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Oil price volatility and the Israel-Iran conflict has investors on edge
Investors were nervous ahead of the markets' reopening on Sunday evening. The risks ranged from increased prospects of a wide Middle East conflict to U.S. protests against Donald Trump, which threatened further domestic chaos. Israel and Iran have launched new attacks against each other on Sunday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israeli strikes will intensify, as Tehran has called off the nuclear talks which Washington had argued were the only way to stop the bombing. Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, also joined the fray. The price of oil rose by 7% Friday as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes. Investors will be closely watching the market opening to see what happens. Samy Chaar is the chief economist at Lombard Odier. He said that we are still in a phase of "controlled confrontation" and it's too early to predict real economic damage, despite the high risks. He said: "For the moment, we are seeing spikes in oil prices, volatility and everyone is a little nervous. But there's no sign that the scenario of no return has arrived." Israel may have struck Iran's oil-and-gas industry for the very first time on Saturday. Iranian state media reported a fire at a gasfield. Israel's air assault against Iran, which began in the early hours of Friday morning, killed commanders, scientists, and bombed nuclear sites, all to prevent Tehran from building an atomic device, knocked down risky assets, including stocks, Friday. The air offensive also increased oil prices, and led to a rush for gold and dollars. For the first time since months, they were seen as safe-haven assets. The oil prices are at a six-month high, and this could be a threat to inflation as central banks across the globe grapple with Trump's tariffs on trade and their impact on the economy. Chaar, a Lombard Odier economist, said that a rise in oil prices shouldn't in theory affect monetary policy at this time. This is because any disruption in Iranian oil supply could be partially offset by increases in production elsewhere. Chaar added that the days of central banks raising rates due to a surge in oil prices are long gone. Instead, policymakers would be more likely to focus on the fundamentals of the economy and the drivers for demand. Investors remain nervous, however, as the S&P 500 has stalled out after rallying by about 20% since its April lows caused by trade wars to reach near-record highs. Alex Morris, Chief Investment Officer of F/m Investments Washington said: "The risk profile is too high to return to the market at this time." Meanwhile, Protests The "No Kings Coalition" has organised a protest against The policies of and the assassination The resignation of two Minnesota state legislators on Saturday has added to the negative mood. U.S. Stock Futures will resume trading on Sunday at 6 pm (2200 GMT). Investors' expectations of near-term market fluctuations jumped as risky assets fell. The Cboe Volatility Index (often called the "fear index" of Wall Street) rose 2.8 points on Friday to close at 20,82, its highest closing in three weeks. Michael Thompson, coportfolio manager of boutique investment firm Little Harbor Advisors said that he will be monitoring volatility futures near-term prices to see if they rise towards or above the levels for futures expiring in a few months. He said: "This would suggest to us that short-term hedging was warranted." Reporting by Saqib Ahmed and Linda Pasquini, Editing by Alden, Richard Chang and Amanda Cooper, Susan Fenton and Susan Fenton
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Macron visits Greenland as a sign of European resolve following Trump's annexation threat
French President Emmanuel Macron is visiting Greenland this Sunday in a show to Denmark of solidarity, and to send a message of European resolve following the threat by Donald Trump to seize control of the island. Greenland is an autonomous part of Denmark, with the right to declare its independence. Greenland's and Denmark's governments both say that it is not up for sale, and that only Greenlanders have the right to decide their own future. Donald Trump said that he wanted the United States take over the strategically located, mineral-rich Arctic island. He hasn't ruled out using force. In March, JDVance, his vice president, visited an American military base on the island. Macron was invited to Greenland by the Prime Ministers of Greenland, and Denmark. He is the first foreign leader since Trump's explicit threat to "get" Greenland. He said that his visit was to stop any "preying" of the territory. France has been with us ever since the first comments about taking our land were made. The support from France is both needed and appreciated," Greenland Prime Minister Jens Frederik Nielsen wrote days before Macron's arrival on Facebook. A Macron adviser told reporters that the trip was a message in and of itself, without mentioning Trump. On Sunday, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on RTL radio: "Greenland has a European character and it's normal for Europe and France to show interest." According to a IFOP survey for NYC.eu, published on Saturday 77% of French people and 56% Americans disapprove an annexation by the U.S. of Greenland. 43% of French would be in favor of using French military force to prevent an invasion by the U.S. Macron will also visit Nuuk's capital, a hydropower plant funded by the EU, a glacier and discuss Arctic climate change and security with his hosts. Greenland, though Denmark is a member of the EU, is not. The French advisor said that the visit was an opportunity to discuss ways to give Greenland’s association partnership with EU a “new dimension". Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Prime Minister, made several trips to Paris following Trump's threats of seeking French and European support. She has also placed orders for French surface-to air missiles in an effort to shift focus to Copenhagen. Florian Vidal, a think tank in Paris, IFRI, explained that Denmark's decision to enlist the EU's sole nuclear power was a way of projecting a hard power against a suddenly aggressive United States. He said that the Trump administration's aggressiveness is a shock, which makes the French vision of Europe more reasonable to Denmark. From a Nordic perspective, France is an important military power. (Reporting from Michel Rose in Paris, Stine Jacobsen at Copenhagen; Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke and Dominique Vidalon; Editing by Sophie Walker.
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Russian news agencies reported that Russia had handed Ukraine 1,200 more bodies of war dead.
Russian state media reported that Russia handed Ukraine 1,200 more bodies of Ukrainian soldiers who died in the war on Sunday. Moscow, they said, had not received any Russian corpses in return. Both Russian state-run news agencies TASS (Russian) and RIA (Russian) reported the transfer, citing a source that was not named. This is the fourth of a series in which remains of soldiers have been handed over in the last week. The agreement was reached by Russia and Ukraine during talks held in Istanbul at the beginning of this month. Kyiv agreed to hand over 6,000 bodies, and exchange prisoners of war who were severely wounded or sick. They also agreed to swap those under 25 years old and prisoners who were seriously injured. Russia has handed the bodies of almost 5,000 Ukrainian military personnel to Ukraine, but only received 27 Russians in return. Ukraine and Russia have exchanged POWs three times, but they have not revealed the exact number. Reporting by Felix Light, Editing by Andrew Osborn
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Russia claims to have struck a refinery which supplies fuel to the Ukrainian army
The Russian defence ministry announced on Sunday that Russian forces had carried out a nighttime strike on the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery, which supplies fuel to Ukrainian troops in the Donbas area. In a statement, the ministry said that missiles fired from sea and air were used to attack the refinery located in Ukraine's Poltava Region. Strike drones also appeared in this successful attack. The Russian report on the battlefield was not verified and the Ukrainians did not immediately comment. Russia claims Ukraine's eastern Donbas as its own, and controls the majority of Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine has said that it will use a mix of diplomacy and force to regain territory lost to Russia in the Donbas region. Separately, the Russian Defence Ministry announced that its forces had taken over the village of Malynivka located in the Donetsk Region (known in Russia as Ulyanovka). The Russian military also claimed that its forces had penetrated deep into the enemy's defences in Ukraine’s Sumy region, and suffered heavy losses against Ukrainian units. Sumy isn't one of the areas Russia has claimed as its territory, but they have spoken of creating an area there. The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced on Saturday that Ukrainian troops had recaptured Andriivka in northeastern Sumy, as part of an effort to expel Russians from the area. He claims that Russia has 53,000 troops near the area. Reporting by Andrew Osborn/Felix Light, Editing by Jan Harvey & David Goodwin
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G7 leaders gather in Canada to avoid Trump clash
The Group of Seven Leaders will gather in the Canadian Rockies on Sunday, amid a growing divide with the United States regarding foreign policy and commerce. Canada is trying to avoid clashes between President Trump and the host country. The conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and U.S. Tariffs are likely to be prominently discussed. Israel, an ally of the United States, launched a barrage on Iran's borders on Thursday. This was a blow for Trump's diplomatic efforts in preventing such an attack. The summit will be held in Kananaskis Mountain Resort, about 90 km (56 mi) west of Calgary. Last time Canada hosted the summit, Trump left before he had denounced Justin Trudeau at the time as "very dishonest" and "weak". He also instructed the U.S. delegation to withdraw their approval of the final communiqué. This will be a success meeting if Donald Trump does not have a ruckus that disrupts everyone. "Anything above that is gravy", said Roland Paris, professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and former Trudeau's foreign policy advisor. Trump has frequently mused on annexing Canada. He arrives as Carney threatens retaliation if Washington doesn't lift the tariffs on aluminum and steel. The best-case scenario is that no major problems will arise in the future, said Josh Lipsky. He was a former White House official and State Department official and chair of the Atlantic Council's international economics department. Carney's Office declined to comment on the impact of the Israeli strikes on the summit. NO JOINT CONMUNIQUE Diplomats say Canada is no longer interested in the traditional joint communique, and will instead issue brief chair summaries to contain a crisis and maintain engagement with the U.S. Senior Canadian officials told reporters Ottawa was interested in actions that the seven countries - Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom and United States could take together. Canadian Senator Peter Boehm said that he was told the summit would be longer than usual in order to allow time for bilateral meetings between the U.S. President and Canadian senator. Among the expected guests at parts of Sunday's event are leaders from Ukraine and Mexico, as well as India, Australia, South Africa South Korea, Brazil and South Korea. Boehm told Boehm by phone that "many will want the opportunity to speak to President Trump regarding their particular concerns and interests." On Friday, a senior U.S. government official stated that the working discussions will cover trade, global economics, vital minerals, drug and migrant smuggling as well as wildfires. Other topics include international security, artificial intelligent, energy security and security of natural resources. The official stated that "the president is eagerly pursuing his goals in these areas, including making America's trading relationships fair and reciprocal." The visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Oval Office, in February, descended into bitterness and served as a warning to other world leaders on the delicate dance that they will have to perform in order for them negotiate with Trump. Diplomats have said that the frustration they feel in dealing with Trump's administration has made them more assertive. Canada has been one of Ukraine’s loudest supporters for a long time. Trump promised to end the Russian war within 24 hours when he came to power, but diplomatic efforts have failed to resolve the conflict. A Ukrainian official who was involved in the preparations for this summit stated that hope for a strong support for Ukraine had dwindled. Success for Kyiv will be a meeting between Trump Zelenskiy. An official from Europe said that the G7 Summit and the NATO Summit in The Hague in later June offered an opportunity for Trump to be reminded of the importance of pushing forward with the sanctions bill drafted by U.S. Senators, along with a new European package designed to pressure Russia to a ceasefire or broader discussions. Early Test Max Bergmann is a director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said that Trump's first summit with foreign leaders will give some early clues as to whether Trump wants to work with allies in order solve problems. The big question is: Are the United States still committed towards formats such as the G7 format? Bergmann stated that the test will be "the big one". Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has stated that he enjoys a good relationship with Trump despite their differences in regards to Ukraine and climate change. Macron announced on Friday the postponement of a United Nations Conference co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia to discuss a two state solution between Israel, and the Palestinians. The conference was scheduled for after the G7.
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Foreign Minister: Iran will not expand conflict with Israel but will defend itself
Abbas Araqchi, the Foreign Minister of Iran, said that Iran did not want to see its conflict with Israel spread to its neighbouring countries, unless it was forced. He added that its response to Israel had been in self-defence. Araqchi stated that Tehran was responding to an aggression from abroad, and if the aggression stopped, Iranian responses would cease. The Foreign Minister said that the Israeli attacks on the South Pars offshore gas field Iran and Qatar share were "a blatant act of aggression" He said that dragging the conflict into the Persian Gulf was a strategic error, with the aim of dragging the war outside Iranian territory. Israel, according to the foreign minister, was trying to sabotage Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks. He said that this could have led to an agreement. Tehran was scheduled to make a proposal on Sunday, during the sixth round of negotiations that were cancelled due to recent tensions. Araqchi stated that Tehran did not believe American claims that Washington was not involved in recent attacks. It is important for the United States not to support Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, if they wish to demonstrate their good will." (Reporting and editing by Dubai Newsroom)
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Yemen's Houthis launch ballistic missiles at Israel in coordination with Iran
Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis announced on Sunday that they were targeting Israel in coordination and coordination with Iran. This is the first time a group with an Iran alignment has publicly announced a joint attack with Tehran. In a recent televised speech, Yehya Saarea, the military spokesperson said that the Yemeni group had targeted central Israel's Jaffa in the past 24 hours with a number of ballistic missiles. He added: "This operation was coordinated along with the Iranian army's operations against the criminal Israeli enemies." Earlier, the Israeli military said that sirens had been activated in various areas of the country in response to missile launches from Iran or Yemen. Israel and Iran have continued to trade missiles since Israel's biggest ever military strike on its long-standing enemy, Iran, was launched last Friday. Israel attacked Iran on the same day. Israel A missile launched by Yemen in the direction of Israel landed in Hebron, in the West Bank occupied. However, the Yemeni group did not claim responsibility. Since Hamas's attack on Israel in October 2023, the Houthis have launched attacks against Israel. Most of these have been intercepted. They claim to be supporting Palestinians in Gaza in the war between Israel and Hamas. Israel has conducted a number of Retaliatory strikes In 2018, the U.S. launched intensified attacks against the Houthis, but President Donald Trump stopped the offensive when the Houthis agreed not to attack American ships. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Jaidaa Taka)
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Amnesty International reports that gunmen have killed at least 100 people across Nigeria's Benue State.
Amnesty International Nigeria reported Saturday that at least 100 people were killed by gunmen in an attack on a village located in central Benue, Nigeria. In a social media post, the group said that the attack occurred from late Friday night into early Saturday morning in the village Yelewata. The post added: "Many are still missing...dozen injured and without adequate medical treatment." The post said that "many families were burned in their bedrooms." Benue lies in Nigeria's Middle Belt. This is a region that connects the predominantly Muslim North with the largely Christian South. Land use is a major issue in the region. There are conflicts between farmers and herders who compete for arable land to cultivate. The tensions between ethnic groups and religions can often exacerbate them. In a series weekend attacks in the Gwer West district of central Benue, Nigeria, last month at least 42 people died after being shot by suspected herders. According to SBM Intelligence, since 2019, more than 500 people have died in the conflict and 2.2 million others were forced to flee their homes. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul in Bengaluru. Reporting by Surbhi Misra from Bengaluru)
QUOTES-Markets respond as tensions increase in the Middle East
Increasing geopolitical stress sent out U.S. investors out of stocks and into safe havens such as Treasuries and the dollar on Tuesday, after the U.S. cautioned it had signs that Iran may be planning a ballistic rocket strike versus Israel.
The S&P 500 was recently down 1.1% while the Nasdaq Composite Index was off 1.6%. The dollar was up 0.4%. versus a basket of currencies. The U.S. benchmark 10-year. Treasury yield was just recently down about 8 basis points at 3.72%.
QUOTES:
ALLAN SMALL, SENIOR INVESTMENT CONSULTANT, ALLAN SMALL. FINANCIAL GROUP WITH IA PRIVATE WEALTH, TORONTO
Markets had gotten used to a lot of geopolitics as Israel. continued its fight in Gaza and with Hamas; it seemed like that. wasn't impacting markets much. It looked like a great deal of the. battling had actually been done currently and that was winding down and. then here we are - a new trigger comes up. The marketplace will sell. off on that heading, whether it rebounds today or. tomorrow depends on whether the headline coming out now is valid. or not.
If the war intensifies, that obviously is not good for. markets but would benefit the cost of oil, gold and those. stocks though most of the other stocks would probably sell off. like we're seeing today.
MICHAEL BROWN, SENIOR RESEARCH STUDY STRATEGIST, PEPPERSTONE,. LONDON
I believe the preliminary market response to the news has actually been. basically exactly as one would have anticipated, with a knee-jerk. risk-off vibe sweeping across the board, as the dollar vaulted. to day-highs, along with gold and long-end Treasuries, while. stocks and greater beta G10s slumped.
The key question now is the degree to which these preliminary. relocations are consolidated, or pare back, which hinges almost. totally on whether an Iranian attack is certainly forthcoming. Markets, hence, are likely to display an exceptionally high. sensitivity to incoming geopolitical news circulation in the coming. hours. Though, if recent reports are to be thought and the. previously mentioned attack is comparable in scale to that provided in. April, this might be welcomed with a sigh of relief, and not be. analyzed as a significant sign of escalation beyond what has. currently been seen.
ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE. FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN
The circumstance in the Middle East continues to evolve. quickly. With Iran and Lebanon being drawn into the Middle East. conflict more straight, reactions today are playing out in. higher crude and gold rates. While rising geopolitical stress. produce elevated market uncertainty and anxiety over the near. term, financiers will likely measure the longer-term effect of. growing Middle East conflict through prospective influence on oil. supply.
WALTER TODD, PRIMARY INVESTMENT OFFICER, GREENWOOD CAPITAL,. GREENWOOD, SOUTH CAROLINA
It's obviously risk-off. Individuals will buy up Treasuries,. sell stocks, buy oil - all the regular things you would think about. in this scenario.
This highlights the situation of this market in the fact. that there are a myriad of threats out there, whether that's. slowing employment in the U.S., the geopolitical stress in. Ukraine, the Middle East. And the marketplace appears extremely mispriced. for any flare-up of any of those risks ... It's vulnerable to. shocks like this.
LOU BASENESE, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, MDB. CAPITAL, NEW YORK CITY:
The markets are acting naturally. In the lead-up to and. outbreak of war or geopolitical crises, significant indexes sell. reflexively, dropping an average of 5% to 7%. The selling. pressure generally lasts for about two weeks. Within another 2. weeks, though, they generally recuperate. So trading around the. worry or outbreak is a risky proposal at finest.
That said, the nature of each dispute can have more. lasting effect on private sectors or locations of the market,. like oil and defense stocks. In this case, we 'd be hard pushed. to discover anyone that disagrees that an Iranian attack would be a. major escalation and sign of a protracted dispute, which. ought to keep driving both oil and defense stocks greater.
(source: Reuters)