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Stocks and the dollar rise as tariffs calm down

The dollar shook on Friday as investors enjoyed a temporary respite from the uncertainty of tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump.

Trump's plan to impose reciprocal duties on all countries taxing U.S. imported goods has stoked concerns of a broad-ranging trade conflict, driving gold prices up to a new record high this week. Gold prices were set to rise for the seventh consecutive week.

Trump's directive on Thursday did not include new tariffs. Instead, it sparked an investigation that could last weeks or even months into levies placed on U.S. products by other trading partners. Then a response was developed.

The analysts at Barclays said that the delay does not necessarily reflect a reduced likelihood of the tariffs being imposed.

Trump launched a trade conflict last week, imposing tariffs first on Mexico and Canada, then pausing the duties, and sticking to those on Chinese goods.

Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone said: "It appears that Trump's bark is worse than his bite in the area of trade."

The yo-yoing price action and the merry-go round of headlines will continue as participants try to discount the latest news.

European futures point to a lower opening after the pan European STOXX 600 and Germany's DAX index closed at record highs on Thursday. Futures for Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones have risen.

The Hang Seng Tech Index, a measure of Chinese technology stocks, reached its highest level in the last three years Thursday, thanks to the success of a Chinese start-up, DeepSeek.

Hong Kong's benchmark stock index rose by over 2% on Friday, bringing its weekly gains up to 5%. This is the fifth consecutive week of gains, and its strongest performance weekly in four months.

James Ooi is a market strategist for Tiger Brokers. He said that the DeepSeek rally has more upside potential in the short-term, but the ability of the Chinese tech industry to monetise artificial intelligence will determine if the rally can be sustained.

Ooi stated that "while Chinese tech companies are valued lower, their dependence on domestic revenue limits the potential for them to achieve valuation levels comparable with global tech giants... They (also) face increased scrutiny over privacy and safety concerns."

The MSCI index for Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan, which is the broadest of the three MSCI indices, rose 0.37% and hovered near its two-month-high it reached on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei index fell by 0.8%, but is still on track to make gains for the entire week.

Watch for Inflation

Data released on Thursday shows that U.S. producer price increases were solid in January. This reinforces the view of financial markets that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates until the second half.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was soft. This led to the hope that the PCE reading would be lower than expected.

The consumer price index (CPI) for Wednesday showed the largest increase in almost 1-1/2 years.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes was unchanged at 4,531%, after falling 10 basis points Thursday. This is its largest daily decline in a whole month.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies) was at 107.13 on Friday after dropping by 0.8%, its largest one-day percentage decline since January 20.

The euro was hovering near its highest level in over two weeks, at $1.0453. This is supported by optimism surrounding potential peace talks between Ukraine & Russia.

The rise in oil prices on Friday is expected to bring an end to three weeks of declining prices, boosted by the rising demand for fuel.

Brent futures rose 0.2% to $75.17 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), gained 0.14% at $71.39.

(source: Reuters)