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How an attack on Ukraine's substations for nuclear power could lead to a blackout

Russia intensified its attacks against Ukraine's energy systems, which rely almost exclusively on electricity generated by nuclear power stations and have already lost half their generating capacity.

What do nuclear power plants mean for Ukraine? According to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Russia plans to strike substations which?supply consumers with nuclear energy? and plunge the country into complete blackout.

Ukraine operates three nuclear plants with a combined capacity of 7.7 gigawatts. The largest nuclear power plant in Europe, Zaporizhzhia, is currently occupied by Russia.

Currently, the country is experiencing a 10 gigawatt deficit, which can only be partially offset by imports. This means that authorities are forced to implement rolling blackouts on a large scale, leaving entire regions without electricity for several hours. A source in the industry, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic, stated that nuclear power now provides up to 80% the electricity consumed by Ukraine. The country has no other generation capacity left intact.

The source from the industry said that the removal of nuclear power plants would cause the cities' infrastructure collapse. Zelenskiy?previously stated that domestic production and imports only cover about 60% of the demand.

At this week's World Economic Forum, in Davos, Economy Minister Oleksiy Sbolev stated that Russian shelling in Ukraine since October 2025 had?damaged 8 gigawatts in generating capacity including thermal and hydroelectric plants.

SUBSTATIONS ARE KEY Element OF A POWER SYSTEM

Nuclear power units would be useless without substations capable of delivering electricity generated to high-voltage networks and then, via smaller substations to consumers. Oleksandr Kharchenko, director at the independent Energy Research Centre of Kyiv said that ten key substations carried more than half the electricity used by Ukraine.

Some substations are directly adjacent to nuclear power plants while others are hundreds or dozens of kilometers (miles).

ARE THE SUBSTATIONS ALREADY UNDER ATTACK? Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that the latest Russian missile salvos have already "affected" key Ukrainian power stations. Kharchenko stated that there have been no attacks on nuclear power plant substations, but Russia has struck substations far away from power units 60 times during the nearly four-year war.

Only auxiliary equipment was damaged by the attacks, which targeted rare, powerful transformers. Protective measures were put in place to protect them.

Kharchenko stated that it usually takes just a few days to fix such damages and return the substation back to service.

Despite this, the source from the industry said that nuclear power plants were forced to reduce their output many times because of such attacks.

DANGERS OF ATTAKING SUBSTATIONS NEAR NUCLEAR PLANT Analysts and energy experts say that the consequences of a strike on substations near nuclear reactors is unpredictable, as even if the explosion did not damage the reactor itself, it could damage the piping system containing radioactive water as well as other nuclear?equipment.

Substations can be located only a few hundred meters (yards), and if they are hit, the consequences could be unpredictable.

A source in the industry noted that the buildings of the reactors were made of thick concrete, and therefore would not be penetrated easily by the drone's warhead. However, a fire may damage other objects at the power station. The source also said that they could not withstand an attack by a ballistic rocket.

In 1986, Ukraine had already suffered a nuclear catastrophe when a power unit of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant exploded. This explosion rendered tens and thousands of acres of land uninhabitable, just 80 kilometers (50 miles), from Kyiv.

Kharchenko stated that Russian missiles targeting substations may simply damage the reactor, or other important equipment. This includes kilometres worth of pipelines transporting radioactive water or turbine equipment at nuclear power plants. (Reporting and editing by Daniel Flynn, Mark Heinrich, and Pavel Polityuk)

(source: Reuters)