds. Angola was also heavily exposed to the oil price drop that came with the turmoil on the markets. This heightened the concerns.

IMF data shows that Angola's crude oil exports are the second largest in sub-Saharan Africa. They account for 95% of its exports and 60% of government revenues. It is also estimated to be responsible for three quarters or all economic activity.

In its budget for 2025, the government assumed that oil prices would be $70 per barrel. However, during the peak of the market sell-off the price fell as low as $65. Brent crude traded at $63.93 per barrel on Thursday.

All of this is happening as the government must repay external debts totaling $9.1 billion in this year. This includes a Eurobond that matures in November.

WHAT HAS GOVERNMENT SAYN ABOUT THE PROBLEMS? Vera Daves de Sousa, Finance Minister, said that the drop in oil prices has increased the likelihood that the government will turn to the IMF to get a new loan.

The Ministry of Finance has also defended the borrowings up to this point by saying that loans were used for building hospitals and boosting water supply.

The government said that it would review its budget if pressure continues. It will also carefully consider its future debt financing to ensure debt sustainability. Angola's analysis of debt sustainability shows that the total debt was close to 70% GDP last year, and is expected to continue to fall as a percentage of economic output.

The IMF, however, classifies Angola as a country at high risk of financial distress due to its exposure to currency risks. Around 80% of Angola’s debt is held in foreign currencies, including oil-backed Chinese loans.

The government claims it has increased repayments to China, and that the country can weather the storm of lower oil prices. Angola does not have a strong local debt market to which it can turn when external financing becomes tighter.

The IMF stated that a push last year to remove fuel subsidy to relieve financial pressure did not achieve the desired savings.

What is the social impact and what are the government's options?

Angola’s social service spending has decreased by 55% in the last two years due to the increasing debt burden. Debt Justice is a campaign group based in London.

Analysts said that the pressure had also hampered its ability to invest heavily in infrastructure projects. Angola plays a major role in a new U.S.-backed transportation corridor, Lobito. It links the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, and Angola’s Atlantic Coast, which exports minerals.

This week, the government held talks with IMF officials. One of these meetings was between IMF Africa chief Abebe Aemro Selassie (and Angola President Joao Lurenco) in Luanda. Angola has not yet provided any information on a possible new lending program. Reporting by Duncan Miriri, Nairobi; and Miguel Gomes, Luanda. Editing by Karin Strohecker & Toby Chopra.

(source: Reuters)