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OPEC trims its China crude demand projection, but nowhere near adequate: Russell

OPEC cut its quote for China's petroleum need growth in 2024 for a 3rd straight month in October, but the producer group is still enormously positive offered the reality of falling imports.

The most recent regular monthly report by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said China's crude oil need will expand by 580,000 barrels each day (bpd) in 2024.

This estimate is below the 650,000 bpd gain projection in September, and is also 180,000 bpd below the increase of 760,000 bpd OPEC was predicting in July for the world's most significant oil importer.

While OPEC is edging more detailed to reality, its need projection is extremely out of kilter with China's falling imports.

Official custom-mades data released on Monday revealed China's. crude arrivals at 11.07 million bpd in September, down 0.6% from. the very same month in 2023 and the fifth straight month that imports. dropped from the year before.

For the very first 3 quarters of 2024, China's crude imports. were 10.99 million bpd, down 2.8% from the 11.34 million bpd in. the same duration in 2023.

Imports are down 350,000 bpd in the very first nine months of. 2024, a figure that makes OPEC's lowered demand projection. seem hopelessly wrong.

Of course, crude oil imports are just one aspect of overall. need, others consist of any boost in domestic output or. changes in stock levels.

China's domestic oil output is up until now in 2024, with. production in the first 8 months can be found in at 4.29 million. bpd, which is 70,000 bpd above the exact same duration in 2023.

But the boost in domestic output is still well listed below the. decrease in crude imports.

China does not reveal the volume of crude it keeps in. industrial and tactical stockpiles, but it's specific that they. have actually been adding to them so far in 2024, instead of drawing. down.

A price quote can be made of the volume of unrefined readily available for. storage by deducting the amount of crude processed from the. combined overall of oil offered from imports and domestic. output.

On this basis China's surplus oil for the very first eight months. of the year was 1.11 million bpd, which is about 300,000 bpd. more than for the exact same period in 2023.

Overall, the image that emerges from China's oil sector is. modest development in domestic output, but this is nowhere near. enough to offset the decrease in crude imports.

PRICE-LED HEALING?

The question for OPEC, and the broader oil market, is. whether China's imports are likely to accelerate in the fourth. quarter.

It's most likely that the answer lies mainly with costs, as. proof suggests that China has actually become a price-sensitive purchaser. in the last few years, importing surplus volumes when the cost is low,. however trimming arrivals and utilizing stockpiles when costs are. deemed to have actually risen expensive, or too quickly.

It's perhaps no surprise that China's imports were soft in. September, given that international crude rates were rising during the. period when September-arriving freights would have been arranged.

Criteria Brent futures rose from a four-month low. of $76.76 a barrel on June 4 to a high of $87.85 on July 5, the. period when much of the September-arriving freights would. have been purchased.

Ever since Brent has actually trended weaker, dropping to a 34-month. low of $68.68 a barrel on Sept. 10, after which it has recovered. to end at $75.19 on Monday, largely as a result of increasing. stress in the Middle East amidst the risk of an Israeli strike. versus Iran.

Nevertheless, the declining cost trend from July to. mid-September may have motivated Chinese refiners to improve. imports, especially versus the backdrop of the Middle East. dispute.

If this is the case, China's crude imports may stage. something of a healing in the fourth quarter, but this is still. unlikely to be adequate to meet OPEC's positive view of the. country's demand growth for 2024.

The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)