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Oil prices fall as investors wait for clarity following the Iran-Israel ceasefire
Prices of oil fell on Tuesday, wiping out most if not all the gains made in the previous session. This was after?Iran, Israel and President Donald Trump appealed to them to stop their attacks against each other. Both sides, however, warned that they might resume hostilities. Brent crude futures fell 91 cents or 1% to $93.34 per barrel at 0400 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.13 or 1.2% to $90.17 per barrel. Prices rose?as high as 5% the previous session, after renewed Israeli attacks on Iran and attacks against Lebanon?reduced hope of an imminent ending to the larger war. However, gains were pared after Iran's military forces announced that they would cease their military operations against Israel. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that while there was some relief at the recent pause in direct strike, investors were not confident the truce would last. Iran and Israel have halted their attacks after President Trump's appeal that they "stop shooting" immediately. However, Tehran has said it will resume its strikes if Israel continues to strike Hezbollah. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that while this stopped the situation from snowballing, it did not change the fact that the geopolitical background remains tense and a lasting deal of peace remains elusive. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, said in a statement aired by Israeli Television that Israel would use force if Iran attacks again. In an interview with Axios published on Monday, Trump said that he warned Netanyahu?that he might find him fighting alone if went back to war against Iran. Waterer stated that the 'key question' is whether current de-escalation attempts can finally translate into an even longer-lasting solution, or if it is just another temporary lull. Washington's?main demand in the peace talks with Tehran is that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened. This is because the Strait of Hormuz was the route through which a fifth of world oil supply passed before U.S. airstrikes were launched on Iran by Israel and the U.S. at the end of February. The U.S. Military said that on Monday, U.S. Forces disabled an unladen oil tanker after it tried to sail into an Iranian port, in violation of the current blockade of Iran.
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Gold prices steady as traders consider inflation and Israel-Iran ceasefire risks
The gold price was largely stable on Tuesday, as traders watched for signs of progress and inflation in the Middle East conflict. As of 0404 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.1%, at $4,333.91 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion at its lowest level in over two months. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down by 0.1% to $4,358.80. "Gold is trading muted. Traders are sceptical of the durability of the Iran/Israel ceasefire, and remain cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation data this week, which will shape the Fed's outlook," said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade. Iran and Israel announced on Monday that they had stopped their attacks after an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. However, Tehran warned it will resume hostilities should Israel continue to strike Hezbollah. Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2026, and defer rate cuts to 2027. They cite stronger economic activity and job growth. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in more than 70% of a Fed Rate Hike by December. Investors will be watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May, which is due on Wednesday. This data will help them gauge?the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Waterer stated that a return to $5.500 gold is still possible by the end of the year, largely due to central bank demand. However, it would require the cooperation of?oil, bond yields, and?dollar prices to fall. Silver fell by 0.5% per ounce to $67.85, while platinum dropped 0.1% to 1,752.45, and palladium grew 1% to $1,000.42. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Sherry Jacob Phillips, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Bankers: Tata Group's Indian units to sell bonds after a year-long gap
After more than 15 months, two merchant bankers said that two of India's Tata Group Infrastructure units will re-enter the corporate bond markets in the next few days. The Reserve Bank of India left its key policy rates unchanged in the past week, which provided some relief for the market. Tata Steel will raise 30 billion rupees (313.23) through the sale of bonds with a five-year term. Tata Projects, an?real estate company, may raise between 5 and 10 billion rupees by combining three-year paper with five-year paper. One of the bankers said, "Both companies have alerted their merchant bankers and are waiting for the rates to drop further before they tap the market." The bankers requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with the media. Tata Projects didn't reply to an email requesting comment. Tata Steel stated, "We don't have any immediate plans for bond issuances." According to LSEG, before the RBI's rate announcement, yields for AAA-rated corporate bonds of two-to five-year maturity had risen past 8%. This was their highest level since early 2019. Since then, they have fallen by a little over 50 basis points. Tata Steel has 150 billion rupees of outstanding bonds. Its 10-billion rupee maturity is in October. The borrower with AAA rating last raised money in the market on February 20, 2025. It did so by issuing?five-year bond at a coupon of?7.65%. Tata Projects, which is rated?AA by the rating agencies, raised 5 billion rupees in one month through a sale of six-year bonds with an 8.60% coupon.
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Russian attacks on Ukraine kills four as Zelenskiy wins support for ceasefire negotiations
According to officials, four people died and over 20 were injured when Russia struck Ukraine's Kharkiv region with missiles and drones. Meanwhile, the Crimean peninsula, which is annexed by Russia, said that it was repelleding drone attacks. These strikes come after Russia and Ukraine launched large-scale attacks on each other over the past few weeks. Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for the end of the war and suggested direct dialogue between Ukraine with Russia. Zelenskiy, who was returning from London after talks with leaders of Britain and France as well as Germany, said that they were prepared to support ceasefire talks. Zelenskiy said that he also had a "positive conversation" with U.S. Envoys Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner. He praised their willingness to work towards a peace settlement in the next few weeks. Oleh Syniehubov, the regional governor, posted a photo of an apartment burning in a destroyed building. He noted that a drone attack overnight on the regional capital,?Kharkiv, had led to 15 people seeking medical attention, including three children. In a separate post, Galina Mineeva, the mayor of Chuhuiv, stated that six people were injured in the town. Mikhail Razvozhayev said that the defense systems in Sevastopol, which is home to Russia's Black Sea fleet and annexed Crimea by Russia, were repelling an attack from a drone, according to Telegram. The reports could not be independently verified. In the last month, Russia has continued to attack Ukraine's energy infrastructure with Oreshniks while Ukraine has intensified its attacks. Both Moscow and Kyiv claim that gaining battlefield advantage is beneficial to their diplomatic efforts. CAUTIOUS STEPS TO RESUME PACE TALKS The U.S. peace efforts between Ukraine, Russia and other countries have mostly stalled because Washington is focusing on finding a resolution to the Iran War. A source familiar with the situation said that U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials "continue to discuss" a potential visit to Kyiv for Witkoff or Kushner in the near future. The two envoys would make their first official trip to Ukraine. They had previously visited Moscow to hold talks with Russia. Elina Valtonen, the Finnish foreign minister, also told the UN Security Council that Nordic countries support Zelenskiy’s proposal for a ceasefire immediately and direct talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Zelenskiy informed Keir-Starmer, the UK's Prime Minister about the need for more missiles to be used in air defence systems. On Tuesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that NATO countries are increasing their presence near Russia and Belarus. "We are always ready to use all means to guarantee the security of our Union State", he said to the Izvestia, referring to the political, economic and security alliance between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Edwina Gibbs and Jekaterina Glubkova from Tokyo)
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The cost of the Iran war is increasing for India's economy and government finances
India's economy was doing well a few months back. India's economy was humming along nicely a few months ago. India is now counting the costs of the Iran War, which, according to economists, will continue to rise if the deadlock in the U.S.-Iran conflict?remains unresolved' and if oil supplies are blocked. India is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. It ships about 90% of its crude oil. This makes its economy one of the most exposed to war-related disruptions and war-related wars. India announced a series of measures on Friday to limit the impact of the rising rupee on foreign exchange reserves and the economy. Analysts say that the overall drag on growth, inflation, and government finances will continue to grow as long as the oil price remains high. Michael Langham is an emerging markets economist with Aberdeen Investments. As a result of the Iran War, there will be disruptions in the supply of fertilisers, which could impact important crops such as wheat, at a time when farmers are bracing themselves for the El Nino weather phenomenon, which often signals drought. Langham stated that the RBI will find it increasingly difficult to "look past the energy price shocks from the Strait of Hormuz" due to the overlap of these supply-side shocks. Sanjay malhotra, the governor of India's central banking system, spoke at the end last year about an "unusual Goldilocks phase" for India's economy, as it moved into 2026. The inflation rate was falling, and the growth rate remained strong. The Iran war has changed that. India's oil and gas import bill increased by 53% from March to April, leading forecasts that the BoP deficit (basically money entering the economy minus money leaving) would balloon. HSBC believes that the series of measures taken on Friday could help limit currency damage. It had predicted that India's BoP would reach $65 billion by 2026-27. However, the new measures are expected to reduce the deficit by $30 billion. India's BoP was $25.2 billion in?2025-26, or 0.6% GDP. India has also reduced gold imports. It is urging its citizens to limit their foreign travel, and to use public transport more to reduce oil consumption. "DIFFICULT POSITION" The macro-picture is much more difficult. After the war started on February 28, benchmark international oil prices soared to almost $120 per barrel. Gas prices have fallen, but remain 30% higher than before. The same period, the number of people who are able to access healthcare has increased by 75%. The central bank expects an average inflation rate of 5.1% for the year ending March 2027. This is up from the April reading of 3.48%, while the economic growth will drop to 6.6%, down from 7.7% the year before. Interest rate swap markets have priced in at least 25 basis points of rates increases over the next three month and over 75 basis points for the next year. Sat Duhra is the portfolio manager of Janus Henderson Investors' Asia ex-Japan Equity Team. Duhra stated that the energy shock will?undermine growth and put pressure on government finances. He said that any attempt to reduce public sector capex in order to stabilize conditions could lead to a further slowdown of growth. This puts policymakers in an awkward position. Strong OIL DEMAND India delayed raising fuel retail prices because import costs grew. Petrol and Diesel are only up 10% since then compared to 50% or more for some other oil-importing Asian countries. The government is the largest shareholder in the major retail companies, and although the prices of petrol and diesel are not regulated, it exerts a significant influence. High prices in other markets have helped to balance the undersupplied market. Analysts say that the government's strategy of not compensating fuel retailers will cost it financially, as it would reduce its ability to deal with the crisis. A government official has said that the government's subsidy on fertiliser is likely to increase by 20% in 2026/27. The agrarian sector of India's economy, which employs nearly half the country, is dependent on fertiliser. However, this may be even more important in 2018 due to El Nino and its potential for drought. The government has also reduced gasoline and gasoil tax, resulting in a monthly revenue loss of 140 billion rupees. The government targets a fiscal surplus of?4.3% this year. However, a poll predicted it would rise to 4.7%. Some economists even predict it could reach 5%. The Indian credit rating agency Crisil anticipates that retail oil prices will continue to rise, but at a slower pace. This will have an impact on a larger audience. In a report, it stated that "the broader effect" would reverberate throughout the economy due to higher transport costs. This will push up food prices and core inflation.
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Gold prices rise as traders consider inflation and Israel-Iran ceasefire risks
Gold prices were stable on Tuesday as traders weighed the fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, and watched for any signs of progress within the Middle East conflict. They also pondered inflation concerns and interest rate hikes. As of?0222 GMT, spot gold remained at $4,332.50 an ounce. The previous session saw bullion reach its lowest level in over two months. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down by 0.1% to $4,357.10. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that gold is currently trading in a muted manner, as traders are unsure about the durability and the impact of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, but remain cautious before this week's important U.S. Inflation data. Iran and Israel announced on Monday that they had stopped their attacks after receiving an appeal from U.S. president Donald Trump. However, Tehran warned that it would resume hostilities should Israel continue to strike Hezbollah. Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged through 2026, and defer rate cuts until after 2027. They cite stronger economic activity and job growth. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in more than 70% of a Fed Rate Hike by December. Investors will be watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May, which is due on Wednesday. This data will help them gauge?the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Waterer said that a return to $5.500 gold is still possible by the end of the year, driven by central bank demand. But it would require cooperation from oil prices, bond yields, and?the dollar, which all have to?turn lower," he added. Spot silver dropped 0.7% to $67.71 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.2% to 1,751.39 while palladium rose by 0.8% to $1,000.38.
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Asia stocks show a tentative rebound, but bonds are under pressure
The Asian stock markets tried to stabilize on Tuesday. Oil prices fell after Israel and Iran announced that they would halt their attacks against each other for the time being. Ever-hopeful investors, however, bought up the latest dip in semiconductor stocks. Analysts warned that the rebound was only a small one, with 60% of S&P 500 ending in the red over night even though the index as a whole edged upward. In early trading, share futures on Wall Street and Europe also fell. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, and higher bond yields continue to challenge equity valuations. Analysts at BofA stated that "inflation is still sticky enough to cause 46 out of 68 central banks in the world to exceed their targets. This helps explain why bond markets are repricing for tighter policies, as well as why private credit and long-duration assets are suffering, along with several EM currencies. Our Global Breadth Rule indicates that nearly half of the equity markets are already overbought. Leading the way is Korea, Taiwan, and Finland. South Korea's stock market rose 3.0% after plunging more than 8% Monday following a series of spectacular gains that left retail investors with stretched margin positions and valuations. The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.3% after falling 3.9% in the previous session, while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan increased 0.9%. EUROSTOXX Futures, DAX Futures, and FTSE Futures all fell?0.6% in Europe. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures fell by 0.3%. Oracle's results on Wednesday will be the next major test for technology. Price Increases for Rate Hikes Apple shares did not receive any immediate boost from the long-delayed AI revamp of Siri that was unveiled at its Worldwide Developers Conference. OpenAI, a ChatGPT maker, filed a confidential application for an initial public offering in the United States on Monday. It joined rival Anthropic and a rush of equity financing worth a trillion dollars. The bond markets struggled as investors priced in the risk of Federal Reserve rate hikes after the positive May U.S. Payrolls Report. The data on U.S. Consumer Prices due Wednesday is expected to show that energy costs continued to push headline inflation higher in the month of May. Futures prices indicate that a Fed rate hike could happen as early as October. A quarter-point increase is nearly?fully priced in for December. The yield on two-year Treasury bonds remained at 4,158% after reaching their highest level since early 2025, at 4,201%. The markets are fully priced in for the European Central Bank to raise the rate by a quarter point, from 2.25% to 2.25% when it meets on Thursday. By the end of the year, the rate will be at 2.5% or even 2.75%. The dollar remained stable at 160.17, just below the overnight high of 160.395. The next bullish target is the April 160.725 high, but investors are wary that a break might prompt a new intervention by?Japanese officials. The euro was at $1.1527 after hitting $1.1500, a low of nine weeks, overnight. Meanwhile, the pound climbed off a trough of three weeks to $1.3334. Brent crude fell 0.2% overnight to $94.08 per barrel after reaching as high as $98,000, and U.S. crude dropped 0.3% to $91.06 per barrel. Gold fell 0.3%, to $4,316 per ounce. It had touched a two month low at $4,268.39 an ounce on Monday. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Wayne Cole)
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Oil prices rise slightly as investors wait for clarity following the Iran-Israel ceasefire
The oil prices rose in the early trade on Tuesday, after Iran and Israel indicated that they were open to a possible resumption in hostilities despite having called an end to hostilities in response to an appeal by U.S. president Donald Trump. Brent crude futures were up 13 cents or 0.14% to $94.38 per barrel at 0001 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 11 cents or 0.12% at $91.41 per barrel. Prices rose as high as 5% the previous session, after renewed Israeli attacks on?Iran. Attacks in Lebanon also reduced the hope of an imminent conclusion to the war. However, gains were pared?after Iran announced that it had ended its military operations against Israel. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "While investors are not confident that the truce will last, they do feel some relief at the latest pause in direct strike." Waterer said that the market is pricing in continued uncertainty, rather than a permanent resolution. Iran and Israel announced that they had ceased their attacks after President Donald Trump's appeal to "stop shooting" immediately. However, Tehran stated it would resume its strikes if Israel continued hitting Hezbollah. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said that while this stopped the situation from snowballing, it did not change the fact that the geopolitical background remains tense and a lasting deal of peace remains elusive. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, said in a video statement broadcast by Israeli Television that Israel would use force if Iran attacks again. In an interview with Axios published on Monday, Trump said that he warned Netanyahu he could find himself fighting alone in the event that he returned to war?with Iran. Waterer stated that the key question is whether or not current de-escalation attempts can translate into a more lasting resolution. Or if we are simply in another temporary lull. Washington wants to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, as it was through this strait that a fifth of world oil supply passed before the United States. Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against?Iran in late February. On Monday, the U.S. The U.S. military reported that forces in the Gulf of Oman disabled an oil tanker after it tried to sail into an Iranian port, in violation of the current blockade against Iran.
Canada's Suncor on track to surpass 2024 oil production, refinery assistance
Canada's Suncor Energy might exceed its 2024 guidance on oil production and refinery throughput, the business said on Wednesday after reporting betterthanexpected 2nd quarter earnings.
Calgary-based Suncor is Canada's second-largest oil producer with most of its production in northern Alberta's oil sands region.
CEO Rich Kruger has actually been working to cut expenses and enhance operations after taking over in April 2023 following a series of worker deaths on oil sands sites and share price underperformance.
On Tuesday, Suncor reported adjusted earnings of C$ 1.27 per share for the 2nd quarter, compared to experts' average quote of C$ 1.08, according to LSEG information.
So far Suncor is tracking above the high end of its forecasts for 2024 oil production, refining throughout and refined item sales, Kruger told analysts on an incomes call. Suncor had actually said it anticipates to produce 770,000-810,000 barrels daily (bpd) of oil this year.
The sun is shining on this company and we prepare to make hay in the second half of the year, Kruger stated, adding that the company was concentrated on cutting costs and improving operational efficiency, especially on maintenance turnarounds.
Every segment of Suncor's business operated at lower absolute expenses in the very first half of 2024 versus the exact same period last year, Kruger stated.
Suncor shares were last up 6.3% on the Toronto Stock Exchange at C$ 54.19.
The quarter marks the 3rd consecutive data point in tracking Suncor's goals of enhanced dependability and competitive operating expenses, BMO analyst Randy Ollenberger said in a note to customers.
That said, the 2nd half of the year may be a little rough as Suncor progresses with the Fort Hills mine pit shift and further Base Plant maintenance, Ollenberger included.
Production at the 165,000-bpd Fort Hills oil sands mine is expected to be lower in the second half of 2024 as the company concentrates on opening another pit, Suncor Chief Financial Officer Kris Smith said.
The 350,000-bpd Base Plant will undergo upkeep that is expected to cut production by 25,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd in the 3rd and fourth quarters respectively, according to business assistance.
(source: Reuters)