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German wind-reliant power firms brace for annual 'dunkelflaute': Maguire

Wind facilities have generated more than a 3rd of Germany's regular monthly electricity output since October a record long stretch assisting the country's drive to cut use of nonrenewable fuel sources in the power sector and reduce national emissions.

However electrical energy firms are bracing for an annual drop in wind speeds that has actually historically slashed wind output in spring and summer from the peak generation levels seen throughout winter.

The German substance word dunkelflaute catches the phenomenon. Made from up dunkelheit, which suggests darkness, and windflaute, which indicates weak winds, the term explains periods when wind speeds drop and lead to little to no electricity generation.

Total drops in wind generation are unusual, but the German power system experiences sharp falls in wind output every year, needing energies to compensate with higher output from fossil fuels that raise emissions.

SHARP SWINGS

The drops in wind output following the winter months can be severe.

Throughout the first quarter given that 2019, wind power produced an average of 14.16 terawatt hours (TWh) of electrical power, or 28.4%. of Germany's total electrical power, information from energy think tank. Coal programs.

But wind generation has dropped to a typical 7.87 TWh. throughout the 2nd quarter, accounting for 19% of total. electrical energy output during those months.

Wind output has traditionally dropped even further throughout the. third quarter, to an average of less than 7 TWh from 2019. through 2023, when wind power's share of general electrical power. generation balanced only 16.3%.

Wind output has actually then tended to recuperate in the last quarter,. averaging 12.8 TWh or 27.5% of the electrical power total.

NO EASY REPAIR

The drops in absolute and relative wind output have actually come. despite a 13% growth in wind generation capability from 2018 to. 2022, and data that is commonly expected to show a sharp rise in. wind generation capacity in 2023.

More boosts in the total functional footprint of. Germany's wind farms - both onshore and offshore - are expected. each year moving forward. Together with solar capability gains,. extra wind capacity must enable renewables to represent. around 83% of Germany's total power generation by 2028,. according to the International Energy Firm (IEA).

The seasonal flows and lessens of wind speeds. across German wind farms look set to persist due to changes in. air pressure as temperatures swing from cold to hot to cold. once again throughout the year.

Cold air is denser than warm air and so produces higher. wind speeds for turbines during the winter season, while jet. streams bring warm air throughout summer season and lead to lower wind. speeds at turbine levels.

EMISSIONS AFFECT

The regular and noticable drops in Germany's wind. generation force power firms to deploy varying amounts of. power from other sources to balance system requirements.

Output from solar websites peaks throughout the middle of the year,. enabling utilities to offset some of the minimized wind. generation with increased solar output. That enables utilities to. sustain reasonably high levels of clean power output even when. wind production dies down.

Power companies need to likewise sustain output from natural gas. and coal-fired plants year-round, particularly at night when solar. production stops.

The resulting fossil-based output indicates German energies. give off an average of 15 million metric tons of carbon dioxide a. month during the 2nd and third quarters of the year from. power generation, Coal information programs.

That emissions load is below approximately 19 million. tons a month over the rest of the year, however would be greater were. it not for the reality that Germany has a fairly low. penetration of air conditioning system, which hog electrical power and tend. to be used extensively throughout the warmest periods of the year.

As more of Germany's heating and cooling systems. switch from gas-fired boilers to electricity-based heatpump,. the country's total electricity usage patterns are most likely to. shift and potentially peak throughout summer season due to high air. conditioning need.

That in turn would position even higher strain on Germany's. power system during spells of weak wind speeds, and imply even. greater release of nonrenewable fuel sources during any future. dunkelflautes.

<< The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>

(source: Reuters)