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Dollar falls, stocks rise as US-China talks focus

The dollar fell on Monday as the United States and China began talks in London to settle a trade conflict between their two largest economies.

The trade dispute has gone beyond tit for tat tariffs and now includes restrictions on rare earths. This could cripple supply chains, slowing global growth.

Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities.

All three major Wall Street indexes rose, with the Dow erasing previous declines due to weakness in Travelers, McDonald's and Morgan Stanley, which downgraded the latter's rating from "equal weight" to "equal".

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 99.41 points or 0.23% to 42,862.26, while the S&P 500 gained 18.48 points or 0.31% to 6,018.84, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 88.71 or 0.46% to 19,618.93.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose 3.37 points (0.38%) to 895.33, and is on course for its second consecutive session of gains. In five of the six recent sessions, it has increased.

In Europe, STOXX 600 closed down by 0.07%, ending a winning streak of four sessions, its longest consecutive run in three weeks.

The U.S. Dollar fell against most major currencies as caution in anticipation of trade talks offset optimism about a better than expected U.S. Employment Report on Friday.

In a post on social media, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent will be joined by Commerce Sec. Howard Lutnick, and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer to represent Washington at the discussions with China.

China's Foreign Ministry announced Vice Premier He Lifeng would be in Britain to attend the first meeting of China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultative Mechanism.

The U.S. economy data revealed that wholesale inventories in April increased amid stockpiling prescription medications in anticipation of tariffs by the Trump administration.

Investors will also be watching Wednesday's U.S. Inflation data, which may change expectations about the timing of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Morgan Stanley analysts said that they expect May to be the beginning of a series of core inflation readings which will become increasingly stronger. The impact from tariffs is expected to peak in the third quarter, and then begin to decline in the fourth.

According to LSEG, the market currently prices in a 59% probability of a central bank cut of at least 25% basis points during its September meeting. The Fed is in a "blackout" period before the policy decision on June 18.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currency) fell 0.14%, while the euro rose 0.24%, reaching $1.1421.

Treasury yields on longer-term U.S. Treasury notes were lower to start the week. This reversed after the Friday jobs report drove yields higher. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes fell 3.4 basis points, to 4.476%.

U.S. crude oil rose by 0.51%, to $64.92 per barrel. Brent was up to $66.74 a barrel on the day. This is on hopes that a trade agreement could boost the global economy outlook.

(source: Reuters)