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Falling power rates threaten debt-laden EDF's revival

Falling electrical energy prices are slowing EDF's negotiations with industrial consumers for longterm contracts, four professionals and sources say, threatening the debtladen energy group's longterm financial resources and ability to keep its aging nuclear plants running.

Monetary results for 2023 on Friday will likely reveal development in cutting a few of EDF's 65 billion euros ($ 69.5. billion) of financial obligation and an increase in revenues reinforced by skyrocketing. power rates following Russia's intrusion of Ukraine in 2022.

The lack of forward offers will renew concerns about the. state-owned power business's long-lasting business outlook after. its nationalisation last June. EDF requires those deals to support. its finances and decrease dangers of price swings so it can invest. to extend the life of its 56 nuclear reactors and build at least. six more.

A power rate offer EDF agreed with the federal government in. November intends to stabilise electrical power rates for retail and. commercial clients at 70 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) on. average from 2026 when present contracts expire. The current. breakeven level for production expenses is 60 euros/MWh.

But sinking rates are undermining that technique.

The drop in costs is seriously interfering with both the market. and EDF, said one EDF source who declined to be identified. because the talks are private. He explained the market as being. in a genuine paralysis due to the fact that both sides remain in a wait-and-see. mode.

A lack of deals might make it harder for EDF to secure. financing or injure its credit ratings. Top agencies Fitch, S&P and. Moody's have lower-medium grade scores for its long-term debt.

We'll closely monitor how the quantity of long-term contracts. choices up in time, Antonio Totaro, Fitch's head of EMEA. energies and transportation, stated.

Aluminium producer ArcelorMittal signed a letter of intent. for an electrical energy production allotment contract with EDF in. mid-January. EDF declined to comment on the progress of any. talks.

HOLDING OUT

EDF and consumers have blamed each other for the slow rate. of talks.

The EDF source stated it makes no sense for consumers to. book far forward agreements while costs are trending downwards.

Yet EDF could likewise be stalling, hoping that costs stabilise. above current levels.

Industrial customers are all set to sign offers, Nicolas de. Warren, president of Union of Energy Using Industries (Uniden). stated.

Things are stagnating quickly enough, he stated. Uniden. represents about 70% of France's industrial energy users, such. as Renault and train operator SNCF.

Uncertainty over future costs is slowing investment. decisions for energy-intensive markets even as the federal government. aims to reindustrialize France while reducing carbon emissions,. he stated.

These markets can not live with increasing market value. irregularity, so we definitely require these agreements, de Warren. said.

While the scheme is off to a bad start, there is no. alternative currently on the table, the EDF source said. EDF and. the government stated in 2015 they plan to evaluate its success. around May.

An alternative to the November strategy might be to set a. floor cost for nuclear electrical power sold by EDF, through a. agreement for difference plan for instance, which would. require approval from Brussels.

BREAKEVEN

The French baseload agreement for 2026 has more. than cut in half over the previous year, piercing the 70 euro/MWh level. on Feb. 5 that was set as the market reform recommendation price. On. Wednesday, it struck a fresh contract low of 63.75 euros/MWh.

Front-year contracts traded around 50 to 60. euros from 2018 before spiking in 2022 after Russia's intrusion. of Ukraine when they peaked at 1,200 euros/MWh. They have fallen. quickly over the last year and are now at around 70 euros/MWh.

EDF's other brand-new prices method, focused on setting rates to. offer to rivals such as Engie and TotalEnergies. , consists of auctions for 2028 and 2029 agreements.

Need has actually been lacklustre for those too.

Out of 54 total auctions given that the start of the year, just a. dozen have actually achieved success and at prices below 70 euros, EDF. data showed.

The reasonably low level of participation shows a limited. interest on the part of the French market for this kind of. item, probably due to EDF's reserve prices, which may be. considered too high, stated ICIS analyst Lucca Urbanucci.

The French economy ministry stated it has no plans to help the. group if power costs fall listed below the 60 euros per megawatt-hour. ( MWh) breakeven level. It restated this month that market. reform agreed in November will assist EDF manage rate volatility. and invest in possessions. ($ 1 = 0.9344 euros)

(source: Reuters)