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Treasury yields increase, dollar falls amid fiscal concerns following US downgrade

Treasury yields increase, dollar falls amid fiscal concerns following US downgrade

The dollar weakened on Monday as the yields of longer-dated Treasury bonds rose, amid worries about the U.S. government's debt and the tax cut bill following Moody's decision to downgrade the country's credit rating.

The major U.S. stock indexes recovered early losses and ended the day in a flat or slightly higher range.

Moody's Investors Service lowered the United States' sovereign rating to triple-A late on Friday night, underscoring the country's worsening fiscal outlook.

A key congressional committee approved the massive tax-cutting bill of U.S. president Donald Trump on Sunday. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives, who currently control it, will push for the bill's passage this week.

The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds reached a high of 18 months before reversing. Investors are concerned that tax bills will increase debt loads by more than expected.

The 30-year bond rate rose 3.7 basis points, to 4.934%. It had previously reached 5.037% - the highest level since November 2023. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 3 basis points, to 4.469%. It had earlier reached 4.564%.

What Moody's has done is more symbolic than anything. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage.

Yes, the yields have risen in response to news reports... "But they're moving up also for other reasons," he said. "In general, the stock market (has) not really reacted all that much to Moody's' announcement. It's more of a market that has risen and is trying to consolidate recent moves.

Moody's downgrade follows similar actions by Fitch and Standard & Poor's, both in 2011.

Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, used Sunday's television interviews to dismiss this downgrade.

Several Federal Reserve officials commented on the U.S. market on Monday following the downgrade. John Williams, New York Fed president, said that investors were "clearly weighing" their options at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference in New York.

He said that investors still see the U.S., "including Treasuries and fixed income assets" as a "great place to invest."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 137.33, or 0.32 percent, to 42.792.07. The S&P 500 gained 5.22, or 0.09 percent, to 5,963.60, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 4.36, or 0.02 percent, to 19,215.46.

On Friday, the S&P 500 posted its fifth consecutive day of gains.

MSCI's global stock index rose by 1.77 points or 0.20 percent to 882.39. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.13% while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 rose 2.80 points or 0.13%.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.5%. A mixed bag of Chinese economic data revealed a struggling economy.

The U.S. Dollar fell, reaching a low of more than a week against the safe haven currencies, including the yen and Swiss franc. The dollar fell 0.55% against the Japanese yen to 144.82.

Trump's tariffs war has weakened consumer sentiment. Analysts will be looking at Home Depot and Target earnings this week to get an update on trends in spending. Home Depot will report Tuesday morning before the opening bell.

Trump said that Walmart would be forced to raise prices because of the levies if it didn't "eat the tariffs".

Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed president, told CNBC Monday that the central bank might only be able reduce interest rates by one quarter point for the remainder of the year due to concerns over rising inflation caused by increased import taxes.

The Group of Seven Democracies' finance leaders will try to show unity this week when they meet on topics other that Trump's tariffs. These include economic security, Ukraine, and artificial intelligence collaboration.

The oil price ended up slightly higher, as the Moody's downgrade was offset by signs of an impasse with Iran in U.S. nuclear talks.

Brent crude futures increased 13 cents, settling at $65.54 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 20 cents, settling at $62.69 per barrel.

Gold prices rose, with spot gold rising 0.9% to $3,229.51, while U.S. futures gold settled 1.5% higher, at $3233.5.

(source: Reuters)