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UN weather agency: El?Nino could return as soon as May and impact global weather patterns.
WMO said that the return of El Nino weather conditions is expected as early as this May, and could affect?global temperatures, and a?rainfall pattern. El Nino, as defined by the WMO, is a periodic increase in sea surface temperature over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. It typically lasts nine to twelve month. It said that a clear'shift' has been observed, with sea surface?temperatures rapidly rising, indicating a high probability of El Nino developing between May and July. Wilfran Moufouma OKia, WMO's Chief of Climate Prediction, said in a press release that "after a period neutral conditions, the climate models have 'now aligned strongly and there is high confidence on the onset El Nino followed by further intensity in the months to follow." The WMO stated that while models suggest a strong El Nino this year, forecasts are less reliable during spring and a greater degree of confidence can be gained after April. It is well known that the weather pattern can disrupt regional climates. It could?bring increased rainfall to southern South America and the?southern United States?, as well as parts of the Horn of Africa?and central Asia?, while causing droughts in Australia, Indonesia?and southern Asia?. The WMO also said that it can have an effect on global climate. (Reporting and editing by Kirstiknolle, Olivia Le Poidevin)
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Gold to drop by a week as oil prices rise, fueling inflation fears
Gold prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly decline, as?higher crude oil prices intensified fears of inflation and interest rates that would continue to rise, while U.S.-Iran talks were still stalled. As of 0744 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $4,685.23 an ounce. After a four-week streak of gains, the metal is down 3% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell by 0.5% to $4,700.50. Brent crude prices are up about 17% this week, hovering above $105 per barrel. This is despite the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed despite the extension of the Iran ceasefire. According to Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, as long as the risk of a prolonged closure of strait continues, oil prices will remain high, pushing gold prices down. Increased crude oil prices can cause inflation by increasing transportation and production costs. This will increase the likelihood of interest rates going up. Gold is a good inflation hedge. However, with high interest rates, yield-bearing investments are more appealing, and this reduces the appeal of bullion. Wong stated that gold is stuck in a sideways range between the 50-day average of $4,900, and the 20-day average of $4,645 at the bottom. "Everything boils down now to what's happening in the Middle East," he said. Iran showed off its increased control over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with a video showing commandos storming a huge cargo ship in a speedboat. This was after the failure of the peace talks which Washington hoped would "open" one of the world's major shipping corridors. Trump told reporters he thought Tehran was interested in a deal, but its leadership is?in turmoil. He said that he wasn't in a hurry to make a deal, but if Iran didn't want one "I will finish it militarily." The U.S. Dollar is up 0.8% this week, making greenback priced bullion more costly for holders of other currencies. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have increased by about 2% in this week. This increases the opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold. Silver fell by 1%, to $74.64 an ounce. Platinum lost 1.4%, to $1977.47. Palladium remained at $1468.18. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu; Janane Venkatraman, Ronojojo Mazumdar and Subhranshu Sahu)
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India's Asteria is the Reliance unit that has been at the center of a corruption scandal
India's federal crime fighting agency launched a bribery probe into the drone technology company Asteria Aerospace. It is a lesser-known subsidiary of Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrested officials of India's aviation watchdog and Reliance Industries this week on allegations of bribery to?secure? approvals for certain drones imports. Reliance previously stated that it had not authorized or been aware of such transactions. However, the lawyer representing the official from the Aviation Watchdog has opposed his custody. DRONES BUSINESS Since Prime Minister NarendraModi's government liberalised drone policy in?2021, India's drone sector has seen a steady growth. India has 39,000 drones that are permitted and used for public initiatives, such as village surveys, crop monitoring, and village surveys. Asteria Aerospace describes itself as a drone company that offers "actionable intelligence derived from aerial data". According to its website, it helps companies capture accurate information?and perform AI-based visualisation through the use geospatial images captured by drones. Asteria offers services in the agriculture, construction, telecommunications, and oil and gas sectors with its more than 400 drones. Asteria’s drone?services for Reliance BP Mobility?for instance, analysed road traffic and measured vehicle speed to help finalise a location for a retail outlet. FOUNDERS and RELIANCE AQUISITION Nihar Vartak & Neel mehta founded the company in 2011, in India's tech hub Bengaluru. Reliance acquired it in 2019 for $2.45million. Reliance said that the acquisition was part the group's initiative to explore emerging technologies. Reliance Jio Platforms (the group's digital division) controls 74% Asteria according to data from March 2024. Reliance Jio Platforms also plans to launch an IPO in what could be India's largest-ever stock market offering. Asteria reported a surge in revenue?from 11 millions?rupees (117,000 dollars) in fiscal 2020, to 400 million rupees (4.24 million dollars) in fiscal 2024. GOVERNMENT APPROVALS According to the Drone Rules of 2021, an unmanned aircraft system cannot operate in India without having a certificate. Asteria claims to be the first "Indian drone manufacturer" to receive three different types of certifications from the aviation safety regulator. Asteria's indigenous drone AT-15, was exhibited at the 77th Republic Day Parade earlier this year. The bribery case was brought by the police after a tip that the Reliance executive had agreed to pay $16,000 for the processing of three drone import applications from Asteria Aerospace.
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Indonesia will import 150 million barrels from Russia of crude oil this year, says deputy minister
Yuliot Tanjung, the Deputy Minister of Energy in Indonesia, said on Friday that Indonesia would 'import 150 millions barrels of crude from Russia this year. In response to energy shortages caused by the Middle East conflict, Southeast Asia secured crude oil and LPG from Russia. The announcement was made after President Prabowo Subianto and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow last Thursday. The government has agreed to import 150 million barrels of crude oil from Russia to meet the country's needs until the end the year. Yuliot stated that the volume of LPG imports from Russia is yet to be determined. Yuliot stated that Indonesia also seeks to obtain crude oil and LPG in other countries, including the United States. "We import around 1 million barrels a day.?So we can see that with these 150 million (barrels),?it's?still?short. He said that we are seeking additional supplies from other countries including the U.S. Indonesia has signed a contract to purchase oil and gas in the U.S., under the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade. Yuliot stated, "We hope to?meet the crude oil and domestic LPG requirements from various sources." (Reporting and writing by Bernadette Cristina; editing by David Stanway, Tom Hogue, and Ananda Teresia)
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El Nino and the World's Weather in 2026/27
Forecasters say that a powerful El Nino will develop in the second half 2026. This phenomenon is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions across Asia while increasing rains throughout North America and South America. What do forecasters predict? Japan's Weather Bureau says that there is a 70% probability of an 'El Nino' forming during the summer in the northern hemisphere, and Indian weather authorities warn that the South Asian 'nation's Monsoon Season could be below normal for the first time since three years. El Nino is expected to continue through the year, after first appearing in May. U.S. Climate Prediction Center predicts that there is a 61% probability of El Nino in the period between May and July. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts below-average rainfall in the eastern cropping areas between May and August -?the first part of Australia's growing season. The weather models predict temperatures and rains above normal in Australia, Southeast Asia, and India. He added, "Overall I think this will be an ideal year for growing conditions in the Midwest of the United States." We will need to monitor the timing of El Nino. There could be impacts from excessive moisture near harvest. What are the EL NINO and LA?NINA weather events? The tropical Pacific is a climate system with two phases. El Nino is a pattern of unusually high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The heat is redistributed when atmospheric pressure shifts weaken or reverse the normally steady easterly winds. This allows warm water piled up in western Pacific to move eastward, changing global weather patterns. La Nina occurs when the trade winds intensify, pushing warm water towards the western Pacific while allowing cooler water to rise in the east. This causes sea surface temperatures to fall below normal. La Nina can bring above-average rains to parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, but it has a variable impact on the Indian Monsoon, not a uniformly stronger one. La Nina in the Americas tends to cause a wetter climate in northern South America, and a drier climate in the south. The Americas as a whole become drier. Bureau of Meteorology in Australia says that an El Nino happens every three - to five years and a La Nina every three - seven years. What was the impact of previous El Ninos events? El Ninos can vary in their severity and impact. The strong monsoon in 2015 and 2016, which weakened the Indian Monsoon, caused severe droughts across Australia and Southeast Asia. It decreased the production of sugar, palm oil, and grain. In South America, the excessive rains disrupted corn and soybean harvests. In India and Southeast Asia, a?moderate El Nino? in 2009 and 2010 brought dry weather which reduced the yields of rice and wheat staples. El Nino 1997-1998 was the strongest ever recorded. The El Nino caused droughts in parts of Asia, resulting in a reduction of rice production. India however received an average amount rainfall. In the Americas, flooding damaged crops. The last time a La Nina of this strength occurred was between 2020 and 2023. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Naveen Thupkral)
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Gold to drop by a week as oil prices rise, fueling inflation fears
Gold prices fell on Friday, and were on course for a weekly drop. High oil prices fueled fears of inflation as well as higher interest rates in the future as U.S. - Iran peace talks remain stalled. As of 0609 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $4,683.13 an ounce. After a four-week streak of gains, the metal has fallen 3% this week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell?0.6% at $4,697.80. Brent crude prices are up about 17% this week, hovering above $105 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed in spite of an extended ceasefire with Iran. According to Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, as long as there is a risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait, oil prices will remain high, pushing up gold prices. A rise in crude oil prices could cause inflation by increasing transportation and production costs, which would increase the probability of interest rates rising. Gold is seen as an inflation hedge. However, with high interest rates, yield-bearing investments are more appealing, and this reduces the appeal of bullion. Wong stated that gold is stuck in a sideways range between the 50-day average of $4,900, and the 20-day average of $4,645 at the bottom. "Everything boils down to what's happening in the Middle East," he said. Iran showed off its increased control over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, with a video showing commandos in speedboats?storming an enormous cargo ship. This was after the failure of peace talks which Washington had hoped would lead to the opening of?one the world's major shipping corridors. Trump told reporters he thought Tehran was interested in a deal, but its leadership was in turmoil. He said that he wasn't in a hurry to make a deal but if Iran didn't want one "I will finish it militarily." The U.S. Dollar is up 0.8% this week so far, making greenback priced bullion more costly for other currency holders. The yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have increased by about 2% in this past week, increasing opportunity costs for holding non-yielding gold. Silver spot fell 0.5%, to $75.07 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.7%, to $1,991.72, and palladium rose 0.1%, to $1,469.04. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Janane Venkatraman, and Noel John)
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Holcim beats first-quarter forecasts despite construction sector softening
Holcim, the Swiss cement giant, reported better than expected first-quarter results on Friday. It also confirmed its outlook for the full year despite concerns over a'slowing world economy' that is weighing down?on confidence?in?the construction industry. Holcim said its sales dropped 4.8%, to 3,52 billion Swiss Francs ($4.47billion) during the three-month period ending March. This was better than analyst expectations of 3.42 billion Swiss Francs. The recurring operating profit (EBIT), which is based on a consensus of analysts, fell to 431 millions francs. This was higher than the analyst forecasts of 407 million in a company compiled consensus. Holcim's withdrawal from Nigeria and other countries, the wet weather across Europe, and the strong Swiss Franc all had an impact on these figures. The company also reshaped its business portfolio during the third quarter through five transactions. These included the acquisition of Cementos?Pacasmayo, a Peruvian cement manufacturer, and an agreement to acquire the building materials businesses in Colombia. Miljan Gutovic said, "We confirm our full-year guidance for 2026 with our resilient and proven model across all economic cycles, market conditions and business conditions." He described the results of the company as robust but did not mention the conflict in the Middle East. The construction industry has been a bit sluggish since the start of the year. In fact, the Royal Institute of Chartered surveyors has halved its growth forecast for the next decade to 1-2%. Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at?Simon Rubinsohn?, said that global confidence in residential construction and non-residential building had turned negative compared to the end of 2025. Holcim said it still expects to increase its annual sales by 3-5%, after removing currency and acquisition effects, and to improve recurring operating profits?by 8 to 10%. During the first quarter of this year, its results were within its target range. Its organic sales increased by 3.9% and its operating profit by 8,3%.
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Oil prices advance on US-Iran conflict, causing shares to be jittery
Oil prices rose again on Friday as investors were disappointed by the shaky truce in the Middle East conflict and the stalled U.S. Iran peace talks. Futures showed a gloomy?opening for Europe. EUROSTOXX50 futures fell 0.7%, FTSE 'futures slid 0.76% and DAX 'futures slipped 0.25%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan reversed initial losses to gain 0.46%. It was on track to finish the week with roughly a 1% increase. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.85%. Stocks in South Korea, China, and Hong Kong all fell. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.4%, while S&P500 futures were flat. Investors this week vacillated between the hope of an imminent end to war and the fear that it may not happen soon. Vishnu Varathan is the head of Mizuho’s macro strategy in APAC. Iran showed off its tightened control of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with a video of speedboat commandos storming a large cargo ship. Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he ordered the Navy to shoot and kill Iranian boats that were laying mines and increase demining activities. Trump's remarks came only days after he announced that he would extend indefinitely a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran, to allow for future peace talks. Varathan said that there would not be a linear decline in violence, oil prices or volatility surrounding the supply shock. Investors have been looking for excuses to take advantage of the market. I don't think anyone in the market believes this will end in a few weeks. As the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continued, oil prices increased. Brent crude futures rose 0.55%, to $105.65 per barrel. U.S. crude also gained 0.25%, to $96.09 a barrel. The markets, however, have largely ignored the news that Israel and Lebanon extended their ceasefire by three weeks following a high-level White House meeting. The Yen at the Cusp of 160 The currency market was more subdued on Friday. However, the dollar is on track to gain weekly gains due to a renewed demand for safe-haven assets. The euro, which last purchased $1.1677, was expected to lose 0.7% of its value for the week. Sterling was not much changed at $1.3462 but was headed for a 0.4% weekly loss. Investors are focusing on the policymakers' comments about the impact of the war on inflation and economy. Jane Foley is the head of FX Strategy at Rabobank. She said: "In light of the demand destruction implied in?higher fuel prices, it may be a?understandable reluctance on the part of many G10 policymakers" to continue with rate increases over the next few months. Next week, the Bank of Japan will also meet. It is expected that it will keep interest rates at current levels. Before that date, currency traders focused on the yen, which was just a whisker away from the 160-dollar mark, widely regarded as the trigger for an intervention. The Japanese currency last weakened at 159.78 dollars per yen and is expected to fall 0.7% this week. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated warnings about currency intervention on Friday and stressed "decisive action" in close coordination to the United States. Carl Ang is a fixed income analyst at MFS Investment Management. He said that lower market liquidity during the Golden Week, which follows directly after the BOJ's meeting, could provide an opportunity for FX interventions and a knee jerk appreciation of the yen in the range 150-160. The markets will be closed for a few days during the Golden Week, which runs from early May to mid-May. Spot gold prices fell by 0.5%, to $4,670.33 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Kate Mayberry, Sam Holmes and Rae Wee)
Spain's industrial price rises at the fastest rate in a full year, as energy costs bite
The National Statistics Institute (INE), which released the figures on Friday, said that a spike in energy prices caused Spanish industrial 'prices' to increase?at their quickest?rate?in a year after falling for 4 consecutive months.
Industrial prices increased by 3.4% over the past 12 months, which is a significant increase from the revised 6.9% decline in February.
As companies pass on higher costs to customers, industrial prices tend to change before consumer prices.
The rate was distorted by the energy prices which increased at a 7.9% rate. This was 30 percentage points higher than the decrease of 22.1% in February.
INE reported that this was mainly 'due to a 46.3% spike in petrol prices month-over-month, as well 'as a lesser increase of electricity distribution - and gas -prices.
The price of crude futures is about 45% higher than it was before the start of the 'war in the Middle East. Fears of a new military escalation are growing.
INE reported that industrial prices increased?6.5% from February. Reporting by Javi Larranaga, Editing by Emma Pinedo, Topra Chopra
(source: Reuters)