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Stocks fall, US 2-year yield drops after Fed's Williams cools down rate hike bets
Investors reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month after comments made by Fed Bank of New York president John Williams. Major stock indexes also eased, as yields for longer-dated bonds remained near multi-decade-highs. Williams' comments and the optimism over AI lab Anthropic’s plan to go public tempered the stock market's weakness. Williams stated that he does not see "urgency" in further action following the US central bank's rate hike earlier this month. Based on the pricing of Fed Funds futures contracts traders now expect a 50% chance of a quarter-point increase at the Fed's next meeting in October. This is down from 70% earlier in day. Williams, who believes that a single rate hike will occur by the end of the year is what has influenced the price of short-term rate contracts. Investors remained concerned about the rate outlook, even though the 30-year US Treasury Bond had earlier reached its highest level since 2002. The'monthly US jobs data is also due this week. Investors are getting ready for the PCE tomorrow. "If we see an acceleration in inflation, then I believe that this will cement a rate increase in October," said Peter Cardillo. Chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, New York. Bond yields are rising due to concerns about inflation and higher oil prices. Fed increased interest rates this month, the first time they have done so since 2023, to combat inflation. Investors digested other Fed officials' comments?on Tuesday. Chicago Fed President Austan G. Goolsbee said that allowing the inflation to remain above the Fed target for five-and-a half years was "playing with Fire." He noted that the Fed might need to respond to an supply shock which has long lasting effects. Data showed that US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in over 12 years in September. Households expect both the business environment and the labor market will weaken in the next six-month period. The yield on the 2-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Fed was down 3.51 basis point to 4.889% last week, after previously touching 4.9596% - its highest level since May 2024. The yield on US benchmark 10-year notes rose 1.32 basis points to 5.255% after previously reaching 5.2932%. This was its highest level since June 2007. After reaching its highest level since the morning of June 2002, the 30-year bond rate rose by 3 basis points to 5,592%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped?131.59, or 0.26 percent, to 51349.92. The S&P 500 declined 12.85 points or 0.17% to 7,670.84 while the Nasdaq Composite lost 22.84 points or 0.08% to 26,797.54. Anthropic’s IPO prospectus revealed that the AI lab had grown rapidly in the past year, but also suffered larger losses. The company aims to reach a valuation of $2 trillion or more, which could set a new benchmark for Wall Street's assessment of AI leaders. MSCI's global index of stocks fell by 3.41 points or 0.30% to 1,135.86. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.09%. The yields on French 10-year debt were near their 2008 highs of 4.74%, and they were expected to rise the most in a single month since 2022. The sovereign yield is a key anchor for the global markets. It's a price reference for riskier stocks, and it's a benchmark when it comes to mortgages and corporate borrowing. Rates that are higher put pressure on the budgets of government, corporations and households. OIL FALLS Investors focused on signs that crude exports to the Middle East were recovering. Oil prices have risen despite the fact that hopes of a US-Iran deal on the horizon are fading. US President Donald Trump has said that he offered Iran nothing in order to end the conflict. He rejected media reports citing?US officials who claimed he would be willing to ease sanctions or?release funds frozen for "concrete steps" regarding Iran's nuke program. US crude futures declined $3.22, to settle at $89.38 per barrel. Brent futures fell by $2.69, to settle at $100.59. The euro rose 0.01% to $1.1341 in the last currency update. The dollar gained 0.03% against the Japanese yen to reach 157.32. The Australian dollar was almost flat against the greenback, at $0.6984. Australia's central banks raised rates earlier to the highest level in 15 years. Spot gold increased 1.46%, to $4174.26 per ounce.
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Talen Energy names Terry Nutt as CEO and expands its share repurchase programs through 2028
Talen Energy announced on Tuesday that it has named President Terry Nutt its new chief executive officer. This will take effect January 1, and the company also expanded its share repurchase authority through 2028. Nutt succeeds Mac McFarland who will continue to serve as CEO, a member of the board and senior advisor until his retirement in march 2027. Talen is undergoing a leadership transition as it aims to capitalize on the growing demand for electricity from data centers and artificial intelligence, while also returning cash to its shareholders via a large share repurchase program. Nutt will be joining the board as soon as he takes over the role of CEO. He has been 'Talen’s president' since December and was previously the chief financial officer. The independent power producer increased its remaining capacity in its share repurchase programs to $3 billion by December 31, 2028 and entered into $1.5 Billion of accelerated share purchase agreements. By the end of 2027, it is expected that Talen will have repurchased more than 10% its outstanding shares. The company stated that it would 'primarily' fund the accelerated repurchases by'monetizing future capacity revenues from PJM, which is the largest US power grid operator. Talen predicted about $4 billion of adjusted free cash flow in the second half 2026 to the end 2028.
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First visit by the UAE Vice President to Saudi Arabia since the rift
Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, UAE Vice President, visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. He met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom's Defence Minister. This was the first official visit by a senior UAE official to the kingdom since the Gulf Powers fell into a deep split last year. Saudi Arabia's Defence Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman invited the Saudi ambassador to visit the Kingdom. Riyadh is under increasing pressure by the Iran-backed Houthis who have been firing missiles and drones for weeks at the kingdom. Saudi Arabia 'has been trying to rally international assistance to face the Houthis. But it wasn't immediately clear if this request extended to UAE. Saudi Arabia was once the main regional partner of the United Arab Emirates in the war against Houthis. According to a Saudi Defence Ministry post on X, Sheikh Mansour discussed with Prince Khalid topics of mutual interest and ways to improve cooperation and coordination between both countries. In a separate meeting on Tuesday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Sheikh Mansour reviewed "fraternal relationships" between the countries and the developments in the area, according to the Saudi state media agency. In?December, the UAE and Saudi Arabia brought their years-long differences over everything from geopolitics to energy policy to light when an advance by a UAE backed southern Yemeni rebel group brought them close to Saudi border. Saudi Arabia has condemned the UAE's involvement in Yemen and conducted an airstrike against a UAE-linked weapon shipment at Mukalla port. The UAE announced that it had withdrawn its entire force from Yemen, but tensions remain. Yemen has been in a 12-year civil war ever since the Houthis took over the capital Sanaa and prompted a Saudi-led intervention.
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After soaking Baja California Sur, Hurricane Polo hits Sonora in northwest Mexico
Hurricane 'Polo' made its second landfall in Mexico on the northwestern Pacific Coast on Tuesday, after flooding the southern Baja California Peninsula. Landfall occurred near the port of Guaymas, on the Sea of Cortez. Sonora State. Emergency evacuations were ordered by state authorities in several southern municipalities, including Guaymas and Empalme. Officials reported that 543 people were huddled in shelters when the storm hit. The US National Hurricane Center reports that the maximum sustained winds were around 120 km/h (75 mph). In its bulletin, the NHC stated that "rapid weakening" is to be expected as "the center of Polo" moves further inland. Private forecaster AccuWeather warned that the remnants of the hurricane, which are moisture-laden, could cause a flood in the US Southwest and Plains. Damage to Property but No Casualties Polo, a stronger Category 2 storm that smashed trees and turned streets into rivers, pounded the Baja California Peninsula earlier. According to Baja California Sur Governor Victor Manuel Castro, no deaths were caused by the storm. Storms are expected to drop 4 to 6 inches (10-15 cm) of rain across the southern and central parts of Sonora, with maximum amounts of 8?inches in isolated areas. According to the NHC, Baja California Sur may see another 1 to 2 inches in rain with the potential for life-threatening floods and mudslides. "At my house, we secured everything. We were very prepared. Bertha Lopez of Loreto, Baja California Sur said, "We expected it to be stronger, but thank God it wasn't as disastrous." Laura Velazquez of Mexico's Civil Protection Agency said that nearly 700 people took refuge in emergency shelters and would be returning home throughout the day. Mexico's?"Secretariat of the Navy" posted on X that a ship had brought 2,000 food hampers, 8,000 liters?? of drinking water, and other items to the area.
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The US finalizes a sharply lower vehicle fuel efficiency standard
Officials said that the?US?Transportation department will on Monday finalize a sharply lower vehicle's fuel economy standard through 2031. This is reversing an effort by the Biden Administration to force automakers into building more electric vehicles. Donald Trump announced that he has approved new fuel efficiency standards for cars, trucks and buses. He said this will reduce the cost of new vehicles. Sean Duffy, Transportation Secretary, said that "a major victory is coming for America's automobile workers on Monday." According to the department's estimates, new standards would reduce vehicle costs but increase fuel consumption. Trump's move comes at a time when American motorists are struggling with steeply higher fuel costs since the U.S. - Israel war began against Iran in February. The government under Democratic President Joe Biden 'tried to push automakers into building more electric vehicles in order to meet the rising fuel efficiency standards. Biden increased the required fuel efficiency of cars by 8% per year for model years 2024-2025, 10% per year for 2026, and 2% each year from 2027-2031. In December, the Trump administration proposed to retroactively reduce the fuel efficiency standard for 2022 model years and then raise it between 0.25 and 0.5% per year through?2031. The Transportation Department proposed that fleetwide fuel efficiency would average 34.5 miles per gallon (14,7 km per liter), down from the 50.4 miles per galon (21.4km per liter), under Biden. It estimated that its proposal would reduce average new vehicle prices by $930 per vehicle. The department stated that it would increase fuel consumption by 100 billion gallons by 2050. Fuel spending would also rise by $185 billion, and carbon dioxide emissions about 5%. Trump's decision?will allow automakers to offer consumers less-efficient vehicles. Pete Buttigieg who was the Transportation Department head under Biden said that lowering?standards would accelerate what Trump has already done: giving the future of clean tech to China, and forcing Americans to spend more money at the pump. Biden's focus was on reducing US greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel usage and accelerating the transition to clean energy. Clean-energy manufacturing and technology is a key component of the US's global leadership.
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Falling oil prices provide support for bonds in trouble
US Treasury yields stabilized on Friday, with benchmark 10-year note yields moving lower for the day as oil prices fell, after having earlier reached new'multi-decade highs', and traders priced in more Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The AI industry continued to be a source of optimism, which boosted the stock market. The oil price fell by about 3% as traders grew more hopeful of a possible truce between Iran and the US. However, they were also concerned that the Houthi fighters' increased attacks on Saudi Arabia could cause a disruption in the Middle Eastern producers supply. The US Treasury yields are at their highest level since the financial crises, mainly due to persistent concerns about inflation. While the latest signs of 'diplomatic progress' in the Middle East may have temporarily eased geopolitical worries, the market is still unconvinced of the prospect of a normalization of the global energy supply," said Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets head of US rates. The bond market is experiencing a daily downward trend. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Yield fell 0.37 basis point to 5.158% after earlier reaching 5.2297% - the highest since 2007. The 30-year bond rate rose by 2.63 basis points, to 5.4883%. It had previously reached 5.5319%. The ICE BofA MOVE Index is a measure for?bond market volatility. It has risen by about 30% in the last week. This is the biggest increase since April 2025's Liberation Day tariff chaos. A survey released on Friday showed that US consumer sentiment fell to a new low of four months in September, amid fears?that rising prices would reduce the purchasing power of households. Japan's 10-year bonds yield reached 3.121% elsewhere, a record level last seen in 1996. Five of the most influential central bankers in the Group of 10 have increased rates this month. The rest have signaled a pending hike or warned of increasing inflation. STOCKS STAY BOUGANT The stock market has remained resilient despite bond market turmoil. US stocks have rallied on AI-driven optimism, and hope for improved Middle East oil supplies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.93%. The S&P 500 rose by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite grew by 0.48%. Microsoft's 2026 gain jumped to 7% after it unveiled new features in its Copilot application, such as a coding app and an AI agent that is always on. The MSCI?gauge for stocks around the world rose by 0.53%. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.35%. US President Donald Trump hosted Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, at 'the White House' on Thursday. The lavish summit was laden with symbolism, but lacking in substance. There were no signs of progress on thorny topics such as AI and trade, Taiwan, or even the 'war with Iran. DOLLAR OPTIMISM Analysts expect further Fed tightening to keep the US currency strong. Morgan Stanley analysts, led by David S. Adams, said in a report on Friday that they expect the dollar to remain strong through 2027. They cited?favorable rate differentials against peers, robust US economic growth and heightened political risks in Europe. The euro rose 0.14% to $1.1395. The dollar fell 1.01% against the Japanese yen to 157.22. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance minister, said that Trump expressed concern over the yen during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi this week. Spot gold increased 0.31%, to $4.291.25 per ounce.
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Vujcic, ECB's Vujcic, warns diesel prices could fuel inflation
The European Central Bank's Vice President Boris Vujcic stated on Friday that diesel prices are likely to stay high due to the?shrinking refining capacity around the world, which could?push? up inflation in other parts of Europe. As conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere disrupt supply, diesel prices are at record highs. This adds to the inflation pressures within the fuel-importing Euro zone and complicates the ECB's attempts to control price increases. Vujcic said at an event held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland that "energy prices, especially diesel, will probably stay high for a long time and this?will feed?inflation, because diesel is used in many products." He said that drone attacks on Russian refining facilities had curtailed supply. Meanwhile, the Iran war disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This week, the 'diesel market was again jolted by the US President Donald Trump who voiced his support for a possible ban on US diesel exports. Later, the US administration tried to downplay that possibility.
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EU letter warns about energy price crisis and asks for countries to curb demand.
In a letter to countries that was seen by, the EU's energy chief warned of a looming energy crisis as the fallout from the Iran war has roiled oil and gas markets. In a letter sent to the energy ministers of EU member states, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated that "we are facing a pricing crisis linked to a supply crises." Europe relies heavily on imported gas and oil. About 80% of Europe's gas needs are met by foreign suppliers. This leaves the continent highly vulnerable to global energy price increases caused by the Iran War's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is normally used as a transit route of 20% of the world's oil. Europe is not facing a shortage of gas, but prices are soaring. Some countries are struggling to fill their gas storage before winter when home heating demand peaks. Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows that EU gas storage is 70% full, which is 12 percentage points less than the previous year. Jorgensen stated that the EU was better prepared than in winter 2021, when Russia reduced Europe's gas deliveries. This is due to increased LNG import capacity, renewable energy, and a reduction in gas demand. He urged the governments to intensify their preparations for winter. Jorgensen stated, "I invite you to take or continue to take measures that can sustain [gas-storage] injections or to reduce gas and electric demand for as long?necessary." Jorgensen suggested that such measures might include "limiting the temperature in public buildings", preventing "outdoor heating" and turning off unnecessary lighting. A spokesperson for the European Commission did not respond immediately to a comment request.
Sources say that Mexico is considering stopping oil shipments from Cuba due to Trump's retaliation.
Three sources with knowledge of the discussions say that the Mexican government is considering whether it should continue sending oil to Cuba. There are growing concerns within the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum about the possibility that the United States could retaliate against Mexico for this policy. The policy is vital to the Communist-run Caribbean island. The U.S. blocked oil tankers from Venezuela in December, and President Nicolas Maduro was captured this month. This has halted Venezuelan oil deliveries to Cuba. Mexico is now the sole supplier of energy for the island which suffers from massive blackouts and energy shortages. Mexico's role as a major oil supplier to Cuba also puts 'the U.S.'s southern neighbor in Washington's crosshairs. In a post on Truth Social dated January 11, President Donald Trump said that Cuba was "ready to fall".
Sheinbaum said publicly that Mexico would continue to ship oil to Cuba. He explained that the shipments are part of long-term contracts, and they are considered international aid. Senior Mexican government sources, however, said that the policy was being reviewed internally as Sheinbaum's Cabinet grows increasingly anxious about the possibility of Trump becoming upset by the oil shipments.
Mexico is trying negotiate a revision of the USMCA North American Trade Pact while also convincing Washington that it is doing enough in combating drug cartels, and that U.S. Military action against these groups on Mexican soil is neither welcomed nor necessary.
Sources requested anonymity in order to discuss a sensitive issue. Sources say that the Mexican government is still undecided about its final decision. They have said that a total halt, a reduced amount, or a full continuation are all options.
The Mexican presidency said that the country has "always been in solidarity" with the Cuban people and?added, shipping oil to Cuba as well as a separate agreement for paying for the services provided by Cuban doctors are "sovereign decisions." The Cuban government has not responded to a comment request.
White House official: "As President said, Cuba has failed on its own accord... There will be no more oil or money coming to Cuba from Venezuela and he strongly recommends Cuba make a deal before too late."
CARTELS ATTACKED by LAND ATTACKS
Trump has increased pressure on Mexico in recent weeks. He says that the cartels run the country and that a ground attack against them is imminent. Sheinbaum has stressed repeatedly that any unilateral action by the U.S. Sheinbaum has repeatedly stressed that any unilateral?U.S.
One of the sources said: "There's a growing concern that the United States might take unilateral action against our territory."
Two sources claim that during a telephone call with Sheinbaum last week, Trump asked about the crude and fuel shipments going to Cuba, and?the presence in Mexico of thousands of Cuban physicians. Sheinbaum replied that the shipments were "humanitarian assistance" and that doctors' deals "are in full compliance" to Mexican law, according to sources familiar with this call. The sources said that Trump did not ask Mexico directly to stop the oil deliveries.
Three sources confirmed that officials within Sheinbaum’s government have also been growing increasingly concerned by the increased presence of U.S. Navy Drones in the Gulf of Mexico, since December. Local media reported that flight-tracking data showed at least three U.S. Northrop Grumman Triton MQ-4C drones had flown a dozen times over the Bay of Campeche. They followed the same route as tankers transporting Mexican fuel from Mexico to Cuba.
The same reconnaissance aircraft was spotted in December off the Venezuelan coastline, just days before the U.S. attacked the South American nation.
Sheinbaum led an offensive against the Sinaloa Cartel, and approved three mass transfers of drug kingpins in excess of 100 to?the United States.
Sheinbaum, a senior U.S. official, has stated repeatedly that unilateral U.S. actions on Mexican soil represent a redline.
Sheinbaum stated on Wednesday that "very little crude oil is exported to Cuba. But it's a form solidarity in times of hardship." Sheinbaum said that "that doesn't need to disappear".
CUBA'S MEXICAN OIL FEEDLINE
Trump's campaign of pressure against Cuba began during his first term, when he reversed many historic rapprochements orchestrated by the former Democratic President Barack Obama. It has increased ever since Trump returned to office one year ago.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a Cuban-American and has been the driving force behind Trump’s Venezuela policy. He, along with other U.S. officials, also believes that this could weaken Maduro’s Cuban allies. The constraints on Trump's Cuba policy are even more difficult to overcome, considering Havana's regional support and international recognition, the entrenched nature and power of Cuba's security forces and leadership, and its ability to endure decades under the U.S. embargo.
The Caribbean's largest island relies heavily upon fuel imports to meet its electricity, gasoline and aviation fuel needs. U.S. economic sanctions and the deepening crisis in the economy have made it impossible for the Communist government to purchase enough fuel.
Three sources within Sheinbaum’s government said that there is a strong belief in the Sheinbaum’s government that Washington’s strategy to cut off Cuba’s oil supply could lead the country into a humanitarian catastrophe, leading to mass migrations from Cuba to Mexico. Some government officials are pushing for the continuation of fuel supplies on the island, the sources said.
It is unlikely that other oil companies will step up to fill the gap, considering the U.S. military presence and focus in the area. The U.S. seized vessels that were involved in Venezuelan oil trading, vessels that are part of the shadow fleet, which supplies crude from countries that have been sanctioned by the U.S., such as Iran and Russia.
According to data reported by the Mexican state oil company Pemex, between January and September of last year, Mexico exported 17,200 barrels of crude oil per day and 2,000 bpd refined petroleum products worth $400 million to Cuba.
(source: Reuters)