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Oil prices fall as economic uncertainty dampens demand expectations

Oil prices fall as economic uncertainty dampens demand expectations

Crude oil fell early in Asian trading on Monday as investors reduced their expectations of demand growth due to the ongoing US-China trade war.

Brent crude futures dropped by 25 cents or 0.4% to $65.61 a barrel at 0024 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 18 cents or 0.3% to $61.87 per barrel. Both benchmarks dropped more than $1 Monday.

A majority of economists surveyed said that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the world’s trade by imposing tariffs against all U.S. imported goods has increased the risk that this year’s global recession will be a reality.

China, which was hit by the highest tariffs, responded with its own duties against U.S. imported goods, sparking a trade conflict between the two top oil-consuming nations. Analysts have been forced to lower their forecasts for oil demand and prices.

Barclays cut its forecast for 2025 Brent crude prices by $4, to $70 a barrel. The company cited increased trade tensions as well as a shift in the production strategy of OPEC+. These factors are driving a surplus oil supply this year of 1 million barrels per day.

Sources told us last week that several members of OPEC+ (which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies) will propose an acceleration of production increases for a second month consecutive in June.

In a recent note, oil analyst Philip Verleger stated that a substantial drop in the price of (oil) is likely if exporting nations increase production.

According to an initial poll conducted by analysts on Monday, the U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased by around 500,000 barrels during the week ending April 15.

The American Petroleum Institute, a trade group, will release its estimate of U.S. crude oil inventories on February 2. The Energy Information Administration is expected to release official figures on Wednesday. (Reporting and editing by Sonali Paul in New York, Shariq Khan is reporting from New York)

(source: Reuters)