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Oil prices rise, while stocks fall as Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices rose by 5% Monday, and stocks dropped as 'Iran escalated their military campaign. Drones were used to strike a 'UAE oil port and a South Korean vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures gained $6.43 or 5.9% to $114.60 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), rose 4% to $100.91. The move came after U.S. president Donald Trump announced over the weekend that U.S. Navy will force the strait to open.

Since two months, the Strait of Hormuz has been seriously disrupted. It is through this strait that a fifth of all oil and gas transported by sea in the world normally passes. The attacks on Monday reinforced fears that a military effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could spark a wider confrontation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.03%. The S&P 500 was 0.53% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.41%.

The longer oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, the less fiscal stimulus the tax cuts that were passed in 2025 will be.

MSCI's global index outside Japan fell as well, reversing gains made earlier after South Korean tech stocks closed over 5 percent higher. German automakers in Europe weighed on regional equity after Trump announced on Friday that he would increase tariffs on European cars and trucks.

The STOXX 600 pan-European index dropped by 0.99%. The benchmark yield for the eurozone bloc, Germany's 10-year bonds, increased 5 basis points to 3,08%. Bond yields are inversely related to prices. London's markets were closed due to a public holiday.

CENTRAL BANKS TURN HAWKISH AFTER OIL FANS INFLATION FEARS

Oil-driven inflation has pushed bond rates higher and complicated global monetary policy outlook.

The markets no longer expect that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in this year and they have already begun to price in rate increases from the European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England. Barclays joined other brokerages on Monday in predicting that the Fed won't ease policy this year. The Friday April payrolls report may further alter expectations.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year bonds rose 7.6 basis point to 4.454%.

FOREX TRADERS ARE KEPT ON THE EDGE BY YEN VOLATILITY

The currency markets are also a bit uneasy, and traders are 'closely monitoring for signs of Japanese intervention in order to support the yen.

In Asian trading, the dollar plunged against the yen before turning around. The Japanese yen last fell 0.11% against the greenback, closing at 157.25 dollars. Analysts think Tokyo could have intervened in the last week for a total of?35 billion dollars.

Roberto Cobo Garcia is the head of BBVA's G10 FX Strategy. He said that intervention was justified, due to the inflationary effect of a weaker yen through import prices. The U.S. government also seems comfortable with this action.

The euro dropped 0.3% to 1.1685 while sterling fell 0.34% to 1.003526.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.35%, reaching 98.50.

On the commodity markets, gold dropped 2.22% to $4,511.66 an ounce.

(source: Reuters)