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As US-Iran tensions fade, oil prices rise as supply risks increase

The price of oil rose on Tuesday, as the prospect of a deal to end the Middle East conflict seemed further out of reach. Iran said it would adopt a more aggressive stance while the U.S. refused to extend a ceasefire. This increased concerns about the energy supply.

A senior Iranian official said on Monday that Iran would adopt a "fully offensive' military posture as efforts to negotiate an end to the U.S. war have stalled. Washington has also ruled out the extension of a temporary ceasefire.

The progress made towards peace talks, and the resumption of oil-tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have slowed down. This threatens to prolong the conflict which the U.S. & Israel started on February 28, when they attacked Iran.

Brent crude futures rose 27 cents or 0.3% to $91.14 at 0003 GMT after reaching their highest level since July 30 on Monday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures rose 42 cents, to $85.04 per barrel, after rising more than 1% earlier in the session, to $85.37. This was their highest level since July 31.

Oil prices have risen to begin the week, as U.S. - Iran relations are becoming more shaky. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst for KCM, said that a deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz does not seem to be imminent. Shipping numbers are also still at a low level.

Ship-tracking data by Kpler revealed that, following attacks on oil tankers, there were only five commodities vessels registered to transit the Hormuz Strait on Saturday, and none for Sunday. This compares with 31 the previous weekend.

Yemen's Houthis launched missiles at what they called a Saudi military vessel and four 'escort vessels' in the Red Sea, according to Yahya saree, the military spokesperson for the group.

The dual 'chokehold' on the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb is still of great importance. These aren't secondary concerns. Waterer, of KCM, said that they are at the heart of the "current narrative on supply risk".

Iran and Oman have been separately negotiating a management agreement for the?strait. They claim to be close to an agreement. Trump, however, responded to these negotiations by threatening to bomb?Gulf State, a long-standing U.S. partner in security.

Media reports claimed that Trump had begun back-channel talks with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

A preliminary poll on Monday showed that crude oil stocks in the United States were likely to have declined last week along with product inventories. Reporting by Ishaan arora in Bengaluru, Editing by Chris Reese & Muralikumar Anantharaman

(source: Reuters)