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Gold reaches new record highs on the back of tariff fears and exchange-traded funds inflows
Gold prices surged on Monday to a new record high, driven by demand for safe havens amid fears over U.S. president Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Inflows into the top gold-backed ETF in the world also helped. As of 09:33 am, spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,941.60 per ounce. ET (1433 GMT). The session began with a high of $2,956.15, its 11th highest record in 2025. U.S. Gold Futures increased by 0.2% to $2.957.50. The U.S. Dollar index reached its lowest level since December 10 during the session earlier, making bullion cheaper for buyers who use other currencies. Jim Wyckoff is a Kitco Metals senior analyst. He believes that the gold price will continue to rise in the weeks, months and years to come. As long as there is uncertainty, gold will continue to rise. Last week, Donald Trump warned that new tariffs were imminent. These plans are widely viewed as inflationary, and can spark trade wars. This will increase the demand for safe haven assets such as bullion. The SPDR Gold Trust is the largest gold-backed ETF in the world. Its holdings reached 904.38 tons on Friday. This was the highest level since August 2023. Investors are focusing on the $3,000 mark as prices above $2,950 an ounce have investors looking to the metal's price increase of more than 12% by 2025. The U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Report. A majority of economists who had previously predicted a rate cut in March believe that the Fed will wait until the next quarter to make another rate reduction. At least nine U.S. Central Bank officials are also expected to make speeches this week. They are expected reinforce a cautious approach on future rate cuts. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $32.45 per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.8% to $861.95, and palladium lost 2% to $948.00.
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Equinox Gold, a Canadian company, will buy Calibre Mining for $1.8 billion in an all-stock transaction.
Equinox Gold, Canada's gold mining company, announced on Sunday that it will acquire all of the outstanding shares in Calibre Mining. The deal is an all-stock transaction. Equinox hopes to profit from the upcoming Canadian production as gold prices hit record highs. Calibre shareholders receive 0.31 Equinox shares for every Calibre share they hold. This gives the deal an estimated value of C$2.56billion ($1.80billion) per calculation based on their last close. Executives plan to streamline the portfolio. Greg Smith, Equinox CEO, said that the Caliber mines' other mines will immediately provide cashflow into the combined company, and help to reduce debt faster. Smith's position will remain the same in the new company. The deal is expected to be completed by the second quarter this year. It includes two of Canada's newest gold mines, the Greenstone Mine, in Ontario. This mine will pour its first gold in 2024. And the Valentine Gold Mine, in Newfoundland & Labrador. When both Canadian mines are fully operational, the combined company will produce more than 1,2 million ounces gold per year. Darren Hall, the current Chief Executive Officer of Calibre will join as President and Chief Operational Officer. Gold prices are nearing their record high of $2,954.69 per ounce. This is due to central bank purchases, inflation hedging and gold miner earnings. Analysts at TD Cowen, however, see that the deal is valued lower than the recent Newmont assets sales in North America. We would expect that Calibre shareholders may be seeking a higher price, which will include a premium for the change of control. The brokerage stated that there is a possibility of a better bid emerging. Early morning trading saw shares of Calibre Mining down 3.9%.
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Data shows that up to 90% of LME aluminum inventories are controlled by a single party
According to LME data released on Monday, one party controls up to 90% (or half a billion dollars) of the available London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories. The exchange doesn't reveal the identities of those who hold large positions. However, investors and traders often keep inventories in order to take advantage of looming shortages or meet their obligations to customers. Alastair Muuro, a senior base metals analyst at broker Marex said: "It would seem a reasonable assumption that it is a trader who wants to fill a short of metal. Munro said that this is reflected by a recent spate of cancellations at LME warehouses - 32 175 metric tonnes in one week - where owners have given notice of their plans to remove the metal. LME positioning data (#LMEWHL) showed that between 80% to 90% of LME stocks of zinc and aluminium were held by a single party as of 20 February. The exchange said in an email that "the LME closely monitors the tightness of these markets and has all the necessary controls to ensure continued orderliness on the market." Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing owns the LME. The total LME stock of aluminium is 535,900 tonnes, but LME's position data is based on the inventory that has not been cancelled, i.e., those inventories earmarked for upcoming shipment, which are 208,400 tones. At the LME's cash price, 90 percent of the available metal for packaging, transport and construction is worth $505 million. The benchmark LME three-month aluminium price reached its highest level in almost nine months, at $2 736 per ton on Friday. This was in response to a European Union decision to ban Russian primary aluminum imports. LME Stocks Overall Since May of last year, the price of aluminium has halved. This suggests a tighter market. The premium for cash LME Aluminium over the benchmark contract of three months is also reflected. On February 17,, the price of a ton of coal jumped to $38. This was the highest closing price since May 2023. The premium (also known as backwardation) usually indicates a shortage of short-term inventory on the LME. The key LME Zinc spread did not show any backwardation. The LME inventory of the main metal used for galvanizing iron has fallen Analysts have predicted a global surplus for this year. (Reporting and editing by David Evans, Tomaszjanowski and David Evans; Additional reporting by Polina Devtt and Pratima Dasai)
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Andy Home: China tightens its grip on global nickel supplies with Anglo's sale
Anglo American’s sale of its Brazilian Nickel business to China’s MMG Ltd. is a win-win for both companies. Anglo delivers on its shareholders' promise to simplify its portfolio, and pockets up to $500m. MMG, a producer of zinc, copper and cobalt, can diversify and grow its geographical footprint by expanding into Brazil. The market for nickel is one of the few that has shown signs of resilience in the face of a glut. It's not good news for western countries that want to escape China's tightening of the global nickel supply chains. China already controls around 75% the refining capacity of Indonesia, which is rapidly emerging as the world's biggest supplier. China's dominance of the nickel market could grow even more as two other Western producers look to sell their nickel operations because of low prices. Price Devastation Anglo's Brazilian assets include two mines and processing plants, with a combined annual capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel. The two plants produce ferronickel, a metal that is used in the production of stainless steel. Stainless steel remains the biggest consumer of nickel, despite its increasing use in batteries for electric vehicles. The nickel market in this segment was the first to be affected by the Indonesian production boom. This initially took the form of nickel pig iron, a stainless steel competitor. These Class II Nickel products are always sold at a lower price than the Class I high purity refined metal that is traded on the London Metal Exchange. According to MMG's investor presentations on the deal, Indonesia's production boom caused the discount from LME prices to soar from an average of 8.4% in 2001 up to 27.2% by 2023. The LME was also falling, which was bad news for Class II producers. According to Macquarie Bank's Jim Lennon, around half of ferronickel production in the world outside of China or Indonesia has been suspended. CARBON EDGE Anglo-Brazilian operations is among the survivors. The nickel price on the London Metal Exchange has fallen to a four-year low of less than $16,000 per tonne. Anglo's Ferronickel is sold at a higher price than other Class II products because of its superior quality and environmental credentials compared to Indonesian NPI. The carbon footprint has become more important in the stainless steel sector. Carbon Border Adjustment, a tax on imports with higher carbon content, will be implemented by the European Union next year. TURNAROUND The Class II nickel market has turned around, even as the LME Nickel price continues to fall under the weight rising inventories, largely Chinese and Indonesian. According to MMG, the discount on the LME Nickel price has decreased by an average of 25% in the first half last year. The discount for Anglo nickel material has decreased to 15.9%, down from 20.8% by 2023. The closure of large capacity in the West, as well as a shift in product mix in Indonesia have both impacted the supply. Many Indonesian operators switched from producing NPI in the stainless steel sector, to either producing nickel matte or mixed hydroxide in the battery sector. Macquarie’s Lennon believes that the Class II segment was best balanced in the last year, as the surplus Indonesians transferred to the Class 1 segment. This glut can be seen in the LME warehouse stock, which has risen by 30,000 tons this year, bringing it to 192 828 tons. STRATEGIC METHAL MMG believes that the glut of stainless steel will not last past this decade. This is when the combination of a steady increase in global production and a surge in demand for batteries will lead to soaring supply deficits. The company would be in a good position to reap the benefits if it did. Anglo's Nickel assets are located on the third largest nickel resource in the world, which could transform MMG into the largest producer of the metal outside of Indonesia. Although the Brazilian operations produce ferronickel at the moment, they could easily be re-configured in the same way as the Indonesians and produce battery components. China still views nickel as a strategic metal, even though its lustre has diminished in the West. Vale, a Brazilian company, has announced a $1.4bn impairment on its Thompson Nickel operations in Canada. Vale also launched a review of their business. Thompson nickel is not the only nickel-related asset that could be acquired by Chinese investors. South32, an Australian miner, also plans to sell off its Cerro Matoso ferronickel operation in Colombia in response to "structural changes in the nickel markets", it stated in its Q4 report for 2024. These structural changes were brought about by Chinese investments in Indonesia. China is now able to double down on the long-term bet it has made that nickel will still be a key metal in the energy transition due to the supply tsunami and price crash. The author is a columnist at
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Minister: Nuclear power projects supported by the US in Romania should not be included in election disputes
Romania's Energy Minister said that recent criticisms from members of the Trump administration regarding a cancelled elections should not affect Romanian nuclear projects supported by U.S. firms. The Romanian top court annulled the presidential elections in December on the suspicion of Russian interference, which Moscow denied. Elon Musk, a tech billionaire and vice president of the United States, singled out Romania in a broader criticism of Europe that points to possible policy shifts. Nuclearelectrica, a Romanian nuclear power company owned by the Romanian government, signed a 3.2-billion euro contract for main engineering to build two nuclear reactors of 700 MW each before 2032. The consortium included four companies including U.S. Fluor Corporation as well as Sargent & Lundy. Nuclearelectrica plans to build a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) by 2029, possibly for the first time ever in Europe. The technology will come from NuScale Power. The U.S. EXIM Bank, and International Development Finance Corporation committed funding for the project. When asked if the criticism from the United States of Romania would affect ongoing projects, Energy minister Sebastian Burduja replied: "Not in our view." He said: "These projects are involving large American companies, and we believe it's in the best interest of the United States to continue these projects regardless of any political context." Burduja announced that Romania will hold a second auction for 3.5 GW solar and wind projects, funded by a Contract for Difference (CFD) scheme supported by European Union funds. The tender is expected to take place in the first six months of this year. The Modernisation Fund is a program under the European Green Deal that supports 10 EU member states with lower incomes to upgrade their energy systems. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan; Luiza Ilie is the reporter)
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90 % of LME Aluminium inventories are controlled by a single party
According to LME data released on Monday, one party controls up to 90% (or half a billion dollars) of the available London Metal Exchange aluminium inventories. The exchange doesn't reveal the identities of those who hold large positions. However, investors and traders often keep inventories in order to take advantage of looming shortages, or to fulfill commitments made to customers. Alastair Muuro, senior strategist for base metals at broker Marex, said: "It would seem a reasonable assumption that the trader is looking to fill a short of metal. Munro said that this is reflected by a recent spate of new cancellations at LME warehouses - 32 175 metric tonnes in one week - where owners have given notice of their plans to remove the metal. LME positioning data (0#LMEWHL>) showed that between 80% to 90% of LME inventories for metals used in transport, packaging and building were held by a single party as of 20 February. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, which owns the LME, did not respond immediately to a comment request. The total LME stock of aluminium is 535,900 tonnes, but LME's position data is based on the inventory that has not been cancelled, i.e., those that are earmarked for shipment, which amounts to 208,400 tonnes. At the LME Cash Price, 90 percent of these stocks were worth $505 million. The benchmark LME three-month aluminium price reached its highest level in almost nine months, at $2 736 per ton on Friday. This was in response to a European Union decision to ban Russian primary aluminum imports. LME Stocks Overall Since May of last year, the price of aluminium has halved. This suggests a tighter market. The premium for cash LME Aluminium over the benchmark contract of three months is also reflected. On February 17,, the price of a ton reached $38. This was the highest closing price since May 2023. The premium (also known as backwardation) usually indicates a shortage of short-term inventory on the LME. LME data showed that between 80 and 90 percent of zinc inventories were held by a single party on February 20th, worth approximately $370 million. However, the LME zinc spread did not show any backwardation. The LME inventory of the main metal used for galvanizing iron has fallen Analysts have predicted a global surplus for this year. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Additional reporting by Polina Devtt, Pratima Dasai, and Eric Onstad)
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Meloni, an Italian company, has secured a pledge of investment worth 40 billion dollars from the UAE.
At a Rome bilateral summit, the United Arab Emirates announced that it plans to invest 40 billion dollars in Italy. The two countries did not give a timeframe. Since taking office as Italian Prime Minister in 2022 Giorgia Mello has sought to strengthen ties with Gulf nations, ignoring the concerns raised by political rivals over human rights. Italy under her leadership lifted the arms embargoes imposed on the UAE and Saudi Arabia by previous governments in connection with the Yemen war. Meloni received Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahya, President of the UAE, on Monday during his state visit to Rome. The pair also pledged to continue working towards a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership." In a joint press release, the two governments stated that "the UAE has committed $40 billion in investment in Italy in key sectors". The report added that "over 40 new agreements have been signed" in areas such as economic cooperation, investment, defence, nuclear, and space affairs. The names of the companies were not disclosed. Eni, the Italian energy giant, announced separately that it had signed a separate letter of intent with UAE-based companies MGX G42 for the development of data centres in Italy powered by natural gas plants using carbon capture technology. Eni has also signed an agreement with Masdar, the state-controlled renewables energy company in the UAE. Taqa Transmission will give Eni the status of preferred off-taker of renewable energy produced by Albania as part of a Italo-UAE and Albanian deal announced in January. Eni also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund ADQ for cooperation on the critical mineral supply chain. Meloni said at the Italy-United Arab Emirates Business Forum held in Rome that "it is a historical day, another landmark in our relationship." She added, "We chose to focus our partnership on strategic axes such as artificial intelligence (AI), data centres, research in space, renewable energy, and rare earths." The joint statement emphasized enhanced military and safety cooperation through "joint manufacturing, technology transfer and the development defense manufacturing facilities." The report also called for a closer collaboration with international partners, such as the United States, on the issue of ransomware and joint cybersecurity exercises. Meloni announced a strategic partnership strengthened with Saudi Arabia last month. The deal was accompanied by a series of business deals valued at around $10 billion. (Reporting and editing by Gavin Jones, Christina Fincher and Alvise Armellini)
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Rusal, a Russian company, cancels bond placings following EU sanctions
Market sources reported that Rusal, the Russian aluminium manufacturer, cancelled on Monday a placement of Yuan and Rouble bonds after the EU banned imports of primary aluminium from Russia in a new package of sanctions. The European Council included an aluminium ban as part of its 16th package of sanctions against Russia, but also introduced a quota to facilitate the transition. This quota is 275,000 tons per year for aluminum imports from Russia. In 2024, the EU imported approximately 344,000 tons (or aluminimum) from Russia. In 2024, the EU Commission reported that Russian aluminium only accounted for 6% of all metal imports, down from 16% in 2010. Rusal, a Hong Kong-listed company, planned to offer investors bonds in the amount of 500 million yuan ($68.97million) with settlements made in roubles as well as 10 billions roubles (113.74million) in roubles. Rusal declined to comment. It is the largest aluminum producer in the world outside of China. Rusal, a company that is not directly sanctioned by the West, has sought to diversify its sales to Asian markets. Rusal saw its share of revenues from Europe fall to 22% in the first half 2024. This is down from 31%. The 16th package is likely to have a significant impact on the finances of the company, according to Renaissance Capital debt analyst Vladimir Vasilenko. Bonds offer Russian companies more attractive rates of interest than bank loans. Bank loans have become unaffordable after the central banks raised its key rate to 21% in 2011.
Lower oil puts US in market to buy for tactical petroleum reserve, for now
A drop in crude oil prices has put the U.S. back in the market for replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after selling off a record quantity of crude from the stockpile in 2022.
A little more than a month ago the Department of Energy canceled the purchase of about 3 million barrels of oil for the SPR due to rates rising above what had actually been the federal government's. $ 79 per barrel target for West Texas Intermediate at which it. wished to purchase oil back.
On Tuesday the DOE said it is looking for approximately 3.3. million. barrel for October shipment, a relocation that might be canceled if. oil rates increase again. The DOE likewise a little. raised the rate at which it wishes to purchase the oil back.
Here are realities about the SPR and efforts to put oil back in.
WHAT IS THE SPR?
It is the world's biggest emergency oil stash. Former. President Gerald Ford created the SPR in 1975 after the Arab oil. embargo spiked gasoline rates and damaged the economy. Presidents have actually tapped the stockpile to calm oil markets throughout. war including oil producing nations or when cyclones hit oil. infrastructure along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The oil is held in. heavily-guarded underground caverns at 4 sites on the Texas. and Louisiana coasts.
HOW MUCH SPR OIL WAS SOLD IN 2022?
In 2022, the administration of President Joe Biden revealed. a sale of 180 million barrels of oil over 6 months from the. reserve, the largest ever SPR sale, in an effort to lower. fuel rates after Russia got into Ukraine. The DOE. conducted a sale of 38 million barrels in 2022 that had actually been. mandated by Congress.
WHAT RATE DOES THE U.S. WANT TO BUY SPR OIL?
The DOE stated on Tuesday it would buy oil back at up to. $ 79.99 a barrel, nearly one dollar above the previous target. rate.
Still, purchases might be restricted by the. administration's concern about doing anything to boost gasoline. prices ahead of the Nov. 5 election. Although the DOE appears. to be returning to the market in response to recent oil price. weakness, we would suggest that White House pump price. level of sensitivity has not abated, ClearView Energy said in a note to. clients.
The West Texas Intermediate oil cost had to do with $78.50 a. barrel on Tuesday, as weak U.S. tasks information and economic. unpredictability exceeded concerns about the Israel-Hamas war. broadening in the Middle East. However costs might rise rapidly as. peak U.S. summer season driving season nears.
The administration says it offered the 180 million barrels. at approximately about $95 a barrel.
JUST HOW MUCH IS COMING BACK?
The administration has so far redeemed about 32.3 million. barrels of domestically-produced petroleum given that the 180 million. barrel sale, it states. The DOE states it has likewise sped up the. return of almost 4 million barrels to the SPR from loans to oil. companies.
EXISTING SPR LEVEL
The reserve presently holds 367.2 million barrels, nearly. 60% of which is sour crude, or fairly high sulfur oil which. numerous U.S. refineries are engineered to procedure.
The 2022 sales sank the SPR to the most affordable level in about 40. years. That outraged some Republicans who implicated the Democratic. administration of leaving the U.S. with a thin supply buffer to. react to a future crisis. The most oil it ever held was almost. 727 million barrels in 2009.
The administration says it has a three-pronged method to. return oil to the reserve. That consists of buying back oil, the. return of oil loaned from the SPR to companies, and the. cancellation of congressionally mandated sales of 140 million. barrels through 2027. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers. had actually elected those sales to pay for federal government programs.
The U.S., which is producing oil at record volumes with more. increases anticipated this year, has more crude in the SPR than. needed as a member of the Paris-based International Energy. Firm, the West's energy guard dog. Under the contract, the. U.S. is needed to hold 90 days' worth of net petroleum. imports.
(source: Reuters)