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REFILE - Stocks fall with S&P500 in correction; bonds are in demand amid tariff anxiety (March 13).
Investors fled to safer assets on Thursday, as global trade tensions were feared to increase inflation and slow the growth of the economy after U.S. president Donald Trump's recent tariff threats. The benchmark S&P 500 closed Thursday for the first time more than 10% lower than its previous record close, which was achieved on February 19, Trump has threatened to impose a 200% tariff on European beverages if the EU doesn't remove the whiskey surcharges from the United States. Trump's increased tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum took effect Wednesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Labor Department, released data on Thursday that showed U.S. Producer prices (PPI), which were expected to rise faster than consumer prices (CPI), actually remained unchanged in February. Last month's trends were not enough to reassure investors, who had been preparing for the potential impact of trade conflicts on future inflation and economic growth. Tim Ghriskey is a senior portfolio strategist with Ingalls & Snyder, New York. He said that if it weren't for the ongoing trade war, the market would have been up strongly on the inflation data. "Traders have their attention on the trade conflict." Ghriskey said, "It appears that the administration (in the U.S.) is very aggressive. They seem to be committed to the long-term and personalities are unlikely to change their minds in the near future." Wall Street saw the S&P500 fall 77.78 or 1.39% to 5,521.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also appeared to be approaching a confirmation of a correction, as it ended Thursday at 40,813.57, down 537.36, or 1.30%. This was roughly 9.4% lower than its latest record-breaking closing high. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 345.44, or 1.96% to 17,303.01. After confirming the correction on March 6, the tech-heavy index fell more than 14% compared to its recent record. According to Yardeni Research, stock market corrections have been fairly common. The S&P 500 has experienced a correction at least 56 times since 1929. Data showed that only 22 of these corrections morphed to bear markets. A bear market is defined as a decline of at least 20% from the most recent highs. MSCI's index of global stocks fell 9.33 points or 1.12% to 821.52 in Thursday. This is more than 7% lower than its latest record high, after hitting his lowest point since September. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed earlier down 0.15%, after gaining 0.81% the previous session. The U.S. S&P 500 is down over 6% year to date, but European stocks are doing better thanks to government plans for defense spending and a possible Ukraine peace agreement. The STOXX Index is up 6.5% for the year-to-date despite recent drops. U.S. Treasury Yields fell on Friday as the equity selloff increased demand for U.S. Government debt. The escalating Trade Wars between the United States, and its trading partners threatens to deter growth and increase inflation. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes dropped 4.6 basis point to 4.27% from 4.316% at late Wednesday, while the 30-year bond rate fell 4.1 basis to 4.59%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 4 basis points, to 3.955% from 3.995% at late Wednesday. The U.S. Dollar was mixed in terms of currencies. It weakened against the safe-haven Japanese yen, but gained on the Euro and Canadian dollar. The dollar fell 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 147.68. The euro fell 0.33% to $1.085, while the Canadian dollar declined 0.45% against the greenback. Against the Swiss Franc the dollar gained 0.14%. Oil prices fell after a rally on Wednesday, when traders took into account macroeconomic concerns as well as demand and supply expectations. U.S. crude oil settled at $66.55 per barrel down $1.13 or 1.67% and Brent settled at $69,88 per barrel down 1.51% or $0.07 for the day. Gold prices soared to record levels on Thursday and were just a few cents away from the $3,000 mark per ounce. The momentum was driven by increased tariff uncertainty as well as bets placed on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy being eased. Spot gold increased by 1.73%, to $2982.84 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased by 1.51% to $2.983.50 per ounce.
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Asia Gold Discounts in India Hit 8-Month High as Record Prices Weigh on Demand
The gold discounts in India reached their highest level in almost eight months this week, due to the record-high prices and customers staying away from other major hubs. Jewelers are reporting fewer sales. The rising price of bullion has caused a significant drop in demand. On Thursday, the domestic gold price reached a new record of 87.886 rupees for 10 grams. This week, Indian dealers offered a discount Up to $39 per ounce, including import duties of 6% and sales taxes of 3%, compared to a discount from $10 to $21 the previous week. A Mumbai-based dealer from a bullion import bank said, "Jewelers don't want to build high-cost inventories at the end the financial year as they are busy with closing accounts." India's fiscal year runs from April to March 31. India's gold exports will drop by 85% from the previous year in February, and reach their lowest level in 20 years. The demand has been dampened due to record high bullion prices. China, which is the largest gold consumer in the world, traded gold at a discount ranging from $1 to $18 over spot prices. Hong Kong dealers charged premiums from $1 to $2 per ounce. . Standard Chartered analyst Suki cooper said in a report that "China's Market is alternating between a discount or a premium." The physical market has given gold a weaker foundation... China's stock markets have slowed down amid high prices highlighting the macro-drivers." Bullion was traded in Japan A trader stated that a discount of 3 dollars and a premium $0.5 is the difference between these two prices. A Japanese trader said, "The market is choppy and volatile because of Trump's policies. It seems investors are waiting for the trend to be clear." A trader in Singapore said that gold was traded at a discount of $0.50 to a premium of $3.
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BMW's profits slump as China sales and brake problems plague earnings
BMW's 2024 net profit fell by more than a third to 7,68 billion euros, in line with the market expectation, due to weak sales in China, Germany, and delivery delays caused by brake problems. It said that the premium carmaker expected its profit margins for cars to reach 5-7% by 2025. This is at best a small increase over last year's 6,3%. The company was anticipating intensifying wars in trade and continued tough competition in China. The carmaker's forecast includes all tariffs that were imposed on March 12th, including increased tariffs for U.S. Steel and Aluminium imports, and a 25% duty placed on certain vehicles imported from Mexico, such as BMWs. The group has proposed a payout ratio of 36.7% - one of the highest ever in its history - consisting of a 4.32 euro dividend per preferred share by 2024. This is still lower than the 6.02 euro dividend paid for the previous fiscal year. Cut its 2024 Outlook The drop in China sales, and the problems with Continental brakes that affect 1.5 million vehicles has caused the rate to fall from 8-10%. The carmaker's warnings were confirmed by the drop in net profit of 41% for the fourth quarter. In January, Earnings would be affected by inflation and higher fixed costs due to unwinding of inventory in the last three months.
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Gold reaches record levels as tariffs threaten to raise the price of gold.
Asia shares rose Friday, and global markets tried to rebound after a brutal sale earlier in the week. Gold reached a new record as investors became nervous due to the latest escalation in global trade tensions. After Senator Chuck Schumer announced that he would vote for a Republican funding bill to avoid a government shutdown, he signaled his party's support. U.S. Stock Futures were a strong response. Nasdaq futures gained more than 1% in one instance and S&P futures advanced by 0.6%. FTSE Futures also gained 0.3%. DAX futures rose 0.6%. Alvin Tan is the head of Asia FX Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. He said that this news, for today at least, was positive for the market sentiment. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which includes Japan, traded 0.95% higher. However, it is still on course to lose 1.5% this week as global trade conflicts have weakened global stock markets. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that he will impose a 200% tariff on imports of European wines and spirits if the EU does not remove the retaliatory charges on American whiskeys and other products which come into effect in the next month. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Asia ex-Japan macro research at Mizuho. Recent developments have sparked the steep sell-offs on Wall Street, and confirmed that the S&P 500 is in a correction. This comes just one week after Nasdaq also confirmed this. "I don't think Trump 2.0 is the same as Trump 1.0. Michael Strobaek is the global chief investment officer of Lombard Odier. He said that this time the president appears to be willing to let U.S. stocks and the economy suffer as he implements his "America first" goals. Gold, a safe-haven asset, has benefited from the trade war. The yellow metal hit a record of $2,993.80 per ounce last Friday. The yellow metal was expected to rise 2.6% this week. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.8%. Chinese stocks rose on Friday after Hohhot, a northern Chinese city, announced large cash rewards for boosting birth rates. Investors also anticipated a press conference by officials of Beijing's top planning office and other agencies next week to discuss additional measures for boosting domestic consumption. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong jumped by 2.4% while China's blue-chip index, the CSI300, grew by 2.3%. Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%. Dollar Trouble The dollar gained some ground on Friday thanks to the safe-haven flows. However, it was still not far from recent lows due to fears of an imminent U.S. economic recession and growing trade tensions. The Euro last traded at $1.08465, down 0.04%, while the Pound fell 0.03% to $1.9475. The German fiscal reset plan, which includes a 500-billion-euro fund for infrastructure as well as sweeping changes in borrowing rules and growth boosters to boost military spending and revive Europe's biggest economy has given the euro additional support. The German lower house, which is leaving office in March, will vote on these measures before forming a new Parliament on March 25, Investors will be waiting for further information on the rate outlook, amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies on trade and the impact they have on U.S. inflation and growth. "Our assessment shows that the rate trend is constant, and will continue to be lower." Varathan from Mizuho said that it's a matter of timing. "I believe that the tariffs are only going to be an inconvenience and not a hindrance to the Fed's cuts because, even if prices increase, it will still result in a negative shock of demand, which makes people worse off. Dollar was up by 0.5% last week against the yen, at 148.50. However, it was expected to suffer a small loss for the week against the Japanese currency due to the increasing bets on more Bank of Japan rate hikes. Next week, the BOJ will also meet. Oil prices rose after falling the previous session. Brent futures increased by 0.67%, to $70.35 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 0.75% per barrel to $67.05.
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Mayor says that Russia shot down four drones heading for Moscow after Kyiv attacked oil complex
Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, said that Russian air defences had repelled a drone attack flying towards Moscow. No injuries were reported in either the capital, or an earlier attack against an oil complex located in one region in southern Russia. Sobyanin, on his Telegram official channel, said that emergency services were working on the site of the debris fall. Sobyanin didn't mention Ukraine. But Kyiv has launched an ongoing series of drone attacks against Russia, since President Vladimir Putin dispatched tens-of-thousands of troops to Ukraine over three years ago. Most of these attacks have targeted energy and other infrastructure. Veniamin Kodratiev said that an attack by Ukrainians had ignited a fuel tank at the Tuapse Oil Complex on the Black Sea shores. He said that no one was injured in the attack. Kondratiev, who did not specify whether the site was hit by a missile or drone, said that 121 firefighters battled to extinguish the fires. Export-oriented Tuapse Refinery produces high-sulfur diesel, naphtha and vacuum gasoil. It has a capacity of 240.000 barrels per day. Andrei Vorobyov said that three drones headed for Moscow were brought down in his area. He said debris had fallen onto a building site and an under-construction residential building. The RIA news agency, citing emergency services, reported that one of the drones hit the roof a multi-storey building in west Moscow. The TASS agency reported that debris also fell on a house outside of Moscow. Reporting by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Tom Hogue and Andrew Osborn)
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Iran's ruling class caught between Trump's repression and an economy in trouble
Iran's clerical leadership may find that engaging the "Great Satan" in order to negotiate a nuclear agreement and ease crippling economic sanctions is the lesser evil. Four Iranian officials have said that despite its deep mistrust for the United States and in particular President Donald Trump, Tehran is growing increasingly worried about public anger at economic hardships escalating into massive protests. People said that despite the defiant and unyielding rhetoric of Iran's clerical leadership in public, there was a pragmatic desire within Tehran's power corridors to strike a bargain with Washington. Tehran's fears were exacerbated when Trump revived his "maximum-pressure" campaign from his first term, which aimed to reduce Iran's oil sales to zero by imposing more sanctions. This would bring Iran's fragile economy to its knees. Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has repeatedly emphasized the severity of its economic situation, saying that it was more difficult than the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. He also pointed this month at the latest round U.S. sanction targeting oil tankers transporting Iranian oil. According to one of the Iranian officials, leaders are concerned that cutting off diplomatic avenues could further fuel discontent in Iran against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is because he is the final decision maker for the Islamic Republic. Alex Vatanka is the director of the Middle East Institute's Iran Program in Washington. He said that there was no doubt whatsoever that the man, who has been the supreme leader since 1989, and his foreign policies preferences are the most responsible for the current state of affairs. Iran's poor economy prompted Khamenei, who was then president of Iran, to back the nuclear deal struck in 2015 with major powers. This led to the lifting of Western sanctions as well as an improvement in economic circumstances. Then-President Trump’s renewed attack on Iran after he withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018 squeezed life standards again. The situation is getting worse every day. I cannot afford to pay rent, bills or clothes for my kids," Alireza Yousefi said, 42, an Isfahan teacher. "Now, even more sanctions make it impossible to survive." The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not reply to a comment request. "ON EQUAL TERMS" Trump, while increasing the pressure on Iran through new sanctions and military threats, also opened the doors to negotiations when he sent a letter to Khamenei suggesting nuclear talks. Khamenei rejected the offer Wednesday, repeatedly saying that Washington had made excessive demands and that Tehran wouldn't be pushed into negotiations. In an interview published Thursday, Abbas Araqchi, Iran's top diplomatic official said: "If we negotiate while the other party is exerting maximum pressure on us, we will be in a weaker position and achieve nothing." He said that "the other side must be convinced of the ineffectiveness of the pressure policy - then we can sit down at the table and negotiate on equal terms." A senior Iranian official stated that there was no other option but to reach a deal, and it was possible. However, the road ahead was bumpy, given Iran's mistrust of Trump following his abandonment of the 2015 agreement. Iran's economic collapse has been largely prevented by China, its main oil buyer and one of the few countries still trading with Tehran in spite of sanctions. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil exports dropped after Trump abandoned the nuclear deal, but recovered in recent years. They are expected to generate more than $50 billion of revenue between 2022 and 2023, as Iran finds ways to avoid sanctions. But uncertainty still looms about the future of exports, as Trump's policy of maximum pressure aims to choke off Iran's crude oil sales by imposing multiple rounds of sanctions against tankers and other entities involved in trade. PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS Iran's rulers also face a series of crises: energy and water shortages; a collapsing dollar; military setbacks for regional allies, and growing fear of an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. All of these are exacerbated by Trump's hard stance. Lack of infrastructure investment, excessive consumption driven by subsidies and declining natural gas production, as well as inefficient irrigation are all contributing to the energy and water sector's problems. This leads to blackouts, and water shortages. According to foreign exchange websites and officials, the Iranian rial's value has dropped by more than 90 percent against the dollar ever since sanctions were reinstated in 2018. State media reported that Iranians, worried about Trump's harsh approach, have bought dollars, other hard currency, gold, or cryptocurrency, indicating further weakness in the rial. State media reported that the price of rice had risen 200% in the past year. Media reports indicate that housing and utility costs in Tehran and other major cities have risen sharply in recent months. They climbed roughly 60%, mainly due to the steep decline of the rial and the rising cost of raw materials. Some Iranian experts claim that the official inflation rate is over 50%, but it hovers at around 40%. The Statistical Center of Iran has reported a dramatic rise in food costs. In January, the prices of a third of the most essential commodities increased by 40%. They were now more than twice as high as they had been in the previous month. According to the Tasnim News Agency, Ebrahim Sadeghifar, head of Iran's Institute of Labor and Social Welfare (IILSW), 22%-27% of Iranians are now living below the poverty level. Last week, Iran's Jomhuri-ye Eslami daily reported that the poverty rate was around 50%. I can't pay the rent on my carpet shop, or my employees' wages. No one can afford to buy carpets. "If this situation continues, I'll have to layoff my staff," Morteza (39), said over the phone, from Tehran's Grand Bazaar. He gave only his first name. How can they hope to resolve the economic crisis without talking to Trump? Talk to him, and you will reach an agreement. "You cannot afford to be proud on an empty stomach." NUCLEAR RED LINE According to Iranian state media, at least 216 protests took place in Iran during February. These included retirees and workers, as well as students, health professionals, merchants, and healthcare professionals. According to reports, the protests were mainly focused on economic hardships such as low wages and unpaid salaries for months. Officials fear that a decline in living standards, despite the small scale of most protests, could explode. One of the four officials who was close to the government said, "The country is a powder-keg and any further economic strains could ignite it." The officials stated that Iran's ruling class is aware of the possibility of a return of unrest, similar to protests from 2022-2023 over the death of Mahsa Amin in custody or nationwide protests of 2019 over the rise in fuel prices. Senior Iranian officials said that there were several high-level discussions to discuss the potential of new mass demonstrations and possible measures to prevent them. Iranian officials, however, said that despite concerns about possible unrest, Tehran would only go so far with any discussions with Trump. They stressed that "excessive requests" such as the dismantling of Iran's nuclear program or conventional missile capability were not on the table. The senior official stated that "yes, there is concern about increased economic pressure and there are concerns regarding the nation's anger growing, but we cannot give up our right to produce nuclear energy just because Trump wants it." Ali Vaez is the Iran project director for International Crisis Group. He said that Iran's leaders believed that negotiations with Trump would be a sign of weakness and could lead to more pressure rather than less. He said: "Ayatollah Khmenei appears to believe that surrendering is the only thing more dangerous than sanctions." (Reporting, Writing and Editing by Parisa Hafezi)
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Olympic athletes make climate pleas to IOC Presidential candidates
More than 400 Olympians representing nearly 90 nations around the globe have signed a petition urging the winner of the International Olympic Committee's presidential election next week to make climate change their number one priority. Signatories of an open letter calling on the IOC to act on climate change include Australia's most decorated Olympian Emma McKeon and Cyrille Tchatchet II - a weightlifter, who represented the refugee squad at the Tokyo Olympics 2021. The letter stated: "To the incoming president, we ask that during the next years and throughout your presidency you place one issue above all else: the care of the planet." "Rising temperatures are disrupting competition schedules and endangering iconic venues, as well as the health of fans and athletes. Winter Games are getting harder to organize as snow and ice conditions decrease each year. Seven candidates will compete to succeed Thomas Bach as IOC president at a ballot held by IOC members in Costa Navarino (Greece) on 20 March. The Olympians demanded a meeting with the winning candidate immediately after the elections to discuss environmental issues, and stated that the IOC should strengthen its existing commitments regarding the reduction of carbon emissions. The IOC should also advocate "broader environmental actions", promote sustainable practices in cities hosting the Olympics and "set standards" for sponsorship deals with polluting companies. Hannah Mills, a British Olympian, was among the British Olympians to initiate the letter. She said that the recent wildfires, which occurred in Los Angeles, where the Summer Olympics of 2028 will be held, showed how climate change is a threat. The IOC Sustainability Ambassador, a two-time Olympic champion and former Olympic athlete, said: "I don't think we've seen so many athletes around the world speaking with one voice." The terrible LA wildfires could not have been more clear: it is time to chart a course towards a bright, safe future. "The Olympics have held and fulfilled so many dreams over its history, but I cannot dream of a bigger future than one in which my kids can thrive." IOC's "reduce compensate influence" commitment to climate action includes a reduction of 50% in carbon emissions until 2030. This will be offset by compensating for more than 100% residual emissions. It also encourages fans and stakeholders to take action against climate change. The favourites for Bach's successor are World Athletics chief Sebastian Coe and IOC Vice President Juan Antonio Samaranch, as well as Kirsty Coventry who is Zimbabwean Sports Minister. The list includes David Lappartient as the head of the International Cycling Federation, Prince Feisal al Hussein from Jordan, Morinari Watanabe, the head of the International Gymnastics Federation and Johan Eliasch who is the International Ski Federation's president. Prince Feisal welcomed the "powerful messages" from Olympians all over the world, while Coe, a vocal advocate of the climate change impact on athletics and athlete advocacy, said that he was delighted to meet with the athletes to "share ideas, initiatives, and experiences". (Reporting and editing by Peter Rutherford, Iain Axon, London)
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Sources say that Russia is increasingly relying on cryptocurrency for its oil trade.
Four sources who have direct knowledge of this matter claim that Russia uses cryptocurrencies to avoid Western sanctions in its oil trading with China and India. Although Russia has publicly endorsed the use of digital currencies and passed a bill last summer to allow them in international trade, the use of these currencies in the oil trade in the country has never been reported. Sources said that some Russian oil companies use bitcoin, ether, and stablecoins like Tether to convert Chinese yuan, Indian rupees, and other currencies into Russian roubles. They added that this is only a small, but growing, part of Russia's total oil trade which, according to the International Energy Agency, was valued at $192 billion in 2017. Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, all sources refused to be named. Cryptocurrencies are already helping countries like Iran and Venezuela, which have been subject to U.S. sanctions, keep their economies going without having to use the dollar as the currency of choice for global oil transactions. Russia's move follows Venezuela's use of digital currencies in crude and fuel imports after Washington reimposed its sanctions. A fifth source said that Russia has set up several systems, and USDT (Tether), is only one of them. The researcher, who works for an investigation firm that tracks the use cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions, asked not be identified because of non-disclosure agreements. The Russian central banking did not reply to a comment request. Last year, it said that sanctions-related delays in payments had become a major problem for the Russian economy. Donald Trump wants to improve the relationship with Russia while he pushes to end the war in Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether sanctions will be removed. Reports said that the White House had been drafting options to ease sanctions, but Trump stated on March 7 that more sanctions against Russia are being seriously considered. One of the sources stated that crypto would continue to be used for Russian oil trading even if the sanctions were lifted and the dollar could be used again. They said that it is a useful tool and makes operations run faster. Two sources familiar with the transactions described how a Chinese buyer who purchases Russian oil pays the trading company that acts as the middleman yuan to an offshore account. They said that the middleman converts it into crypto, transfers it to another bank account, and then sends it to a third Russian account to be converted to roubles. According to a source familiar with the operations of the Russian oil trader, the crypto transactions for his sales to China are in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars each month. Analysts said that traditional currencies still make up the majority of Russia's oil transaction, but they also suggested other alternatives, such as the UAE dirham. Garantex, a Russian crypto exchange, has been sanctioned by the United States in 2022, and by the European Union just last month. Last week, the platform suspended its services after Tether banned digital wallets from its platform. According to a source who advises the Kremlin, cryptocurrency is one way of avoiding payment problems. The Royal United Services Institute in the UK and the Centre for Information Resilience also support this view. Reporting by Anna Hirtenstein, Aizhu chen, editing by Alex Lawler and Dmitry Zhdannikov, Kirby Donovan.
Edison Intl CEO: Next inspections of Eaton Fire are expected to take place next week
Edison International CEO Pedro Pizarro said at the CERAWeek Conference in Houston that Southern California Edison will start its first physical inspections to examine certain power equipment for possible links with the Eaton Fire, which started in Los Angeles in early 2014.
On Jan. 7, several fires broke out in Los Angeles, claiming dozens lives and destroying tens of thousands of homes. This is expected to be one of the most costly natural disasters in U.S. History.
Multiple lawsuits claim that SCE power towers and lines in the hills near the Altadena community started the Eaton Fire. Los Angeles County, the City of Pasadena and other entities are suing SCE.
SCE, the largest electric utility of Southern California that provides power to approximately 15 million people, will begin sending workers to the towers in the Altadena area on Monday. There will be other inspections including drones.
Separately, but parallel, government investigators, attorneys representing fire victims, and SCE are investigating the cause of Eaton Fire.
SCE's financial fate will be determined by the official cause of fire and whether or not negligence was involved.
Edison International has said that a California-established Wildfire Fund will protect its balance sheet, which Pizarro reiterated on Thursday. (Reporting and editing by Laila Gregorio; reporting by Laila kearney)
(source: Reuters)