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Brazil Feb regular monthly inflation forecast at 1 year high

Brazil's regular monthly inflation rate likely sped up to a oneyear high in February, a poll found, from where it should begin to fall back once again in coming months due to abundant materials of farm items and softer economic conditions.

Except for some seasonal impacts, consumer costs in Brazil have actually remained tame considering that the start of 2023, thanks to a tight policy stance by the reserve bank that is causing the economy to cool, despite a raft of modest rate cuts.

Official inflation information on Tuesday are forecast to show a. faster month-to-month clip for February, increasing to 0.78% - most likely the. highest given that February 2023 - from 0.42% in January, according. to the average price quote of 25 financial experts polled between March. 6-11.

We expect a rise of 0.78% on the back of a seasonal walking of. tuition charges, while fuel costs were impacted by the boost of. the ICMS (state tax), stated Mauricio Nakahodo, senior economist. at MUFG.

Brazil's bi-weekly inflation gauge got in mid-February. driven by higher education rates. The sector led a general. rise with a 5.07% jump mainly due to seasonal hikes in school. fees.

On a yearly basis, consumer prices are predicted to have. increased 4.44% last month, slowing down from 4.51% in January. and returning to the official target for 2024 of 3% plus/minus. 1.5 percentage points.

Among the factors behind this is the country's. consolidation as one of the world's leading food producers. In the. most recent indication of development, Brazilian sugar exports leapt. 162% and coffee shipments rose 77% last month.

At the same time, pressure on domestic consumer prices. continues to decrease as Latin America's No. 1 economy slows. down. The Brazilian central bank's modest project of rate cuts. has restrained bank lending.

The monetary authority's criteria for the expense of loaning. is 11.25%. Really high real rates are limiting financial growth. and decreasing business' rates power.

In the medium-term, inflation is now seen ending 2024 at. 3.76%, according to a weekly reserve bank poll among personal. sector economists. The latest consensus price quote was lower than. 3.80% in the previous week.

Broadly, we think that inflation will moderate from existing. levels in 2024 ... as the demand-supply gap narrows, the labour. market cools somewhat, and international price pressures subside,. Societe Generale analysts composed in a report.

(source: Reuters)