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Jet fuel need growth lags as air traffic goes beyond pre-pandemic level

Worldwide flight activity passed prepandemic levels for the first time in 4 years last week, but jet fuel demand development has not kept apace as newer fleets of aircrafts end up being more fuel efficient and bring more travelers.

Aviation fuel, an item fine-tuned from petroleum, has actually been the single greatest contributor to oil's post-pandemic bonanza, accounting for almost half the boost in total oil demand, according to the International Energy Firm (IEA).

That makes jet fuel's rate of growth vital in forecasting for how long it will consider nonrenewable fuel source need to peak - the greatest question energy market individuals are facing.

Worldwide intake of jet fuel and kerosene was up to 4.7 million barrels daily (bpd) in 2020, as activity froze throughout pandemic lockdowns, down from a peak of 7.9 million bpd the previous year, according to the IEA.

As the lockdowns ended and travel recuperated, need for the fuels leapt by more than a million bpd in 2022 and 2023, IEA information showed.

But global demand development is anticipated to be much smaller this year, at just 230,000 bpd for a total of 7.4 million, according to IEA forecasts.

This is despite air traffic recovering to pre-pandemic levels, with this space emerging since of really considerable gains in overall aircraft fleet efficiency over the last five years, IEA expert Ciaran Healy said.

Flight activity hit a seven-week high in the United States and a 14-week high in Europe last week, JPMorgan analysts stated on Wednesday. China's activity was at 105.3% of 2019 levels, pushing international air traffic to simply above the 2019 levels for the first time, they noted.

The divergence in flight and fuel consumption has actually raised questions of whether jet fuel need will surpass its pre-pandemic peak at all, stated Alex Hodes, an oil analyst with brokerage StoneX.

Efficiency gains alone have reduced jet fuel demand by around 10% versus the exact same level of activity before 2020, and it will take a minimum of another year for fuel need to offset these modifications, stated Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston.

The IEA expects jet fuel need to strike a record later on this decade, while analysts at Rystad said they expect worldwide jet demand to cross 8 million bpd in 2026.

We're hardly are at the same level of 2019, while without the pandemic we need to have been 16% -20% greater given that air travel was growing at 4% annually till 2019, Rystad head of oil macro Claudio Galimberti stated.

(source: Reuters)