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CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation starts to fall, but domestic and international politics pose risks

CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation starts to fall, but domestic and international politics pose risks
CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation starts to fall, but domestic and international politics pose risks

The central bank is expected to hold interest rates through 2027, as they weigh domestic political instability, currency weaknesses and geopolitical risk.

Data from the National Statistics Board revealed on Monday that consumer prices dropped to 10.42% in June from 10.85% in may, and were below analyst expectations of 10.55%. Prices increased 0.06% from the previous month. Central bank officials expect inflation to drop sharply during the third quarter, once the effects of the higher electricity and tax increases implemented last year in order to reduce the biggest?budget gap in the European Union have faded. Political uncertainty following the collapse of the pro-European government and the failure to reach an agreement on a new majority in parliament, as well as the breakdown of the interim agreement to end the conflict between the United States & Iran, increased risks for inflation.

Inflation is expected to return to its target range of 1.5%-3.5% in the third quarter next year.

It held its benchmark interest rate, the EU's most high, at 6.5% earlier this month. This was done to balance political uncertainty and expected?falls? in inflation against a shrinking economic.

The four parties that made up the pro-European broad government coalition in Romania, which collapsed in May, have not yet agreed on a new cabinet formula. This prolonged policy deadlock threatens the country's ability to access EU funds as well as its sovereign credit rating. It is currently rated on the 'last rung' of investment grade.

The central bank is not expected to reduce interest rates until the first quarter next year, according to analysts polled earlier this month. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Niandy, Kirsty Donovan; Luiza Ilie is the reporter.

(source: Reuters)