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MORNING BID EUROPE - Shipping oil becomes more difficult and expensive
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Brent oil is now back at $107 a barrel as the Houthis are closing in on Bab el-Mandeb. This is the second key route for oil exports from the Middle East. Ship tracking sites indicate that vessels continue to use the narrow waterway near the southern 'entrance to the Red Sea. However, the Houthis have reportedly warned them they will strike Saudi Arabian vessels if they try to pass. The Suez Canal is still open to tankers to reach Asian markets. However, the journey will take 22 days and cost a lot more in fuel and hiring. Last week, tanker rates reached record levels, and bunker fuel was in short supply. This increased the cost of shipping. Around 80% the world's commerce is transported by ships. Drone attacks from Iraq also targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, which was carrying between 4 and 5 million barrels per day. The postponement of a Monday meeting between Iran, other Persian Gulf countries and the United States to discuss a safe route through the Strait further disappointed. This?left Brent at $107.81 per barrel, while U.S. crude rose 2.9% to $102.94. Federal Reserve doesn't want prices to remain high. The markets are now priced at 86% for a 25 basis point hike on Wednesday. This would be the first increase since mid-2023. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are among the major U.S. Investment Houses that switched their stance to a rate hike on Friday. Even Citi, which had long called for a rate cut, now admits one is likely to happen this week. Investors view this as a test for the credibility of the Fed under Chairman Kevin Warsh. However, it is likely to anger President Trump, who continues to make his novel argument that the U.S. has the lowest interest rates in the entire world. The concern over inflation is so great that even if the Fed keeps rates steady, longer-dated bonds will likely continue to yield more. In fact, the 10-year bond is already a hair away from the psychological barrier of 5.0%. If the Fed decides to hike rates, then the focus will shift to the dot plots in order to determine the likelihood of future moves. Warsh's press conference is also likely to be a focal point. Futures prices are pricing around 90 basis point? of tightening in the second half of next year. Markets suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates on Friday by 25 basis points, to 1.25%. They also sound hawkish about a?further tightening of the currency. Markets indicate that the Bank of England will meet on Thursday, and there is only a 25% chance of an increase. However, it's likely to be split decision. Even OpenAI CEO?Sam Altman warned that AI may cause the extinction of humans by the end of this decade. SoftBank, a major loser in Japan and South Korea's tech share market, was blamed on the mounting political pressure to slow down work on AI. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact ECB Board Members Isabel Schnabel Piero Cipollone Pedro Machado and Christine Lagarde will be making appearances.
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Nikkei reports that Chubu Electric's president will resign after nuclear data scandal
Nikkei reported that the president of Japan's?Chubu?Electric?Power is expected to resign following a?finding?that the firm?had?falsified?seismic?data in its application for restarting the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant. The paper reported that Chubu would withdraw its request to restart two nuclear units at the?plant. Chubu's Hamaoka nuclear plant in central Japan was undergoing a safety assessment in order to restart its reactors. Japan's nuclear regulator had suspended an investigation following the data scandal. On Monday, Chubu released its investigatory report. The incident could derail Japan’s efforts to restart its nuclear reactors. All 54 were shut down in 2011 after the Fukushima earthquake. In the first half of this year, Tokyo Electric Power restarted Kashiwazaki Kariwa, which is the largest nuclear power station in the world. The Nikkei reported that the resignations of Kingo Hayashi, President and Chairman of Chubu Electric, as well as Minoru Yasui who is currently an executive director, will be announced Monday. Separately Chubu?said that it altered documents submitted to Japan’s nuclear?decommissioning funds manager in relation to the No. 1 ?and No. There are 2 plants being demolished at Hamaoka.
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As oil prices rise and rate hikes loom, shares in Asia plummet
On Monday, the Asian share markets fell as supply concerns caused oil to spike again. Investors braced themselves for interest rate hikes this week in both Japan and the United States. Brent oil prices rose 3% after new attacks on Saudi Arabia, and on ships in the Gulf. This came as nerves were tested following an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil pipelines and the Houthis' advance into Yemen. The meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab States, which was scheduled to take place in Oman on Monday, for the purpose of discussing a deal about opening the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed. Analysts fear that oil prices will remain high for a long time, causing inflation worldwide. A report showing an uncomfortably high U.S. consumer price index on Friday prompted the markets to estimate that 86% of the time, Federal Reserve rates will be raised by 25 basis points by Wednesday and again by December. This would be the first rate hike since mid-2023. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, said: "We expect the Fed will hike twice this fiscal year, in September, and in December." At this stage, failing words with actions could put the institution's credibility at risk. He added that the data will determine whether these actions are a recalibration of sorts or a start to a longer-term hiking cycle. "We expect the first scenario, but we see risks in the second." Brent futures rose last 2.6% to $107.36 per barrel after gaining almost?9% the previous week. U.S. crude oil rose 2.4% at $102.48 a barrel. South Korea's Nikkei dropped by 3.3%, while Japan's Nikkei declined by 1.7%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.8%. In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures dropped 0.5%. DAX Futures declined 0.4%, and FTSE Futures fell by 0.1%. S&P futures on Wall Street fell 0.5% while Nasdaq's futures dropped 1.1%. High Yields Test Evaluated Equities The yields on 10-year Treasury bills were slightly lower, at 4,967%. They had been heavily sold in recent weeks. In just one week, the yields on 2-year Treasury notes rose by 26 basis points. The yields on 10-year Treasury notes also increased by 19 basis points. Ben Snider is the chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs. He said that strong corporate earnings will support Wall Street in case borrowing costs increase. He added: "Equity prices tend to fall when the Fed begins to raise rates, but we expect the bull to continue." "The S&P 500 generated an average return of -2.2% over a three-month period at the beginning of seven hike cycles in the past few decades." "Yet, the S&P 500 generated an average return +9% over the 12-month period following the first increase." The markets also suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to increase its cash rate on Friday by a quarter-point, or 1.25%. BOJ will also be expected to sound more hawkish about further tightening, as it tries to prevent the yen from falling back to its 40-year low after it was helped by market intervention. The dollar held steady at 153.49?yen after falling around 4% in the past two weeks and moving away from its July high of 163.99?yen. The euro was also not much changed at $1.1592, after finding support at $1.1570 last Friday. The pound was unchanged at $1.3522, with the Bank of England likely to keep its rate at 3.75% Thursday. However, the decision may be divided again. Gold fell 0.3% on the commodity market to $4,336 per ounce, as bond yields increased, reducing the appeal of gold, which does not pay interest.
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As oil prices rise and rate hikes are looming, shares in Asia fall.
On Monday, Asian share markets fell as oil prices spiked again due to supply concerns. Investors were also bracing for interest rate hikes this week in the U.S. and Japan. Brent rose 3% as new strikes against Saudi Arabia and?ships?in the Gulf tested nerves. This was after an attack on Saudi oil pipelines and an advance of Yemen's Houthis, which threatened to worsen wartime disruptions to global energy supply. The meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab States, which was scheduled to take place in Oman on Monday, for the purpose of discussing a deal regarding opening the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed. Analysts fear that oil prices will remain high for a long time, causing inflation worldwide. The markets have priced in 86% of the chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis point on Wednesday and again by December. This would be the first rate hike since mid-2023. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economics, said: "We expect the Fed will hike twice this calendar year, in December and September." At this stage, if the institution does not follow up its words with actions, it could be at risk. He added that the data will determine whether these actions are a recalibration of sorts or a sign of a new, more consistent hiking cycle. "We expect the first scenario, but we see risks for the second." Brent futures rose?3.1% to $107.84 per barrel after gaining almost 9% the previous week. U.S. crude oil rose 2.8%, reaching $102.85 per barrel. Nikkei Futures fell 2% to 63,260 compared to a close in cash of 64,011. S&P futures on Wall Street fell 0.5% while Nasdaq's futures dropped 1.0%. High Yields Test Evaluated Equities Treasury futures firmed up a bit in early trading after being heavily sold in recent weeks. Last week, the 2-year yields jumped 26 basis points in a single week. The 10-year yields also rose 19 basis points. Ben Snider is the chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs. He said that strong corporate earnings will support Wall Street in case borrowing costs increase. He added that "stocks typically suffer when the Fed begins to raise rates, but we anticipate the bull market?to continue." "The S&P 500 generated an average return of -2.2% over a three-month period at the beginning of seven hike cycles in the past few decades." "Yet, the S&P 500 generated an average return +9% in the 12 months after the first hike." The markets also suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise its cash rate by a quarter-point, or 1.25% when it meets this Friday. BOJ will also be expected to sound "hawkish" on tightening further as it struggles against a relapse of the yen following market intervention that helped it recover from a low for 40 years. The dollar held steady at 153.77yen after falling 'around 4% in the last two week? and away from its July peak of 163.99. The euro is also little changed, at $1.1600. It was $1.1570 last Friday. The pound was unchanged at $1.3518, with the Bank of England likely to keep its rate at 3.75% Thursday. However, the decision may be divided again. Gold fell 0.3% on the commodity market to $4,336 per ounce, as bond yields increased, reducing the appeal of gold, which does not pay interest.
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Oil prices rise by more than $3 following new attacks on Saudi Arabia Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices increased by more than $3 per barrel at Monday's market opening, following new strikes on Saudi Arabia and on ships in the Gulf on Sunday. Brent crude futures increased by $3.62 or 3.46% to $108.23 per barrel as of 2214 GMT on Sunday. WTI futures increased $3.15 or 3.15% to $103.20 a barrel. Saudi Arabian media released footage on Sunday showing damage to homes and mosques from an attack they said was carried out by the Houthis in southern Jazan Province. The Houthis claimed they also attacked a Saudi military base in a neighboring province. The British maritime security agency UKMTO reported on Sunday that a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz had been struck by a stray projectile. This caused a fire, forcing the crew to evacuate the vessel. Iran reported that four members of the crew were injured and one person killed aboard a commercial vessel which was struck off its coast. The oil prices were expected to increase on Monday due to growing concerns over the supply of oil from Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world. Last week, an Iraqi drone struck and shut down its East-West pipeline, cutting off oil supplies to Saudi Arabia. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that unless the talks this week in Oman result in something operational -?or if the East-West Pipeline is brought online quickly - crude oil could continue to?expand its gains towards the $119.48 peak of?early march," he wrote in a Sunday note. Omani Foreign minister?Badr albusaidi stated on X?later Sunday that the scheduled meeting between Gulf countries, Iran and Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz on Monday had been postponed.
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Swedish election in dead heat as voters question liberal traditions
The results of the national elections in Sweden were deadlocked on Sunday. A partial count by the?election authority indicated a one-seat majority for?the centre-left opposition bloc, which could stop Sweden's 'drift' away from its liberal heritage. According to the Swedish election authority, the bloc headed by Social Democrats party leader Magdalena Andersson was expected win 175 of the 349 seats in the Riksdag based on votes cast from 4,853 out of 6,312 districts. As the ballot counting continues, it appears that Prime Minister Ulf Kritersson's right-wing bloc has won 174 seats. While the election is unlikely to alter Sweden's pro Western and pro Ukraine stance, it will determine whether Kristersson continues his push for a hard right clampdown on immigration. The winner of this race may not be known until several days after the overseas votes have been counted. Kristersson, in a pre-election promise, broke a long-standing taboo by saying he would bring the Sweden Democrats into government, a far right party with Nazi roots, to form a majority-right alliance. Right-wing voters say that a victory would be a vote in favor of policies which have reduced immigration and gang violence. Some Swedes are wary, stating that Kristersson's invitation of the extreme right is a step too much. Maria Malmer Stenergard is a member Kristersson’s Moderate Party and the Minister for Foreign Affairs. She said: "I believe it will be a long evening." "Maybe the results won't be known until Wednesday, when overseas votes arrive." Kristersson had gained ground in the last weeks of campaigning after he fell behind in polls for his entire four-year tenure. Andersson's Social Democrats were losing ground. Critics claim that the Kristersson government’s immigration policies undermine civil liberties by imposing incentives and penalties on migrants to either conform to Swedish cultural norms, or leave the country. The far-right parties in Europe would welcome the Sweden Democrats' electoral success, especially after the victory of the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany at a German state elections last week. The National Rally, which is a far-right party in France, hopes to gain the presidency of France next year. 'DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SWEDEN Jimmie Akesson, long-time leader of the Sweden Democrats, said that the suburb in Rinkeby near Stockholm "doesn’t look like Sweden" because it is home to the largest Swedish-Somali population. Kristersson took power in Sweden?four years back. Sweden had been one of Europe's most tolerant countries towards immigrants for many years. His government abolished the permanent?residency of refugees, tightened welfare regulations and increased expulsions for those without a legal right to remain. The Sweden Democrats admit that they were founded by neo Nazis and white supremacists during the 1980s. However, they claim to have removed these extremists and apologized for their past. After an updated projection by Swedish broadcaster SVT, the party of Sweden's Democrats was greeted with cheers after an exit poll had shown a much smaller gap than the initial one. The original exit poll had placed the centre-left opponents ahead with 51%. You cannot imagine how nervous I am at the moment. "I feel like my life's work hangs in the balance," Ludvig Aspiling, a member of parliament and immigration spokeswoman for the Sweden Democrats. It's going to be a very tight race. He said, "We still have a shot."
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Trump tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy to stop hitting Russian diesel
U.S. President Donald?Trump called on Ukrainian president Volodymyr?Zelenskiy on Sunday to stop attacking Russian diesel infrastructure. He said the attacks are causing a fuel shortage that "hurts the world". In recent months, long-distance Ukrainian?drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have reduced the country's fuel production. This has led to gasoline shortages in all of Russia. Ukraine, which is regularly attacked by Russia on its own energy infrastructure says that refineries are legitimate targets. According to GasBuddy, the U.S. average price of?diesel - used in trucks, trains and ships, as well as farm equipment - rose above $6 per gallon on Thursday for the first ever time. Trump said to journalists that Zelenskiy must stop knocking down diesel fuel in Russia. This was during his visit to the Irish Open in west Ireland, which is held on a course owned by Trump's family. "We spoke to Mr. Zelenskiy. There are a number of other targets. ?Don't hit diesel fuel. He said, "That's bad for the world." Trump said that the global shortage is not caused by the Middle East but by Russia and Ukraine. According to a draft government forecast, the war has caused Russia to reduce its oil production forecast for this year to a 17-year-low and to revise its fuel exports forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
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Russian nuclear head says Ukraine attacked fuel trucks, endangered Zaporizhzhia plant
The head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation, accused Ukraine on Sunday of attacking diesel fuel truck and killing two Russian servicemen. He also said that Ukraine was deliberately compromising safety at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine. Alexei Likhachev stated that 'the attack took place on Friday, and resulted in other Russian soldiers being injured. In the first weeks of the Ukraine War that erupted in February 2022, Russian forces seized the Zaporizhzhia Plant, Europe's biggest with six reactors. Both sides have accused each other of taking actions that "endanger the safety of the plant" and increase the likelihood of a nuclear disaster. Likhachev?issued a?statement saying Ukrainian forces launched "a number of combined strikes" Friday against fuel trucks that?deliver Diesel to the station. He said that the strikes were very close to the station's perimeter. Two servicemen died, and many Russian soldiers, some of them seriously, were injured. All of them were involved in supporting a purely civil mission. Diesel generators are vital for the plant, as they provide the power needed to cool the nuclear fuel in the reactors when the two external power lines of the plant go down. Both links were down for almost a three-week period in August and Septembre. Moscow has rejected the Ukraine's demand that Russia abandon the station and return its operation to Kyiv. Currently, the fuel?generates zero electricity. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, has permanently stationed a team of observers at the station along with Ukraine’s three other working plants. The agency has "repeatedly" acted as an 'intermediary? when disputes arise. Last month, it helped to arrange a local truce in order for repairs to be carried out and external power connections restored.
SPECIAL RELEASE-A plot from the Assad era to hide Syria's dead has turned the desert into a mass burial
The stench of death was evident along the Syrian highway for four nights per week, nearly two years. It was the smell that thousands of bodies were being transported from one secret location to another mass grave.
It was forbidden for drivers to leave their cars. The mechanics and bulldozer drivers were ordered to remain silent and warned that they would pay with their life if they spoke out. The only way to receive orders for "Operation Move Earth", was verbally. The transfer was orchestrated primarily by a Syrian colonel who spent nearly ten years burying the dead of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.
The transfer order came directly from the presidential palace. The colonel known as Assad’s “master of cleansing” directed the operation between 2019 and 2021.
The first grave
Qutayfah in Damascus's area contained trenches filled to the brim with remains of those who died under interrogation, in prison.
during battle. Human rights activists had exposed the existence of this mass grave during the civil conflict and it was considered to be one of Syria's biggest.
A recent investigation found that the Assad regime secretly manipulated elections.
Excavation of the Qutayfah Site
The bodies were transported by truck to a military base in the Dhumair Desert, more than an hours drive away.
Exclusive report published on Tuesday
The second mass grave and clandestine reburial plan were revealed. Now, we can reveal in detail how the perpetrators of this conspiracy carried it out and kept it secret for six long years.
We spoke with 13 people who had direct knowledge of the 2-year effort to move bodies, and we analyzed over 500 satellite images taken of both mass graves.
Over a decade
The excavations revealed not only the creation of the Qutayfah tomb, but also the expansion of the site as the burial trenches were opened and dug up.
The use of aerial drone photography was used to confirm the transference of bodies. The news agency took drone and ground photographs of both sites under the guidance of forensic scientists to create composite high-resolution images. The drone photos at Dhumair showed that the disturbed soil near the burial trenches were darker and more reddish than the nearby undisturbed soil. This is what would have been expected if Qutayfah subsoil was added to Dhumair soil, according to Lorna and Benjamin Rocke.
Syria
Mass graves are scattered throughout the area
The secret site discovered was one of the largest ever known. The grave near Dhumair, a desert town in the middle of the country, is one of the largest ever created. It has at least 34 trenches that total 2 kilometers. The new grave site is large enough to accommodate tens or even hundreds of thousands of people, according to witness accounts and the size of the area.
Reduce the chances of intruders tampering
The site must not be revealed to the public before it can protected.
The new National Commission for Missing Persons of the Government said that after the first story, it had requested the Interior Ministry seal and protect Dhumair. The commission said that the transfer of bodies haphazardly to Dhumair could make it more difficult for victims to be identified.
The commission stated that "each family of a lost person is faced with a unique set of problems, which are intertwined in scientific complexity and could make the identification process a long and expensive technical project."
According to witnesses, for four nights, almost every week, six or eight trucks were filled with maggots, human remains, and dirt. According to witnesses, the stench clung on the clothes and hairs of everyone involved. This included two truckers and three mechanics as well as a bulldozer driver, a former Republican Guard officer and a former member of Assad's elite Republican Guard.
Former Republican Guard officer said that the idea of moving thousands of bodies was born in late 2018 when Assad seemed to be winning Syria's civil conflict. The dictator hoped to gain international recognition after years of sanctions.
Allegations of brutality
The officer replied.
Assad was accused at the time of holding thousands of Syrians in detention. No independent Syrian groups, or international organizations, had access to either the prisons or mass graves.
The officer reported that Assad received assurances from Russian intelligence in 2018 during a meeting to ensure his isolation was ended. The Russians told the dictator to conceal evidence of widespread violations of human rights. "M
He said that the most notable examples were mass graves and chemical attacks, as well as arrests.
The officer and two truckers were told that the purpose of the transfer of goods was to remove the mass grave at Qutayfah and conceal evidence of mass murders.
Satellite images from 2012 showed the first trench in Qutayfah. Human rights activist in Syria
Qutayfah exposed
By releasing photos in 2014 to local media, revealing its existence and general location near Damascus's outskirts, the group accused Assad for using the site to hide the sheer number of people who were killed under his rule. The grave's exact location was revealed a few decades later.
In court testimony
Other media reports
By the time Assad fell
All 16 trenches described by, however, had been completely emptied.
The Russian foreign intelligence service refused to comment and a Assad legal advisor did not respond when asked to comment on the findings.
According to reports, more than 160,000 people were believed to have disappeared into the vast security apparatus of the former dictator and to be buried within the dozens mass graves that he had created.
Syrian Rights Groups
According to the government, the number of missing people since 1970 when the Assad family began ruling the country is estimated at 300,000.
Organised excavation and DNA analyses could help track what happened to these people, alleviating one of Syria's worst faultlines.
With few resources, Syria's well-known mass burials remain largely unexcavated and unprotected. The country's newly elected leaders, who ousted Assad in
In spite of the fact that December has passed, no documentation was released for any of these.
Families of missing persons have repeatedly called to express their concern.
According to the National Commission for Missing People, this is because many records were destroyed or lost and that even well-known sites such as Qutayfah have huge gaps in their data.
They said there are plans to create an DNA bank and a central digital platform for the families of missing people, but that there were not enough experts in forensic medicine or DNA testing.
Court testimony and dozens signed documents showing command chain from deathbeds in prison to morgues were reviewed. Many of these documents bore the stamp of the same Colonel who was responsible for the two mass grave sites: Col. MazenIsmandar.
All those interviewed involved in the transfer bodies remembered nights spent working for Ismandar.
Ahmed Ghazal is a mechanic who described how soldiers would order him to clean out his garage at night so that the trucks could be repaired quickly and out-of-sight. Ghazal said he did not believe the initial explanation that the smell was due to expired medicines and chemicals.
The first time he saw the corpses was when he got into the truck bed to do a job. Ghazal was curious after an rotting hand fell onto one of his trainees. He approached a military driver to find out where the bodies came from. The driver informed him that they were from Qutayfah and that orders had been given to move them so Syria would not be exposed to international scrutiny.
Ghazal described in a deep, methodical voice the events that he had witnessed at the Dhumair site. He said that he did not speak out at the time.
To talk, he said, "means death. You could be the next victim of what happened to those buried in this graveyard just by talking.
I also spoke with the driver, who remembered his conversation Ghazal. He said Col. Ismandar had warned them they would be punished if they spoke about what they saw.
Ismandar, when contacted through intermediaries by the media, declined to comment.
If I had been able act freely, I would not have taken this position. "I am a servant of the orders, I'm a slave to orders," said the driver. "I was overcome with fear, horrible smells and guilt."
He said that he wore cologne when he returned home at dawn.
"THE MASTER CLEANSING"
As the opposition to Assad's regime deteriorated in 2012 into civil war, Qutayfah was one of the only places firmly under the control of the government. Anwar Haj Khali, former head of the City Council, explained that the people who found the bodies during the initial days of fighting brought them to a military base in the area.
In 2013, trucks were bringing bodies from hospitals, prisons and battlefields. According to Haj Khalil, a former brigadier-general in the Syrian Army’s 3rd Division who coordinated burial logistics, there were so many bodies that two government owned food distributors, meatpackers, and another company which distributed fruit and vegetables, redirected the refrigerated truck to transport the dead to Qutayfah. Like many others involved in the conspiracy he requested anonymity when describing how it worked.
Haj Khalil who lives in the region said that no one wanted to be responsible for burying these bodies.
They needed someone to oversee operations and the location. Ismandar started playing this role in 2012, according multiple witnesses and testimony at court. According to the officer of the 3rd Division, he was introduced to crew members as "masters of cleaning operations" by the division.
According to documents from 2018, bearing his signature and reviewed by, Ismandar was the budget manager of the Syrian military Medical Services. This unit was one the most powerful government agencies, controlling medical care of soldiers, anyone who went to military hospitals and thousands of prisoners.
Haj Khalil, the brigadier-general and Ismandar both confirmed that they had jointly decided on a plot of land controlled by the military at Qutayfah.
In the beginning, the bodies were brought in by a few dozen from two hospitals nearby. Haj Khalil reported that the shrouds were inscribed with names. He said that after a few weeks, he became accustomed to receiving calls at midnight from Ismandar to dispose of the bodies from Tishreen Hospital, outside Damascus. Haj Khalil would be called by another officer to dispose of bodies from the
notorious Sednaya Prison
"Ismandar told me that the refrigerator trucks were heading your way. Haj Khalil replied, "Tell the bulldozer that we will be at the site within a half hour."
According to a bulldozer driver who began working at Qutayfah in 2014, initially, all of the bodies from Tishreen were blindfolded and their hands were bound with plastic strips. He stated that the bodies from Tishreen were first placed in body bags and then nylon bags. Finally, they arrived without any bags. The operator said that nearly all of the men were naked. He recalled hearing his phone ring at 2 am with instructions to begin digging.
The bulldozer driver said that the early trenches dug up by the army, were too shallow. "They were partly the reason why I was called," he said. The soil was a mixture of gravel and small stones. This caused the smell to spread quickly.
He claimed to have dug trenches between 75 and 90 m long, 4 m wide and up to 4 meter deep. Satellite imagery analysis shows that his account is in line with satellite images taken in 2013 as trench digging started in earnest. The images show shallow trenches followed by deeper and longer gashes on the ground in 2014.
The bulldozer driver said, "I was unable to sleep or eat during the first two weeks due to the horror I witnessed." "But then, I snapped out of it."
Ismandar kept a logbook detailing the number and security branch of the bodies that arrived.
The sworn statement
In German and U.S. court cases involving accusations of torture against the Assad regime, a gravedigger by the name Mohammed Afif Naifa was cited. Naifa testified to a German court he coordinated burials for political prisoners from 2011 until 2017 with Ismandar. Naifa's testimony, which referred to Qutayfah, but did not touch on Dhumair declined to be interviewed.
He said that the number of bodies in the logbooks was undercounted. He said that the victims included infants and children.
Naifa, who testified 2024 at a hearing in A, said that the system of undercounting was how the regime buried and disappeared so many more than they had recorded.
U.S. civil suit
A torture victim brought a lawsuit against the Assad regime.
Ismandar was mentioned 73 times in the thousands of documents found and photographed at a military forensics lab that had been abandoned by Ahmed al-Sharaa's forces, now Syria's President, during a December visit.
Damascus is swept to the top
. Documents from 2018 and 2019, which track the way prisoners were transported to Tishreen Military Hospital, and then to Harsta Military Hospital after their death, are stamped with Ismandar’s name. The documents do not mention mass graves.
The analysis of aerial drone and satellite photography revealed that 16 burial trenches with a combined length of over 1.2 kilometers were dug in Qutayfah from at least 2013 to 2018.
Local roads were shut down when the trucks drove into the graveyard. According to the officer of the 3rd Division who accompanied the convoy, in 2014, a truck broke down on a highway, and everyone stopped en route to Qutayfah. Naifa also gave an account of the same incident.
The officer of the 3rd Division said that he received a furious phone call from Ismandar’s commanding general, Maj. Gen. Ammar Suliman: "Orders by Mr. President: block the international road until assistance arrives."
Suleiman was a top Syrian general and a member of Assad's inner circle of trusted confidants. He was Ismandar’s direct commander and led the Military Medical Services. Naifa and a commander from the National Defense, a group of paramilitaries that reports directly to Assad was involved in Syria’s most sensitive security missions.
Suleiman didn't respond to an inquiry for comment.
There was no documentation containing direct instructions from Assad regarding mass graves or Operation Move Earth. The Republican Guard officer and National Defense commander both said that it was impossible to believe that Assad had not ordered it.
The National Defense commander said, "I challenge anyone to find any documents issued in Bashar Al-Assad's honor." He knew the day of reckoning was coming, and wanted to keep clean his hands.
Haj Khalil (former council chief) estimated that Qutayfah had between 60,000 and 80,000 people dead at the end of 2018 based on the pace in which the deliveries were made during those years. According to satellite imagery, that's when trench digging ceased.
Then, with the assistance of
Russia and Iran
Assad is widely regarded as the winner of the civil war. He had still lost control of much northern Syria to al-Sharaa Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Kurdish forces who both carved out autonomous areas.
The Republican Guard officer said that on a late evening in 2018, Assad invited four chiefs of military and intelligence to the Presidential Palace to discuss the fate of the mass graves. The Republican Guard officer said that he worked at the palace and was one of a few people who saw the minutes.
The officer stated that the military intelligence chief Kamal Hassan came up with an idea to excavate the entire Qutayfah Mass Grave and move the contents elsewhere.
He said that "the idea seemed insane to most people who heard it but it was given the green light by Assad". He said that the main criteria for a new location was to be under military control.
The officer stated that Hassan, chief of military intelligence, ordered the weekly report to be sent to President's palace.
Hassan is believed not to be in Syria and could not be reached for a comment.
According to an officer, the former council chief Haj Khalil, and satellite imagery analysis, work began on a concrete barrier around Qutayfah in November 2018. Satellite images from February 2019 show the concrete wall that surrounds the mass grave. It was 3 meters tall and blocked all views of the mass grave from the ground.
In the Syrian desert early in February 2019, more than an hour from the city of Dhumair, the first trench appeared. The wind-swept base of the military near Dhumair, surrounded by mountains and protected by fences and berms, had a new operation underway.
OPERATION MOVE THE EARTH
According to Haj Khalil and the Republican Guard officer, the written orders stated that the mission was to deliver dirt and sand at a construction site. Ismandar, a clean-shaven man with graying hair gathered his drivers just minutes before the first day of work. The military driver explained that the bodies needed to be moved because the location of the mass grave at Qutayfah was exposed.
According to the Republican Guard officer, and the National Defense Officer, it was called Operation Move Earth.
"The first day, the instructions were that no one should carry or use a phone. "No one can leave the trucks while the bodies are being loaded or unloaded, under pain of death," stated one of the drivers. "Nobody would dare to violate the orders."
The driver reported that the truckers left Qutayfah at sunset and were not allowed to leave their cabs while loading. Ismandar was gesturing in his rearview mirror to tell him where to stop. The truck shook every time the bulldozer empty itself five or six times.
The Republican Guard officer who was directly involved in the project said that some skulls were decomposed, and others were fresh. There were many maggots. "Hundreds, if no thousands, of maggots were thrown into the truck with every dump from the bucket."
Ismandar ordered the vehicles to form a line, and they headed towards Dhumair. Six or eight dull orange Mercedes-Benz dump trucks followed the white van of the colonel.
A stench of overwhelming magnitude accompanied the convoy. The smell of the late night air was always the first thing drivers and mechanics mentioned when describing those late nights, which lasted four days a weeks, from February 2019 to April 2021. This excludes holidays, snowdays, and the four-month confinement in Syria.
According to a local who remembered the smell, after years of these trips, the payload of the trucks was a secret among people living in the vicinity. One of the drivers said, "Everyone saw" us.
It is impossible to estimate the number of bodies buried in Dhumair without excavation. A convoy of 6-8 trucks, making 4 trips per week, would mean a conservative estimate for 2,600 trips. Experts said that based on the size of trucks and this, it's reasonable to think that tens or even thousands of people may have been buried in Dhumair.
Satellite imagery revealed that by the end of Operation Move Earth, all 16 trenches in Qutayfah documented by satellite had been opened. Calculations show that Dhumair has 2 km of trenches. According to the drivers and mechanic, each trench was approximately 2 meters wide and three meters deep.
Reporters who visited the site in this year found human bones scattered all over the place, including a fragment that experts have identified as being a human skull.
Ghazal said that he saw the convoy often. The trucks were from the mid-1980s, and they had a tendency to malfunction.
He was able to distinguish two kinds of corpses that were headed to Dhumair from their periodic appearances in his garage. Some bodies were covered with soil and decomposed. Some bodies, such as young men and woman, appeared to have just died. Both his cousins who worked in the garage said they also saw freshly deceased bodies. Could not determine the source of the recently dead bodies.
Ghazal led his team to the location, which he recognized because he had been called there for an emergency repair on a truck.
He pointed to the desert and said: "There are people buried under the earth everywhere you look."
Ammar Al Selmo is a member of the White Helmets, an organization that finds and excavates mass graves.
The first person to report a mass grave in Dhumair was. He claimed that locals in Qutayfah had informed the White Helmets that the mass grave was empty, and a Dhumair witness reported the convoys containing bodies. Al Selmo stated the organization lacks staff and resources so it could not verify either claim.
He said that the White Helmets will be making an initial visit to the area in a few days after learning about'findings.
Analyzing hundreds of satellite photos taken over many years revealed a color shift on the Dhumair site. Even the most sophisticated commercial imagery lacks the resolution required to examine the soil in detail.
Then, we set out to capture thousands of drone images with the goal of creating composite images of Qutayfah using photogrammetry software.
Composites revealed that bulldozers had repeatedly rolled over the trenches in order to compact the soil. The composites also confirmed the 'key finding' that bodies were transferred from Qutayfah and Dhumair.
According to the analysis of the drone photos, color changes were found around the Dhumair trenches. This suggests that soil from Qutayfah was mixed with the soil in Dhumair. According to Dawson, an expert in forensic soil sciences at The James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, Scotland, as well as Rocke, a specialist in locating burial sites with remote imagery, this is what would be expected if soil from Qutayfah, which was dug up along with human remains, had been mixed in the soil of Dhumair.
According to satellite imagery analysis, Dhumair's last trench was filled during the first weeks of April 2021. Qutayfah’s rubble was flattened by the end of 2021, as an effort to erase any sign of the now empty mass grave. The scars left by attempts to cover the graves are still visible in images of both sites.
In late 2021, the intelligence chief who first came up with the idea to move the bodies to Dhumair got one of the final weekly reports on the operation and turned to an officer of the Republican Guard. The officer remembered his words: "Syria has won and is opening itself up to the rest of the world." "We want our guests to find a clean country when they arrive."
Ismandar,
Like Assad and other people
Two former military officers who were familiar with his movements claim that many people in the government fled Syria when the dictator fell.
Ghazal, who was watching footage of thousands and thousands of Syrians flooding into Sednaya prison in the hopeless search for missing family members after Assad's departure, said that the mass graves are the first thing he thinks of. Some of the
Burial sites
Qutayfah was already well-known.
In December 2024 several local and foreign media outlets, including, visited the newly accessible website, which included. An association for missing Syrians also noted that Qutayfah was bulldozed between 2018 and 2021.
No one reported the trenches as empty.
Ghazal who lives and works near the Dhumair Desert said that no one has ever searched the site. It still haunts him.
He said that so many Syrians were looking in all the wrong places. (By Maggie Michael and Feras Dalatey. Khalil Ashawi contributed to this article. Allison Martell, Benjamin Lesser and others contributed to this report. Ryan McNeill is responsible for the data. FeildingCage did the visual editing. Khalil Alfiky and Amr Ashawi took the photos. (Edited by Lori Hinnant.
(source: Reuters)