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EIA sees tighter US oil market for 2024, reduces price outlook

The U.S. Energy Info Administration on Tuesday forecast tighter supply and need balances for U.S. oil markets this year, while also lowering its outlook for unrefined rates, according to its ShortTerm Energy Outlook.

The EIA raised its forecast for 2024 U.S. oil demand by 100,000 bpd to 20.5 million bpd. It left its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast the same, with consumption increasing year-over-year by 1.1 million bpd to 102.9 million bpd

U.S. oil production, on the other hand, will grow by 300,000 bpd. this year to a record 13.23 million bpd, the EIA said, slightly lower than its last projection which saw production up by 320,000 bpd this year.

In the Permian basin, the largest U.S. oilfield, production is set to grow by 10,000 bpd this month to 6.39 million bpd.

Even with a tighter market, the EIA reduced its outlook for West Texas Intermediate unrefined rates for the year to $80.21 a. barrel, down 2.2% from its previous forecast of $82.03 a barrel. That follows current sell-offs triggered by issues about the. economy, the company said.

Oil markets today fell to their most affordable level because. January amidst issues about an economic downturn. They were up somewhat. on Tuesday, with Brent trading around $76.63 a barrel and WTI. trading at 73.27 a barrel.

In spite of the cut to the average yearly cost forecasts,. the company expects Brent futures to increase in the months ahead and. range in between $85 and $90 by the end of the year, largely on. production cuts by the OPEC+ group pressing inventories lower.

UBS analyst Givoanni Staunovo stated the EIA upgrade was a. decently bullish revision due to the a little bigger deficits. expected through this year and next.

The firm lowered its projection for 2025 world oil need to. 104.5 million bpd, versus a previous projection of 104.7 million. bpd. Majority of that decrease is because of slowing financial. growth in China, the EIA said in its report.

The EIA likewise cut its projection for 2024 U.S. gas. production to 103.3 billion cubic feet each day, below 103.5. bcfd previously. It expects 2025 production at 104.6 bcfd,. compared to a forecast of 105.2 bcfd in its previous outlook.

U.S. gas rates have fallen greatly over the previous two. months. Henry Center futures were trading around $2.016 million. British thermal units on Tuesday.

(source: Reuters)