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ASML's MORNING BID EUROPE - Big Blue's bad Day raises the bar
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The AI rally is experiencing some speed wobbles as Europe's?valuable? company and top supplier of chip making equipment?reports Wednesday. ASML is the only manufacturer of the lithography machines that cost $300 million and are used to create the circuitry for cutting-edge chips. LSEG estimates show that it is expected to report an 8.8% increase in the second-quarter's net profit of 2.61 billion euro ($2.99 billion), on a revenue growth of 14% at 8.8 billion euro. Analysts also expect the company's revenue forecast for the full year to increase from 36 billion to $40 billion euros. IBM is the latest example of how AI is "upending business models" in software and computing, and how the markets can be fickle when it comes to picking winners and losers during the boom. IBM SHEDS? A QUARTER of its Value "Big Blue" claimed that it failed to keep up with the shift in corporate spending from software towards data-centre infrastructure. The market expected $3.02 for its adjusted earnings per share forecast, but IBM's projection of $2.93 was based on a revenue increase of only 1%. IBM shares fell by 25% as a result. South Korea's volatile KOSPI jumped 8% in Asia. A surprise slowdown in U.S. Inflation cooled bets on rate hikes and gave investors a good reason to smile. Brent crude futures remained above $85 per barrel but fell short of new peaks, as investors wait to see how long oil tankers will be unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Data revealed that?China’s economic growth slowed down to 4.3% in first half of the year, which was below expectations. There was still little reaction because the theme of "export strength and domestic weakening" is well-worn and because investors are hoping the slowdown will lead to a fiscal stimulus. Bank of Canada expected to keep interest rates the same on Wednesday. Markets could be affected by key developments on Wednesday * Earnings: ASML, BNY, Blackrock, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines * Economics: Eurozone industrial production, U.S. PPI * Bank of Canada holds rates at $1 = 0.8744 Euros (By Tom Westbrook, edited by Christopher Cushing).
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As hostilities in the Middle East worsen, oil prices are rising.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after?President Donald Trump reimposed his naval blockade against all Iranian ports and Tehran launched attacks on U.S. Infrastructure in the region. Brent futures rose?99 cents or 1.2% to $85.72 per barrel at 0400 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 64 cents or 0.8% to $79.98 per barrel. Tuesday, oil prices rose 2% to a new one-month high as attacks intensified a supply disruption along the Strait of Hormuz. This is where a fifth of all the world's liquefied gas and oil passed before the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. "While the physical market for oil is adequately supplied, a further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, or any additional'sanctions' on Iranian exports, could quickly tighten the market sentiment, and add more risk premiums," stated Priyanka?Sachdeva, a senior market?analyst with Phillip Nova. The U.S. military announced that early on Wednesday the U.S. began a new round of strikes to "continue degrading Iranian capability used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." Tehran has closed the Strait again after hostilities erupted between Iran and the U.S. last week. This has weakened a fragile ceasefire reached in June following several months of fighting. Trump said in a Fox News interview that aired on "Special Report With Bret Baier" Tuesday night, "I'll leave the energy targets until last but we'll ultimately hit energy targets". Iran's Army said that early on Wednesday it had launched drone strikes against U.S. positions at Jordan's Azraq Base. Pentagon has not yet responded to the report. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that they had targeted weapons and storage in Bahrain? and Kuwait. Could not verify the reports immediately. The recent flare-up has raised doubts about whether a memorandum signed last month will lead to an end to the war that has enveloped Iran's neighbours. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that Brent prices could remain between $75 and $80 per barrel if diplomatic efforts were made to reopen the Strait. "For now, the risk premium is still there, but it's no one-way bet, given that both sides have incentives to find a diplomatic resolution." Helen Clark reported from Perth, and Jeslyn Lerh from Singapore. Editing was done by Lincoln Feast and Thomas Derpinghaus.
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Malaysia: Higher energy prices will support subsidies
Malaysia announced on Wednesday that higher global energy prices have boosted its petroleum revenue enough to cover part of the rising costs for 'fuel subsidies. This has eased pressure on the government's finances. The government said that it may spend as much as 40 billion ringgits ($9.83 billion), far more than the 15 billion ringgits initially allocated?in the budget for 2026, on fuel subsidies in 2019. This is due to higher energy prices related to the Middle East conflict. * Each $1 change in crude oil prices is estimated to affect federal petroleum revenues by?about 300 million ringgit, not including the dividends paid to Petronas. Liew Chin-Tong, Deputy Minister of Finance, told the parliament. This?increased revenue can offset some of this additional pressure on fuel subsidy spending. "The government monitors'revenue -collection regularly to ensure that it can meet federal operating expenses,"?Liew added. Liew stated that if necessary, a review of the fiscal targets for 2026 will be announced as part of 'the federal budget next year', which is due to be presented to parliament in October.
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Asian stocks benefit from the drop in US inflation rate
Stock markets in Asia rallied Wednesday, after a surprising slowdown in U.S. Inflation lowered expectations for interest rate increases. Meanwhile, oil prices took a break as the U.S. canceled a plan to levy shipping across the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea's volatile KOSPI Index surged by 7% before the next test of the AI rally. Earnings are due from ASML, Europe's largest company and world's leading supplier of equipment to make AI chips. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1%, while the MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 2.4%. IBM's stock price dropped by 25% overnight after its?revenue estimate missed analyst expectations. This shows how stretched the rally for AI-related stocks is. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and U.S. Futures all rose on Tuesday, thanks to the stellar profit made by Wall Street banks. The U.S. Dollar was lower in terms of currencies, except against the stubbornly low yen. Short-term bonds also rallied. Two-year Treasury yields fell 11 basis points, to 4.19%, from a 17-month high near 4.3% on Tuesday. In the U.S., the headline consumer price index fell by 0.4% in June. This was its first drop since COVID-19. Core inflation, however, rose to 2.6% annually, versus expectations of 2.8%. In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan analysts stated that "for market bulls, this is even better than Goldilocks would have imagined." "Inflation is lower when earnings are growing positively. This should ease any concerns about a rate hike in July and could also calm fears for September. This allows the market to rise and broaden at the same time. The market price for the likelihood of an interest rate increase in July has been halved, to 16%. CHINA GROWTH MIS Official data released on Wednesday showed that China's economic growth had slowed to just 4.3% for the second quarter. This was below analysts' expectations due to weaker domestic demand, the oil shock caused by the war in the Middle East, and a lack of exports. Investors have a positive outlook on the Chinese retail sales rebounding in June, a relatively strong nominal GDP and the hope that authorities will respond. Woei Chen, economist at UOB, said: "I do not think they will be concerned?enough to?announce any big'stimulus. But it will be targeted. They are aware that the growth is only in the tech areas, whereas the overall economy continues to underperform." The yuan of China traded at an all-time high of 6.7635 per dollar. The euro was stable at $1.14, and the Australian Dollar held on to its 0.8% gain. Brent crude futures remained at $85.80 per barrel after gaining almost 13% on the back of a flare-up in Middle East conflict. U.S. president Donald Trump reimposed on Tuesday a naval blockade against Iranian ports and threatened to attack power plants and bridges if Iran did not resume negotiations with the United States in order to end their conflict. He also scrapped his plan for a 20 percent fee on shipping through Hormuz. BNY, Morgan Stanley and Johnson & Johnson report their earnings in the U.S. before the morning bell, and United Airlines reports after the market close. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Tom Westbrook)
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Copper prices rise as US inflation falls, boosting demand
Copper prices rose on Wednesday as lower than expected U.S. inflation supported demand and lifted sentiment, even though the Middle East crisis continued to weigh. The benchmark three-month 'copper contract on the London Metal Exchange? was up 0.05% to $13,650 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract was up 0.64% at 104,770 Yuan ($15480.89) per ton. Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer prices slowed down more than anticipated in June. This eased fears about higher interest rates and a possible slowdown of economic activity. Daniel Hynes said in a ANZ note that the fading?prospects for a rate increase boosted sentiment throughout the base metals industry. The U.S. Dollar slipped, boosting prices of commodities denominated in the greenback by making them more affordable for buyers who use other currencies. The market digested?economic data coming from China, the world's largest consumer. The GDP growth of the country slowed to a low not seen in 3.5 years, and missed forecasts. Yangshan Copper Premium The, which tracks the buying interest in China remained strong. It was trading at $90 per ton, its highest level since May 2025. Fighting continued between the U.S.A. and Iran. This undermined hopes for peace negotiations and affected the macroeconomic outlook. Aluminum edged up on LME, adding?0.33%. On SHFE it remained unchanged. Prices have been supported by a disruption in supply from the Middle East, which represents around 9% global capacity for aluminium smelting, as well as dwindling inventories. The consumers are also seeking out alternative sources of supply and purchasing larger shipments from China, who exported an unprecedented volume of unwrought aluminum and its products last month. Nickel rose 0.15%, tin 0.24% and zinc 0.35%. Zinc gained 0.53% on SHFE. Lead dropped 1.8%. Nickel slipped 0.29%. Tin rose 1.68%.
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Asian stocks benefit from the drop in US inflation rate
The Asian markets rose on Wednesday, after a surprise drop in U.S. consumer inflation reduced market expectations of interest rate increases. Oil prices also dipped as the U.S. canceled a plan to tax shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Investors also cheered the stellar earnings of Wall Street banks, though a 25% decline in IBM's stock price after the company missed its revenue forecast showed just how stretched the market has become. In early trading, South Korea's chipmaker heavy KOSPI soared 6% and Japan's Nikkei gained 0.4%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose by 1.7%. The U.S. Dollar fell in?currencies except for the stubbornly low yen. Short-end bonds rose, bringing two-year Treasury yields down to 4.19%, from a 17-month high near 4.3%. Annualised core inflation was 2.6%, compared to expectations of?2.8%. In a note to clients, J.P. Morgan analysts said: "For bulls on the market this is better than Goldilocks ever could have imagined." "Inflation is lower with positive earnings growth. This should ease any concerns about a rate hike in July and could also calm fears for September. This allows the market to rise and broaden at the same time. The market price for a U.S. rate hike in July has been halved from 36% to 16%. The Australian dollar, which was testing $0.70, held on to its 0.8% gain. Brent crude futures remained at $85.50 per barrel after gaining more than 12% in the past week due to a flare up of fighting in the Middle East. U.S. president Donald Trump reimposed on Tuesday a naval blocade of Iranian ports and threatened to strike power plants and bridges unless Iran resumes their negotiations to end the conflict. However, he canceled a plan to impose a 20% surcharge on shipping through Hormuz. Overnight, the Nasdaq rose 0.9% while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. U.S. Futures were slightly higher Wednesday. ASML's earnings, Europe's most valuable company and data on Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and gross domestic product will be the focus of 'Asian trade' before ASML's earnings, which is the world's largest supplier of AI chips. BNY, Johnson & Johnson, and Blackrock will report their earnings in the U.S. before the morning bell, and United Airlines, after the market close. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Tom Westbrook)
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Oil prices rise after US-Iran hostilities flare up again with attacks on energy targets
Oil prices rose Wednesday after President Donald Trump reimposed his?naval ban on all Iranian ports, and Iran launched a retaliatory strike on U.S. facilities in the region. Brent closed at its highest level since 'June 12' and West Texas Intermediate?at its best since june 15 for the second consecutive session. Both prices rose on Wednesday morning trade. Brent climbed $1.46 or 1.72% to $86.19 per barrel at 0029 GMT, while WTI rose $1.11 or 1.4% to $80.40. Oil prices rose 2% on Tuesday to an all-time high, as the supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz - where one-fifth of world oil and LNG transited before the start of the war - were intensified. The U.S. began a new round of strikes early on Wednesday to "continue degrading Iranian capability used to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz", the U.S. Military said. Tehran claims it has 'closed the Strait again after hostilities between Iran & the U.S. re-ignited last week, fraying a fragile?truce already reached in June following several months of fighting. Trump said in an interview with Fox News that aired on "Special Report With Bret Baier" Tuesday night, "I'll leave the energy targets until last but we'll ultimately hit energy targets". Early on Wednesday, the Iranian army announced that drones had been used to attack U.S. positions in Jordan's Azraq base. Pentagon has not yet responded to the report. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that they had targeted weapons and storage in Bahrain and Kuwait. ? The reports could not be verified immediately. The recent flare-up has raised doubts about whether a memorandum signed last month will lead to an end to the war that has engulfed Iran’s neighbors. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that Brent prices may remain at $75-$80 per barrel if diplomatic measures are successful in reopening the Strait. "For now, there is still a risk premium, but this is not a one way bet, as both sides are motivated to find a diplomatic resolution." (Reporting and editing by Helen Clark)
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Scientists study the glacier melting risk in Greenland
This week, an international team of 80 scientists and crew will embark on the RSS David Attenborough to sail for Greenland in order to determine whether the melting glaciers on the island could affect the climate and currents in the Atlantic Ocean. The mission, which will last five to six weeks, leaves Britain, after Western Europe and Britain experienced their warmest month of June on record. This caused power outages, closed schools, and increased deaths. Kelly Hogan, marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey, which is leading this mission, said in an interview aboard the vessel that the heatwaves in Europe and the UK in recent months had really made it clear how difficult it was for us to adjust to even small changes in climate. The expedition is a part of a PS20million project called GIANT – Greenland Ice Sheet to AtlaNtic Tipping Points - that aims to better understand the melting and breaking down of glaciers into the ocean, and their impact. Scientists worry that the melting of freshwater may disrupt a rotating ocean current system which regulates Europe's climate. This could lead to extreme weather conditions and higher sea levels. Matt Neill is a ship captain who has made several trips to Antarctica, including his first as a cadet in 2011. He says he's seen first-hand the effects of climate change. "Lots are of glaciers all?receding extremely quickly and more than you think." He said that it is more important now than ever to collect data and improve models during these dynamic times. BOATY MBOATFACE Officially, the ship was named after veteran naturalist Attenborough. But to many Britons, it will forever be "Boaty McBoatface" after this suggestion won a 2016 public poll. Named instead for a high-tech submersible that will be on the vessel, it will dive to 1500 meters below the glacier mixture - a mix of sea ice & snow that forms where the glacier meets the sea. It will map its geometry and how it affects the glacier. Sam Smith, an operations engineer with the National Oceanography Centre said that it would be collecting data never before collected. The data collected will be used to create next-generation climate model and a system of early warning for glacier failure.
Volunteers rush to save US Climate Data from Trump's Purge
Shuttered Climate.gov reborn as Climate.us
The number of changes to federal websites has increased by 70% during the Trump administration
Nonprofit organizations working to protect data
By Carey L. Biron
Climate.gov was a huge repository of climate change research.
By May, her entire team was laid off. The site moved the following month to NOAA's Public Relations Department, ending its autonomy.
The NOAA has not responded to a comment request on the plans for this site.
Environmentalists claim that the Trump administration has made unprecedented changes to federal website, including a halt in data collection and hiding of existing data. This puts essential climate research at stake.
Lindsey stated, "It is as if federal science enterprise experienced a disaster."
Volunteers and non-profit organizations are racing to preserve the data, make them available to the public, and provide tools to allow others to use them.
Lindsey, her team of unpaid volunteer workers and others are rebuilding Climate.gov into Climate.us.
This month, they restored access to the most recent National Climate Assessment, which was taken off-line in July. They also restored content that had been removed due to the new policies of the administration on diversity and equality. By the end of this year, they hope to publish new content and update existing material.
DATA FIRE DRILL
According to the Environmental Data & Governance Initiative's (EDGI) monitoring of selected federal websites, in the first half this year the administration made 70 percent more changes online than it did during Trump's first term.
Monitors report that entire federal websites, such as Globalchange.gov which hosted the nation's climate assessments and government-run tools to map communities burdened by pollution, have been removed.
Some sites have been modified to remove or complicate access to material relating to diversity, inclusion or equity.
They fear that the U.S. government, which has traditionally played a large role in research, will undermine policymaking, community input, and global understanding of climate changes.
Brittany Janis is the executive director of Open Environmental Data Project, a non-profit organization. She said that work to protect U.S. Environmental Data began as soon as Trump was elected in November.
She said that one result of the project was Public Environmental Data Partners. This group brings together several hundred volunteers and non-profit organizations in order to preserve climate data, and recreate tools which have been removed.
Members can track the federal websites that are changing, being moved or removed completely.
She said that within the first 24 hour of Trump's inauguration all federal websites had been stripped of anything related to environmental justice. The coalition is working to restore these tools.
What surprised us was how quickly everything happened. "We knew things would go down, but not how fast," said Janis. She compared the initial months to a drill.
We have many connections in these agencies. So we would get whistleblowers telling us, "We know something is going to happen. We have noticed that this is going to go down. You better go and ensure you get it."
The volunteers and engineers then download the databases and metadata, and upload the information to servers that are not owned by government.
'DEMOCRATIZING ACCESS'
EDGI reported in October that the federal government appears to be focusing more on climate data in recent months. It cited the removal of Environmental Protection Agency pages Implications of Climate Change & Underlying Science for Climate Change Adaptation. EDGI monitors approximately 5,000 federal websites.
Izzy Pacenza is the project coordinator for EDGI. She said that these changes are a cause for concern, especially in light of proposed federal regulations, which have been opened for public comments.
"We're not collecting this information for people with a particular skill set. She said that the information is for the public to weigh in on.
Some groups have also taken up the challenge to collect, improve or produce data in the vacuum left by the federal government.
The National Equity Atlas, which has been in existence for over a decade, tracks dozens of indicators such as income inequality, home ownership and other factors that are derived from public data, but is often difficult to obtain or understand.
"We are democratizing the access to this data," said Selena Tan. She is a senior research associate at PolicyLink, an institute of research that manages the atlas in conjunction with the University of Southern California.
Four new indicators have been added to the Atlas, which tracks urban tree canopy, exposure to lead, toxic flooding risks, and urban heat effects.
(source: Reuters)