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India's Jindal Stainless warns of possible delays in Middle East shipment
India's Jindal Steel said on Friday that there could be some delays in steel shipments in the Middle East in the near term because of?the conflict? in the region. The Middle East is a small part of the country's export market, but the company remains committed to serving the region. Abhyuday Jindal is the managing director of Jindal Stainless. He said that given the escalating weather conditions, there could be a few?delays? in shipment arrivals. This may be due to the extended?transit times across certain international shipping and airspaces. He said that it would be premature to comment on any type of surcharges. Jindal stated that the company closely monitored the changing geopolitical environment and was prepared to minimize disruptions to its supply chain. "One area of focus is currently the availability 'of certain industrial gasses and raw materials such as dolomite and limestone, sourced (from the Middle East)",?Jindal said, adding that the company maintains a?adequate?stock?levels but was prepared to tap into other sourcing options in order to avoid any impact on production. Several steel companies have also prepared themselves to pay higher gas prices. Reports on Thursday indicated that India's Adani Total?Gas had raised its prices for industrial clients due to a lower supply of gas in the Middle East. Reporting by Neha?Arora; Editing by Mayank?Bhardwaj & Raju Gopalakrishnan
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Bloomberg News: Trump officials are excluding Treasury Oil Futures Trading for the time being
Bloomberg News reported on Friday that the 'Trump administration has ruled out using the Treasury Department to trade oil futures for the time being, citing an individual familiar with the issue. The report stated that officials discussed getting the Treasury Department to get involved but believed its ability meaningfully to affect the market was limited. The global oil prices have increased since the war began with Iran on Saturday, as the conflict has disrupted Middle East supply. Prices fell on Thursday, the first time since six days. This was due to reports that the U.S. The U.S. may intervene on the futures markets. Bloomberg News reported that officials were also hesitant to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve immediately because it was only 60% full. White House and Treasury officials did not respond immediately to comments outside of regular business hours. ? Could not verify the report immediately. On Thursday, a senior White House official said that the Treasury would soon announce measures to combat 'rising energy costs in the aftermath of the Iran conflict. This could include potential action on the oil futures markets. Details of the plan are unclear, and the White House official declined to give a specifics on the condition 'of anonymity' to discuss 'internal issues. They said they didn’t want to get in front of the Treasury announcement. Reporting by Shubham Kalya in Bengaluru, Editing by Alexandra Hudson and Elaine Hardcastle
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Oil prices are expected to rise as the Middle East war continues. Stocks will be volatile this week.
The slight drop in oil prices Friday provided some respite to battered global shares, but the share markets in Asia were still on course for their biggest weekly decline in six years because the conflict in the Middle East shows no signs of abating. The oil prices are on track to make their biggest weekly gain since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. However, they have fallen after news broke that the U.S. Government is considering intervening in futures markets in order to curb rising prices. They remained close to 20% higher for the entire week. Brent crude futures were last trading at $84.73 a barrel. This is on track to be a 17% increase in ebb. U.S. crude oil retreated after reaching a 20-month peak and traded at $80 per barrel last, bringing its weekly gains to over 19%. Michael Brown, Pepperstone's senior research strategist, said: "We see markets (consolidating), for a while, cutting around current levels. A 'wait-and-see' approach is taking (precedence)." Investors rushed to cash this week as the U.S. and Israel war against Iran roiled the global markets. They realized that the conflict may last longer than originally anticipated. The traders also priced in more hawkish expectations of major central banks. They were frightened by the prospect that inflation would rise if energy prices continued to spike. The yields on U.S. Treasuries?have risen by 18 basis points, the most they have been in almost a year. Meanwhile, the dollar is set to make its biggest weekly gain in sixteen months. "The range (of plausible outcomes) of the war has expanded, including both?the possible of an extremely constructive resolution and a very destructive one," Daleep Singh said. He is chief global economist for PGIM Fixed Income. Markets are asked to price "a much fatter set" of tails, with little information about their likelihood or the paths in between. In Asia, EuroStoxx 50 futures rose 0.95% on Friday. FTSE and DAX futures also increased by 0.5% and 0.8%. Nasdaq Futures gained 0.27% while S&P500 futures increased 0.16%. High-Flying Stocks Tumble MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan traded 0.2% higher last week. However, it was expected to drop 6% this coming week. This would be its biggest weekly decline since March 2020. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6%, but was on course for a weekly loss of 5.5%. South Korea's Kospi is headed for the biggest weekly drop in six years. Even high-flying indexes and technology stocks such as the Kospi fell this week as investors scrambled for profits to offset losses elsewhere. Ben Bennett, the head of Asia investment strategy at L&G Asset Management, said: "When dollar rallies and U.S. Yields rise, funding is tightening. This will often exacerbate wider moves, particularly if leverage is involved." DOLLAR IS THE KING Dollar is one of the few winners in this volatile week that has seen?stocks and bonds, as well as precious metals, fall. The dollar's rally paused on Friday but was still on course for a gain of around 1.5% per week, thanks to safe-haven demands and lower expectations about U.S. interest rate easing. The euro, still vulnerable to a rise in energy costs, is expected to drop 1.8% this week. Meanwhile, sterling will see a weekly decline of 1%. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to ease by 40 basis points this year. This is down from 56 basis points a week earlier. The odds of a Bank of England rate cut this month are also lower, falling from a near-certainty last week. By the end of the year, it is expected that rates will be raised by?the European Central Bank? In Asia, on Friday, the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury benchmark was unchanged at 4.1421% after rising 18 basis points this week. The yield on the two-year bond has increased by 20 basis points for the past week. Spot gold, meanwhile, was unchanged at $5,118.79 per ounce. However, it was on track for a weekly decline of 3% as higher yields and the stronger dollar overshadowed its appeal as a safe haven. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman, Jamie Freed and Rae Wee)
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After a wild earnings season, Australia's stocks have lost $91 billion in one week due to the Mideast War
This week, investors were on edge due to a growing Middle East conflict and record earnings season volatility. S&P/ASX 200 index is down 3.8% since last weekend, when Israel and the United States began bombing Iran. It has lost about half its gains in February. The benchmark index fell 1% on the Friday, with many blue-chip stocks falling. Nick Twidale is the chief market strategist for ATFX Global. He said, "Global downturns hit Australia harder than any other jurisdiction, and we may see a real decline if this war continues too long." "Australia will have more topside once the conflict is over." But unfortunately, the conflict seems to be advancing at this time. Investors are worried that rising oil prices will fuel inflation. This is causing a sharp drop in bonds as well. "A prolonged conflict would be a negative for global asset prices, and Australia will not be immune to that," said Phil Cornet. A portfolio manager with Atlas Funds Management. The sell-off this week comes on the heels of Australia's half year earnings season which was marked by wild swings. Profit beats were rewarded, while negative surprises punished. The ASX 200 has seen more than a third (33%) of its companies move by three standard deviations or more on the day they report, the highest proportion since JPMorgan started tracking this metric in 2015. In a recent report, the equity strategists at JPMorgan Australia, headed by Jason Steed wrote: "February's result season brought another record in terms of volatility for single stocks." According to LSEG, the top '20 companies' in Australia, who make up two-thirds or more of the ASX 200 indice, experienced the most volatile 'February in six years. CSL, the biotechnology giant, has fallen as much as 12 percent after reporting an 81% decline in first-half profits. Coles, the country's No. 2 grocery store, has fallen more than 7% since announcing a slow?start to second half. Companies that extract resources, drill oil or operate as licensed, regulated financial institutions are seen as more disruption-resistant, said Cameron ?Gleeson, a senior investment strategist at Betashares. BHP Group, the largest listed mining company in the world, soared 7% to a new record high. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, meanwhile, rallied by more than 8%, its best session since march 2020, following earnings reports that beat expectations.
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Andy Home: The fragility of the Western aluminum market is exposed by the war between Iran and ROI
The Iran War has exposed a growing vulnerability of the West's aluminium supply, a metal that is classified by the United States as a "critical manufacturing input" and by the European Union. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) aluminium prices hit a four-year peak of $3,418 per metric ton Wednesday, after a Gulf producer, Qatalum, a joint venture between Norsk Hydro, Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing and Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing started shutting down their smelter, and another, Aluminium Bahrain, declared force majeure. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is still in place, risks further disruption of a regional hub of production that provides 23% of non-Chinese supplies. High inventories and excess capacity in China have historically protected the aluminium market from such unanticipated supply shocks. Producers would increase run-rates when they saw prices rising. China has no spare capacity and the inventory cover is much lower. This makes the market more vulnerable to disruptions like those currently occurring in the Middle East. DWINDLING STOCKS Daily stock reports from the LME show that aluminium is leaving LME warehouses at Port Klang in Malaysia, at a rate of 2,000 tonnes per day since January. No one has really paid attention. LME Aluminium stocks have lost much of their power as a signal over the past 10 years, as traders and banks competed for metal in order to lock in lucrative warehouse deals. The resultant churn of metal moving in and out the LME's system of warrants obscured any reading through to what was going on in the physical supply chains. The daily stock noise is a ruse to hide the steady depletion from a 3 million-ton mountain of aluminium at the beginning of the decade. The combined registered and off warrant stocks reached 583,000 tonnes in February, the lowest since the LME began publishing off-warrant stock figures in 2020. A significant portion of the remaining stocks is Russian aluminum, which made up 58% of the warranted stock at the end January. This is not very useful to most Western buyers. The U.S., Britain and EU banned the importation of Russian metals in 2024 in order to prevent Moscow from financing its war in Ukraine. The amount of metal that can be used in the LME is much smaller than the headline figure suggests. CHINA HITS BRAKES The change in stock dynamics reflects the profound structural changes that have occurred in the aluminium supply landscape. The Chinese government has mandated a maximum annual production capacity of 45 million tonnes. According to the International Aluminium Institute, Chinese production growth has slowed down from 4% to 2% in 2018. Smelters produced 44,5 million tons of aluminium annually in December. China's trade relationship with the rest is changing due to the production slowdown. Chinese manufacturers are importing more metals, especially from Russia. According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics which uses official customs data, the world's biggest producer imported a total of 2.5 million tons of primary metal last year, including just over one million tons of unwrought aluminum. China is exporting less semimanufactured goods such as sheet, tube and foil. In 2025, outbound shipments dropped by almost 10% on an annual basis, which is equivalent to a loss of nearly 600,000 tonnes in the Western market. Other words, China imports more aluminum metal and exports fewer finished goods, tightening Western supplies at both ends. FLAT-LINING Western smelters are even less flexible than their Chinese counterparts. According to IAI, production outside China was flat last year. The price of energy is the main problem, as it is a key cost component for the electrolytic melting process. The U.S., Europe, and Asia have a lot of idle smelter capacities, but they need to compete for limited long-term energy supplies with other sectors. High power prices are continuing to put a strain on existing plants. South32 has placed its Mozambique Smelter under care and maintenance after failing to negotiate a financially viable power contract. The Iran War is a major threat to the West's ability for longer-term supply. NEW VOLATILITY Aluminium is an essential part of our modern lives. It's used everywhere from cars to homes and food packaging. The energy transition is also a key issue. In 2020, the World Bank recognized aluminium as an "impactful" and "crosscutting" material in all existing and future green energy technologies. It is a metal that faces ever greater price volatility, as the global markets emerge from a period of "surplus" to one in which supply appears more problematic and stock levels are lower. The war in Iran is a warning for an important metal. Andy Home is a journalist. This column is a favorite of yours? Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance is available at Open Interest. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Oil drops but is set to gain the most since 2022
The oil prices dropped on Friday, the first time since six days. This is because the U.S. government has been considering intervening in the futures markets to curb rising 'prices' and issued waivers to Russian oil buyers to ease the supply constraints caused by the Middle East War. Brent crude futures fell 95 cents or 1.1% to $84.46 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.08 or 1.3% to $79.93 at 0440 GMT. Brent is still up 16.4% while WTI is up 19.2%, making this the biggest weekly gain since Russia's full-scale invasion in Ukraine began in February 2022. The gains were made after the beginning of the war on February 28, between the U.S.,?Israel and Iran, who have halted the movement of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This area is responsible for carrying about one-fifth of daily oil supplies in the world. Since then, the conflict has spread to the Middle East's key energy producing region. This has caused disruptions in oil production and shutdowns of refineries as well as liquefied gas plants. Priyanka Sahdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova, said that the halting of activities in Hormuz would have a two-fold impact on the oil market: it would make it impossible to store 20 million barrels a day and prevent the flow into the world. This could cause global energy prices to rise. A senior White House official stated on Thursday that the U.S. Treasury Department will announce measures to combat the rising energy prices caused by the conflict in Iran, including possible action involving oil futures markets. This would be an unusual move by Washington, to try and influence the energy price through the financial markets instead of physical oil supplies. Treasury Department also granted waivers to companies on Thursday to allow them to purchase Russian?oil that is stored in tankers. This will ease the supply shortages which are forcing refineries to reduce fuel processing. First waivers have been given to Indian refiners who responded by purchasing millions of barrels from Russian crude oil cargoes. This reverses months of pressure that they were under to stop the purchases. Kpler, a ship-tracking company, has gathered data that shows 30 million barrels (including floating storage) of Russian oil is available in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea regions, as well as in Singapore Strait. The recent price increase is still relatively modest compared to other price shocks, such as the one in '2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and prices rose over $100 per barrel. Tony Sycomore, an IG analyst, said that it was important to keep this in perspective. Despite crude's nearly 20% increase this month the price is only $3.40 higher than its average for the past four years. Helen Clark reported from Perth, and Sudarshan Varadan in Singapore. Christian Schmollinger edited the story.
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Mideast crude prices spike due to the Iran war and Platts Dubai change
According to traders and data, the premiums on Middle East crude soared this week to multi-year highs as Asian refiners scrambled to find supply following the U.S./Israel war against?Iran, which paralysed Strait of Hormuz traffic, cutting off oil flow. The price spike for Asia's main oil is a major problem for refiners in the region, who are now facing higher costs as they struggle to find alternatives and reduce production. The benchmark Dubai cash premium rose to $19.63 per barrel on Thursday, marking the highest level since records began in 2018. Oman crude and Murban crude premiums also rose, reaching $19.15 per barrel and $17.87. Richard Jones, an Energy Aspects crude analyst, said that Dubai spreads had risen as crude exports remained stranded in the Middle East Gulf. This made price discovery nearly impossible. We expect disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to continue until at least mid-March. Dubai price assessment may be difficult to determine once the current cycle of Oman and Fujairah loading Murban shipment volume is exhausted. ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIES Brent crude surged to July 2022 levels, and its spread over Dubai swaps (also known as Exchange of Futures for Swaps or EFS) increased to $10.42 a barrel on Wednesday compared to 69 cents a barrel at the start of 2026. Brent-linked grades are more expensive in Asia due to the widening price spread. The EFS spike "reflects the difficulty for 'Asia' to replace Middle Eastern crude quickly. Anh Pham is a senior LSEG analyst and said that Asian buyers are more aggressive in their competition for crude outside the strait. "Higher freight rates and longer journey distances make it more difficult for barrels to be shipped from distant regions." Some Asian refiners are still buying crude oil from the U.S.A., Canada, and Brazil, but at a premium. The discount on Canadian TMX crude for delivery to Asia has narrowed from $4 to just $1 a barrel compared to ICE Brent a month earlier. PLATTS DUBAI DIFFERENT CHANGES Some traders believe that the S&P Global Platts Dubai crude oil price assessment has improved the benchmark's performance. Due to shipping disruptions, Platts excluded grades like Qatari al-Shaheen and United Arab Emirates Upper?Zakum as well as Murban loadings from the Jebel dhanna port. A Singapore-based trader stated that only the Murban cargo from Fujairah and Oman is available for delivery. This reduces deliverable crude by around 70%. One trader stated that the price distortion is caused by the exclusion Upper?Zakum which sets the benchmark. In response to S&P Global, the company said that its methodology for Dubai included alternative delivery mechanisms since no one crude stream can guarantee continuity of liquidity. The fact that Platts Dubai is able to deliver more than two million barrels of oil per day demonstrates the'resilience' of the company, even during these extraordinary times. Trade data shows that TotalEnergies was the top bidder at the Platts Window, securing nine Oman and Murban shipments in the last four days.
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The morning bid is a tumultuous market in Europe and the Middle East
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. U.S. European and U.S. stock futures rose?on Friday, while Asian stocks pared their early losses. This was presumably due to a'minor decline in oil prices' as the U.S. It is still unclear how that will work. It doesn't make sense to try and distort derivatives when the actual product is scarce. The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt everything, from air travel to shipping. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who is always eager to get involved in world affairs, said that he would like to be able to decide Iran's next leader. Investors have been in a tumultuous week, swinging between wishful thinking or panic about the potential severity and length of the conflict. The impact of the war has been most acutely felt on the energy markets, where oil is set to make its biggest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine back in February 2022. Investors have priced in more hawkish expectations of rates across the major central banks, driving yields higher. The Asian stock market was on track for its biggest weekly drop in six years. One could forget about the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls that are due later on in the day. The world's biggest economy is expected to have added 59,000 new jobs in February, after increasing by 130,000 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%. Even though it is too early to see any concrete evidence of AI's impact on the labour market, the report will be closely examined for warning signs such as weak job growth or even net loss of jobs, and an increase in unemployment. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. Payrolls of non-farm workers in the U.S. (February) Federal Reserve's Daly Paulson Collins Hammack
Indian shares drop as Mideast War lifts crude and keeps risk appetite low
Indian shares fell Friday, with losses mainly in financial stocks. Investors remained cautious amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict against Iran that has pushed up oil prices and weakened global risk appetite.
As of 10:05 am IST, the BSE Sensex fell 0.61% and was down to 79530.73. The Nifty 50 was also down by 0.59%.
The conflict has raised fears that a wider energy supply shock could further increase crude prices, revive inflation pressures and cloud the global economic outlook.
The dollar strengthened as the conflict continued to show no signs of abating.
Brent crude rose 5% on Thursday to a 20 month high of $86.28 per barrel. It was trading last at $84.4.
India is the third largest crude importer in the world. Higher oil prices can be negative for India.
Ponmudi R., CEO of Enrich Money, stated that persistent Middle East tensions keep crude oil prices high, which raises concerns about a renewed inflation, and tighter monetary policies, leading to investors becoming risk-averse.
On Friday, 12 of the 16 major sectors posted losses. Small-caps and middle-caps both rose by 0.2%.
The two heaviest Indian benchmarks – HDFC Bank (down 1.3%) and ICICI Bank (down 2.2%), respectively – dragged down the financials and banks sectors.
A report stated that Indian refiners were buying millions of barrels of Russian crude oil to fill in gaps caused by?disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz. This was after an?U.S. The 30-day waiver allows purchases of Russian crude oil.
Reliance Industries gained about 2% following the news. This helped limit losses in benchmarks. Discounted Russian crude may lower feedstock costs, which could boost the company's margins.
Interglobe Aviation, among other stocks fell by 2% as J.P.Morgan warned of pressure on earnings caused by?headwinds due to higher fuel costs? and a?moderation in international air traffic because of the Middle East Crisis?
Larsen & Toubro has dropped 2% this week and is down 7.5%.
(source: Reuters)