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Rising inventories of copper outweigh Mideast ceasefire hope
After a brief dip in prices, copper prices fell on Thursday. This was due to rising'stocks' and weakening consumer demand, particularly in China, the world's largest consumer. Investors were also waiting for clarity about the possibility of ceasefire?in the Middle East. Benchmark 'three-month' copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped 1.17% to $13,177 per metric tonne by 0341 GMT, after finding some help from a weaker dollar the previous day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract was down by 0.03% to?95.160 yuan per ton ($13.789.31), after reaching its highest price since March 19, at 96.590?yuan. The red metal, used in construction and power plants, was under pressure as stocks in LME approved warehouses were increasing. The market reached an eight-year high of 361,075 tonnes on Wednesday. This is a 153% increase since the start of this year. After a flurry of dip-buying, traders said that some Chinese consumers had entered the market to restock. Investors are also closely following developments in the Middle East conflict, which has caused turmoil on energy markets and threatened economic growth worldwide. Iran's Foreign Minister said that the country is reviewing the U.S. proposal to end the war. This suggests that Tehran may be willing to negotiate, even though its initial response was negative. Other LME metals saw a?0.45% drop in aluminum, a 0.55% fall in lead, tin fell 1.2%, and zinc dropped 0.7%. Nickel also slipped 0.34%. Other SHFE metals, such as aluminium, lead, and tin, declined by 0.46% each, while zinc fell 0.22%. Nickel outperformed the other metals with a 0.5% gain as concerns about supply grew after Australia's Nickel Industries announced?on Thursday that it had?suspended its Hengjaya Mine in Indonesia following an accident this week.
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Grain futures-Chicago soya rises as Trump plans a May meeting with China’s Xi
Chicago soybeans rose on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to visit Chinese President Xi Jinping this May boosted hopes for stronger Chinese demand for U.S. supply. Wheat and corn gained as well. As of 0425 GMT, the?most active?soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade climbed 0.2% to $11.74-1/4 per bushel. CBOT wheat rose 0.4% to $6.00-1/4 per bushel. Corn increased 0.1% to $4.67-1/4 a bushel. Originally scheduled to travel next Monday, Trump will visit Beijing May?14-15. He said on Truth Social Wednesday that he would be hosting Xi?for a return visit to Washington later in the year. Analysts in Beijing said that some traders were optimistic that the meeting would increase the prospects of China purchasing U.S. soya beans. However, it is worth noting that China now purchases most of its soybeans directly from Brazil. China is expected to increase its imports of Brazilian soyabeans in the first half 2026 as record production and low prices drive shipments. Chinese state-owned companies have purchased about 12 million metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans since late October. This fulfills a U.S. pledge. However, volumes are still well below China’s purchase?of approximately 23 million tons for the 2024/25 harvest year. According to Agroconsult, an agribusiness consulting firm, Brazil is the world's biggest soybean exporter and producer. Farmers are expected to harvest 184.7 millions tons of soybeans during the 2025/2026 season. This estimate was raised by 0.9% following the completion of the Rally da Safra survey. Agroconsult?said that Brazil's soybean planting area is likely to remain the same in the coming?2026/27 growing season. However, the outcome will depend on the duration of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. The reports of a U.S. 15-point plan to end the Iran war, in response to Trump's remarks this week regarding talks with Tehran, have also raised hopes for a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu, Sumana nandy and Daphne Zhang)
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Iron ore is a major concern for supply disruption in Australia
Iron ore futures rose Thursday on concerns about disruptions in Australian'supply due to ports being closed in the Pilbara area following a cyclone. As of 0226 GMT, the most-traded contract for?May?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.31% higher. It cost 818 yuan (US$118.45) per metric ton. The benchmark April Iron Ore on the Singapore Exchange rose by 2.15% to $107.45 per tonne. Pilbara Ports announced on Thursday that the ports at Ashburton and Cape Preston West were closed due to Tropical Cyclone Narelle. This has led to concerns about iron ore supplies from Australia, which is the top exporter. The gains, however, were limited?due?to production restrictions in China's iron ore hub?of Tangshan which could?result in a lower demand. Local authorities reported that the city activated an emergency level-2 response on March 25 due to heavy air pollution. Mysteel, a consultancy, said that steel mills in Tangshan also face restrictions on scrap trucks entering their facilities. High energy prices are causing concern about global inflation and a decline in expectations of U.S. rate cuts. A note from Shanghai Metals Market said that the 'broader caution' has increased the risk of price corrections across bulk commodities. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, fell by 0.96% each on Thursday. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar,?hot-rolled?coil and wire rod all traded at the same price. Stainless steel rose 0.66%. ($1 = 6.9058 Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema; Ruth Chai)
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Sources say that the sale of Jindal Steel to Thyssenkrupp has been stalled over pension and energy costs.
Four?people with knowledge of the matter have said that discussions about a possible sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe to Jindal Steel International may be called off because of differences regarding pension liabilities, energy costs and investments. Despite the fact that?talks are still ongoing over a possible sale of 'Thyssenkrupp - Steel Europe (TKSE), and an agreement could still be reached, a deal now seems less likely. One person said that the companies may decide to stop official negotiations as early as next month. Thyssenkrupp tried to sell TKSE'several times over the last decades. If TKSE is not sold, it would be a blow to the plan of Thyssenkrupp's CEO Miguel Lopez who wants to transform the storied German Engineering Group into a holding. This will involve divesting stakes from all its business divisions ranging between car?parts and clean-tech. The people who spoke to us said that a number of factors are complicating the talks, including 2.4 billion euro ($2.8 billion) in pension?liabilities linked to TKSE. These liabilities have posed a challenge for past sales attempts, and there is also disagreement over the amount of future investment needed. The second source also said that Jindal Steel International has become increasingly uneasy over the rising costs of energy in Europe. The energy costs in Europe are already higher than those in the United States or Asia. However, they have increased further due to the Iran War. Thyssenkrupp announced on Wednesday that confidential talks continued with Jindal Steel International, and representatives of the labour movement. The parties will need to agree on valuation, obligations and future investments. Jindal Steel International (the?international steel?arm?of the Naveen Jindal Group) had no comment immediately. Juergen Kerner's, Thyssenkrupp’s deputy supervisory Board chairman, said last week that talks have stalled. Lopez also stated that EU plans to protect the underperforming steel industry in the EU had increased investor confidence and strengthened Thyssenkrupp’s position in negotiations. Jindal Steel International made a preliminary offer to TKSE in September. This included the completion of a new green steel production facility in Duisburg, and a commitment for more than $2.31 billion in order to increase electric arc furnace capacities.
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Stocks are on edge after Middle East ceasefire negotiations take centre stage
Investors treaded carefully amid the dizzying Middle East developments, as Iran said it would consider a U.S. proposal to end the Gulf Conflict. The escalating war has jolted the global markets. Oil prices have soared, rekindling inflation fears, and causing global interest rate expectations to be thrown into chaos. In early Asian trading, the Nikkei was up 0.6% and South Korean stocks were down by 1.2%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan edged down 0.23%, setting up for an 8.7% drop in the month. This is its largest monthly decline since October 2022. The dollar remained near its recent highs, and was on track for a monthly gain of 2%. This cemented the dollar's status as a safe haven. Iran's latest remarks suggest that Tehran is willing to "negotiate" an end to war, if their demands are met. The U.S. has sent Iran a 15 point ceasefire proposal that was initially brushed aside by Iranian officials. Chris Weston is the head of research for Pepperstone. He said: "While headlines indicate a more positive tone, markets are unsure about which signals they can trust and act on." Price action indicates that participants are expecting further twists and turn, even though the likelihood of a negotiated result is increasing. The 'war' that lasted for nearly a month, triggered by the joint U.S. and Israeli strikes against?Iran late in February, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is a conduit used to transport a fifth of all global oil and liquefied gas. Prices have soared above $100 per barrel due to the disruption. Brent crude futures are at $103.35 a barrel, up by 1% for the day and on track to see a 42% increase in the next month. It will be difficult to reconcile all of these points if you consider what the U.S., Israel, and Tehran want to achieve," said Matthias Scheiber. He is a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments and head of their Multi Asset Team. "We think that there are still arguments to be made for higher energy prices?for the time being." Fears that soaring oil prices could cause an inflationary shock have led traders to discount any chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. This has helped boost the dollar. The dollar has been boosted by traders who have priced out any?chance of a Federal Reserve?rate cut this year. The European Central Bank's Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that she would consider raising interest rates if the war in the Middle East continues to push up inflation in the region. Lagarde said in Frankfurt that if the shock leads to a large but not too persistent overshoot, a measured adjustment of policy may be warranted. The euro was little altered at $1.1562, while sterling purchased $1.3358. The yen was hovering at 159.43 dollars, clinging to the 160 level traders are watching as a possible trigger for intervention. Gold was up 0.66% at $4,537 an ounce. However, it has been largely selling off in this month. It is now on track for a 14 percent drop, the steepest since October 2008. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam in Singapore)
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Investors reassess Middle East peace prospects as oil prices rise
Oil prices rose?on Friday, recovering some?previous-day's losses, as investors reexamined the prospects for a?deescalation of conflict in the Middle East. Iran also said that it was still evaluating a U.S. plan to end the conflict, which had disrupted the energy flow. Brent futures increased $1.13 or 1.1% to $103.35 a bar by 0051 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures were also up $1.08 or 1.2% at $91.40 a bar. Both benchmarks fell more than 2% Wednesday. Iran's Foreign Minister?said that despite reviewing the proposal, it has no intention to hold talks in order to end the growing conflict in the Middle East. Karoline Leavitt, White House press secretary, said that Donald Trump would hit Iran harder if Tehran refused to acknowledge that it had been "defeated military" Tsuyoshi ueno, senior researcher at NLI Research Institute said that optimism regarding a possible ceasefire had faded. He said that Washington's 'barrier of expectation' was high and the oil price could be volatile if both sides do not negotiate or take military action. According to three Israeli sources who are familiar with Trump's plan, the '15-point' proposal sent via Pakistan calls for Iran's highly enriched uranium stocks to be removed, enrichment halted, its ballistic missile programme curtailed, and funding cut off for regional allies. The conflict has almost completely stopped shipments through Strait of Hormuz. This is the route that carries one-fifth of all crude oil and natural gas shipped around the world. The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption ever. Sources said that India has purchased its first cargo of liquefied gas from Iran in many years, after the U.S. lifted temporary sanctions on Tehran's refined fuels and oil. During talks on Wednesday, the Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi requested that Fatih Birol 'coordinate an additional release of oil stocks. Tokyo is seeking to protect itself against a long-term Middle East conflict. Three Iraqi energy officials stated on Wednesday that the production of Iraqi oil has dropped, and that storage tanks have reached critical levels. According to market data, calculations show that at least 40% of Russia’s oil export capability is halted following Ukrainian drone strikes, a disputed assault on a major pipeline, and the seizure or tankers. The U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 6.9m barrels, to 456.2m barrels during the week ending March 20. This is the highest level since June 2024. It also far exceeded analysts' expectations based on a poll that predicted a 477,000 barrel increase. (Reporting and editing by Edmund Klamann, Kevin Buckland and Yuka Obayashi)
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Worker sues Valero over Texas refinery explosion
A man who claimed to have been injured in an explosion at Valero Energy’s Port Arthur, Texas refinery Monday night filed a suit on Wednesday with a state district court, alleging that the?company?failed?to properly maintain the refinery. The lawsuit filed at the Jefferson County District Court of Beaumont, Texas, is seeking more than $1,000,000 in damages. A Valero spokesperson had no immediate comment on Wednesday night. Valero filed a report with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) on Tuesday. The company stated: "An unexpected release of fluid from Complex?2 caused an ignition event, and multiple process units were upset." Jonathan Jaimes, who was working at the Port Arthur refinery in east Texas near the Louisiana border, was present when a diesel hydrotreater explosion shook homes up to 18 kilometres away. "(Jaimes played no role in the tasks or events that led to the explosion. According to the lawsuit, "the blast and heat of the fire from the explosion caused him to be injured as a result." The lawsuit stated that Jaimes suffered injuries to his back, neck, spine, and other parts. He is also suffering from a?post-traumatic stress disorder. In an emailed message, Kyle Findley, an lawyer at Arnold & Itkin who represents?Jaimes said, "This wasn't an unavoidable incident - it was a result of gross negligence, and a flagrant disrespect for worker safety." Findley stated that Valero was aware of the risks in this facility but chose to ignore them. "If a company shows such a disregard for the safety of their workers and the community around them, they must be held responsible." Jaimes refused to comment when contacted by a representative of the law firm Arnold & Itkin.
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Australia's Lynas signs potential rare earths agreement with South Korea's LS Eco Energy
Australia's Lynas rare Earths and LS Eco Energy, a South Korean company, announced on Thursday that they would 'work together' to process rare-earth metals to meet the demand of customers scrambling for non-Chinese suppliers. According to a preliminary 'agreement', LS Eco Energy will build a processing facility in Vietnam that will supply rare earth oxides. The South Korean company plans to use these metals in the U.S. to produce permanent rare earth magnets. LS has stated that it plans to begin operations at its Vietnam factory by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. Rare earths are used in tiny but critical quantities to make magnets for everything from iPhones to cars and F-35 jets. China has dominated global supply of rare earths for many years, but export restrictions imposed in response to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs are encouraging other nations to find alternative sources. Lee Sang-ho is the CEO of LS Eco Energy. He said that customers from the automotive, industrial and other sectors were trying to establish supply chains outside of China. He said that as China has weaponised rare Earths, they must quickly create a value chain by purchasing non-Chinese earths at premium prices. Lynas said the new facility would help it supply more metallised NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) and selected heavy rare earth products, with the first stage to focus on ?samarium, used in the aerospace and automotive industries. The two companies also agreed to separate deals in which Lynas and LS Eco Energy, the largest rare earth 'producers outside China, would both cross-subscribe for about A$30 millions ($20.84 mln) of convertible instruments. LS 'Eco Energy', a division of LS Cable & System (a major cable manufacturer), hopes to use metals expertise while utilizing the group’s existing factory locations in Vietnam and the United States in order to'reduce costs. Non-Chinese firms have struggled to compete with Chinese competitors on price and technology. Projects are stuck in the 'drawing board' for years. Companies are finding it more difficult to invest in the production of key minerals, such as those needed for electric motors, due to the slowing EV demand.
Stocks fall with safe haven possessions in need, growth concerns in focus
MSCI's international equities gauge and oil costs fell on Wednesday while safehaven possessions Treasuries and Japan's yen remained in need as mixed batch of economic data drove issues about slowing growth.
Crude oil futures settled lower for the third day in a row, including a more than 4% loss on Tuesday.
In U.S. Treasuries, yields fell and the closely seen yield curve in between two-year and 10-year notes turned positive after information showed that U.S. job openings was up to a 3-1/2- year. low in July.
On Tuesday, Wall Street stock indexes registered their. most significant daily percentage drops because early August as financiers. took revenues while weak U.S. manufacturing data did little to. boost danger hungers.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 was last down after. spending the early morning flitting in between red and green as investors. waited anxiously for the remainder of the week's data. Thursday will. bring a reading on the U.S. services market with unemployed. claims data.
Friday's fiercely expected August report for nonfarm. payrolls is expected to supply the clearest clues regarding the. health of the U.S. economy and whether the Federal Reserve will. cut interest rates this month by a quarter or a half a. percentage point.
In a historically weak month for stocks, financiers are. acting more cautious and more worried about the growth outlook. than the inflation outlook, stated Anthony Saglimbene, chief. market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.
Wednesday's information was a variety. A Commerce Department. report showed brand-new orders for U.S.-manufactured items increased. more than anticipated in July, boosted by defense airplane. But. demand elsewhere was moderate with borrowing expenses high.
U.S. job openings in July dropped to their least expensive level. since January 2021, recommending the labor market was slowing. and leading traders to contribute to bets that the Fed will provide a. half-a-percentage-point cut in rates at its meeting this month.
The setup is changing. Perhaps three-four months earlier, markets. would feel good about a 50 basis point cut. Now a 50 basis point. cut would signal that growth is slowing more than expected and. that the Fed is behind the curve, stated Ameriprise's Saglimbene.
Likewise on Wednesday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael. Bostic stated the U.S. central bank need to not keep rates of interest. too expensive a lot longer or it risks damaging employment too much.
On Wall Street at 2:54 p.m. (1854 GMT) the Dow Jones. Industrial Average fell 47.42 points, or 0.12%, to. 40,889.51; the S&P 500 lost 16.20 points, or 0.29%, to. 5,512.73; and the Nasdaq Composite lost 61.41 points, or. 0.36%, to 17,074.89.
MSCI's gauge of stocks around the world fell. 5.44 points, or 0.66%, to 814.03. Earlier in the day, Europe's. STOXX 600 index closed down 0.97%.
In forex markets, the dollar eased against a lot of. major currencies after the July U.S. job openings information slanted. the chances even more in favor of larger U.S. rate cuts while the yen. benefited from a safe haven quote.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback. against a basket of currencies consisting of the yen and the euro,. fell 0.32% to 101.37.
The euro was up 0.28% at $1.1074 while versus the. Japanese yen, the dollar compromised 1.05% to 143.94.
Stock exchange instability and dropping U.S. yields have actually made. the yen a strong performer, stated Marc Chandler, primary market. strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.
In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes. fell 7.6 basis points to 3.768%, from 3.844% late on. Tuesday. The 2-year note yield, which usually moves. in step with rates of interest expectations, fell 11.4 basis points. to 3.7745%, from 3.888% late on Tuesday.
A carefully watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. determining the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury. notes, seen as an indication of economic. expectations, was last at an unfavorable 0.9 basis points.
The huge event of the week is available in the type of Friday's. payrolls print, stated Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates method at. BMO Capital Markets in New York City. That's to a big extent going. to offer us the plan for what to expect from the Fed. The. employment information is now overshadowing inflation as the most significant. risk to near-term policy expectations.
Crude oil prices fell on pessimism about need in the. coming months as unrefined producers offered mixed signals about. supply boosts. Dull data from the U.S. and China have. added to persistent expectations for a weaker global economy.
U.S. crude settled down 1.6% at $69.20 a barrel while. Brent settled at $72.70 per barrel, down 1.4%.
Gold prices reversed course to gain ground with assistance from a. softer dollar and lower yields after the weak data on U.S. task. openings. Area gold added 0.05% to $2,494.07 an ounce.
(source: Reuters)