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China's steel sector is not as bleak as it appears: Russell

China's steel output fell in November from October, relatively another sign of the struggles on the planet's greatest producer of the crucial metal for construction and production.

But while November production did drop 4.3% from October, the detail is much more nuanced and the big picture shows China's. steel sector is mostly stable, as it has actually been for the past 5. years.

Unrefined steel output in the world's largest producer was 78.4. million metric loads in November, below 81.88 million in. October, information from the National Bureau of Data showed on. Monday.

However, on a heaps per day basis, November was 2.61 million. lots, down just 1.1% from October's 2.64 million and higher than. the 2.54 million from November 2023.

It's most likely that output reduced in October as steel mills saw. margins squeezed by higher iron ore costs and softer prices for. crucial steel products such as rebar.

Steel production also tends to moderate as the northern. winter season techniques, partially as need relieves with cooler weather condition. cutting building and construction, but likewise steel mills tend to go through. maintenance and face contamination control procedures in some locations.

For the very first 11 months of the year, China's steel output. was 929.19 million tons, down 2.7% from the very same duration last. year.

However, it's likely that December's production will be available in. greater than December 2023, which at 67.44 million heaps was the. weakest in six years.

This implies that 2024 output is most likely to be around 1 billion. loads, approximately in line with the 1.02 billion tons produced in. 2023.

However, given 2024 production is most likely to be slightly down. from 2023's figure, the media headlines will probably be. downbeat when the final data is released early next year.

This isn't an accurate image. In volume terms, China's. steel output has actually been largely steady considering that 2019.

Production struck 996 million tons in 2019, before increasing to a. record 1.07 billion tons in 2020 and then easing to 1.03 billion. in 2021 and 1.01 billion in 2022.

To put it simply, because 2019 the gap between the weakest year. and the strongest for steel output was a mere 74 million tons,. and recently the space has actually been even smaller.

Basically China's steel production has actually flatlined, and. while this isn't a bullish story, it's far from the bearish. story that is the existing market consensus.

EXPORTS, INVENTORIES

What has moved slightly is that China is exporting more. steel products, with 101.15 million loads being shipped out in. the first 11 months of 2024, a gain of 22.6% from the very same. duration in 2015.

Presuming December steel product exports are mainly in line. with November, that implies overall exports for the year are most likely. to be around 110 million lots.

This would be about 22% greater than the 90.26 million loads. exported in 2023, however in volume terms it is only about 20. million loads more, or about 2% of China's total steel. production.

China's steel inventories are also not rising, implying the. bulk of steel being produced is actually being taken in.

Rebar stocks << SH-TOT-RBARINV > monitored by specialists. SteelHome dropped to 3.05 million tons in the week to Dec. 13,. down from 3.10 million the previous week, and likewise listed below the. 3.51 million from the very same week in 2023.

Another indication that China's steel sector isn't performing. badly is that iron ore imports and prices remain robust.

Imports of iron ore, the crucial steel raw material, were 1.124. billion tons in the very first 11 months of 2024, up 4.3% from the. very same period in 2023.

Steel mills have actually raised iron ore purchases as the rate. trended weaker over 2024, with the Singapore Exchange agreement. having actually dropped from a peak of $143.60 a load on Jan. 4. to a low of $91.10 on Sept. 10, before recovering to end at. $ 105.66 on Monday.

The total photo from China's steel sector is that modest. iron ore rates are supporting imports, and steel production is. holding up despite concerns over a weak home. sector.

The views revealed here are those of the author, a columnist. .

(source: Reuters)